# Trouble in Paradise (Mafia Game Thread) **URL:** \ **Category:** Thread Games\ **Created:** [October 23, 2015, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585 "2015-10-23T22:52:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2015, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/101 "2015-10-25T22:42:50Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Does it work better than chance? Like, does it work better than randomly picking someone and lynching them? As far as I can tell. It seemed to in the last two games. ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2015, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/102 "2015-10-25T22:46:53Z")
> [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > I’ll just say that my comment about a possible guardian was not meant to be in context as such, it was just a general comment about how I feel. Nor was it meant to be “breadcrumbing” - first I’d heard of the term. > > Anyway, while I am generally in favour of “lynch the lurker” as a valid opening tactic (for the reasons already stated by me and others), I feel at this point we have a real opportunity to catch a wolf cold (as it were). > > **VOTE Prof. Pepperwinkle** > > Prof., if I’m wrong I’m really sorry but I’m having a hard time thinking of anything you can say now that will change my mind. > > Oh, and Astral Rejection, that seems like a pretty weak reason for voting for me, so you’re under my suspicion now as well. Isn’t this climate of fear fun? 🙂 I’d like to suggest you go and read over the last two games here to see why I’m so strong on “lynch the lurker”. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2015, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/103 "2015-10-25T23:07:04Z")
> [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > > [@Biotop](#): > > > > However, if an experienced player is NOT night killed in the first few rounds, we then can reasonably start wondering “why not?”. > > This is fantastic advice that everyone should remember. I agree that we should remember it, but I’ve seen many a wolf try to use this to get a good townie killed. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2015, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/104 "2015-10-25T23:12:01Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Being a n00b, I’m pretty sure I might be wrong. But what I’ve read on mafiascum, I think this smells like an attempt to breadcrumb. **Dead Cat** IS said guardian… > Also being a n00b, Should I have not pointed this out? Did I just doom our guardian? Yep. Generally, if you catch a breadcrumb, you should keep it to yourself and not point it out to scum. But in this case, I just think you’re wrong and that it’s not a breadcrumb. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2015, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/105 "2015-10-25T23:18:50Z")
> [@TexCat](#): > > Yep. Generally, if you catch a breadcrumb, you should keep it to yourself and not point it out to scum. But in this case, I just think you’re wrong and that it’s not a breadcrumb. :smack: ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/106 "2015-10-26T00:16:17Z")
> [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](#): > > As far as I can tell. It seemed to in the last two games. The Dope as a whole has always been against it, generally, though we do not have to be. I actually don’t mind seeing an extremely quiet player die on Day 1. I just feel it is unfair to dedicated players for a non-player to slide through. Yes, this might be a bit ironic coming from me, who was pretty quiet in the last game. Again, I should be able to post from work during this game, though. I will update on here if I can not. ---
**Author:** ![Octarine](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/22d042/32.png) [@Octarine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Octarine)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/107 "2015-10-26T02:31:51Z")
Thing is, many posters might be quiet on Day 1 just because there’s not much to add to the conversation. There’s only so much you can analyze when nothing’s happened yet. Well, that and making cheese puns. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/108 "2015-10-26T02:56:01Z")
Here is a thread some folks might like to read, now or during the Night when strategy is not allowed. [“Let’s improve how we play ‘Mafia’”](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=654556) It goes over many of our theories of the game. It’s from 3 years ago. ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/109 "2015-10-26T03:31:21Z")
> [@Dante\_G](#): > > OK, Astral, why is my vote a poor vote. A few others have voted for Tomba for the same reason and yet you said nothing ill of theirs, except for to say that you would not vote for Tomba yourself. Two things. First, I was commenting on Suburban Plankton, not you. It was SP who had the poor rationale for a vote. Second off, you do know you haven’t voted for anyone, right? ---
**Author:** ![WF\_Tomba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d9b06d/32.png) [@WF\_Tomba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WF_Tomba)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 3:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/110 "2015-10-26T03:37:58Z")
Hmm. Is it scummy to forget that you haven’t voted for anyone? ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/111 "2015-10-26T03:44:07Z")
> [@Dead\_Cat](#): > > Oh, and Astral Rejection, that seems like a pretty weak reason for voting for me, so you’re under my suspicion now as well. Isn’t this climate of fear fun? 🙂 It is honestly my very favorite part of the game. You’re not playing right if you don’t get a few votes thrown your way. Luckily for you, you’re off the hook! > [@snfaulkner](#): > > I’m perfectly ok with a mis-lynch on Day1 with for horrible cheese puns, with no other real information yet. > > So… > > **VOTE PRECAMBRIANMOLLUSC** for this atrocity… This is a bad vote. You’re unlikely (outside of random chance) to catch scum with this vote, and you even preemptively mention how weak this vote is. Not only do you preemptively mention how weak this vote is, but you call it a “mislynch,” which would imply you know Precambrianmollusc is not scum. I tend to think “slips” are usually poorly-phrased posts made by townies, but on the other hand I think a newbie is more likely to accidentally say something exactly like this as scum. My gut has me leaning towards the latter. This is a good place to leave my vote now. **UNVOTE** **Vote snfaulkner.** ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/112 "2015-10-26T03:45:45Z")
> [@WF\_Tomba](#): > > Hmm. Is it scummy to forget that you haven’t voted for anyone? I was somewhat leaning “yes,” but I’m very confused by his post. It feels overly defensive, so I was waiting to see his next response. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/113 "2015-10-26T03:46:44Z")
> [@WF\_Tomba](#): > > Hmm. Is it scummy to forget that you haven’t voted for anyone? I would say no. However JAQ’ing off like this seems kinda… like filth trying to subtly sow the seeds of discourse, wolfie style:dubious: I’m still outraged by the cheese travesties from earlier, so I’m not yet going to change my vote. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/114 "2015-10-26T03:51:39Z")
> [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > It is honestly my very favorite part of the game. You’re not playing right if you don’t get a few votes thrown your way. Luckily for you, you’re off the hook! > > This is a bad vote. You’re unlikely (outside of random chance) to catch scum with this vote, and you even preemptively mention how weak this vote is. Not only do you preemptively mention how weak this vote is, but you call it a “mislynch,” which would imply you know Precambrianmollusc is not scum. > > I tend to think “slips” are usually poorly-phrased posts made by townies, but on the other hand I think a newbie is more likely to accidentally say something exactly like this as scum. My gut has me leaning towards the latter. This is a good place to leave my vote now. > > **UNVOTE** > **Vote snfaulkner.** I was quoting **Hooker Chemical** when i said “mis-lynch”. If there was a “slip” as you say, then it was his/hers. ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/115 "2015-10-26T03:56:49Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > I was quoting **Hooker Chemical** when i said “mis-lynch”. If there was a “slip” as you say, then it was his/hers. You know, that’s a fair rebuttal. In rereading, I skipped over the Hooker quote. I retract my vote, but I still think your vote is unlikely (outside of chance) to catch scum. I just no longer think it’s a good indicator of scummyness. **Unvote snfaulkner.** ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/116 "2015-10-26T04:35:10Z")
I’m trying to catch up on the game after a hellish day at work. Tomorrow doesn’t look much better but i hope I have some real time tomorrow evening to at least get some notes in order. But I do want to get something off my chest that’s bothering me. Can we all please quit talking so much about what happened in the last two games? I have been guilty of this early on, and I plan to stop as of this post. What happened in the last two games might tell someone a tiny bit about a player’s style, but one or two games is a pretty small amount of data from which to really pluck useful information. A player’s style also has to be somewhat influenced by what is actually happening in a game, so “style” from only one or two games might easily be misleading. This is a new game, and whatever occurred story-wise in the last games is irrelevant. That’s why **Prof. Pepperwinkle** ’s chummy post bothered me so much early on. I don’t know you in this game, **Prof. Pepperwinkle** so why should I “mason-up” with you or anyone else? I’m not trying to be rude, but this is a new game. If we have four Scum then anyone I come into contact with has a 71% chance of being town and a 29% chance of being Scum. To start off I will trust everyone here 71%. Further trust _or distrust_ will hopefully be earned. That’s also why I agree with **Astral Rejection** and so dislike the vote of **IRConfused** against **Sario**. Who cares what role **Sario** had in the last game or even the last 10 games? It does not matter. If you are Town and are considering **Sario** , then judge him on THIS game please. Look for a reason to trust him or someone else less than 71% in THIS game. [OOG]If this sounds cranky, sorry. It was a rough day at work and promises to be a rough few months entering into the holiday season. Not my favorite time of year.[/OOG] ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/117 "2015-10-26T12:29:51Z")
Well, Biotop, I haven’t much else to talk about if I can’t compare people’s past styles to the new game. I will, however, wait until later in the week to see who actually has been lurking the past week, since the weekends are always light in number of posts. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/118 "2015-10-26T12:33:20Z")
\*\*For this week’s MMMP, I have a vote count! In the event that this is in any way incorrect, feel free to correct me and then reference rule 8 (not in that order). Prof Pepperwinkle - 3 votes: (Sario 38)(Precambrianmollusc 76)(Dead Cat 100) Dante G - 1 vote: (Suburban Plankton 41) Biotop - 1 vote: (Texcat 50) Sario - 1 vote: (IRConfused 55) Astral Rejection - 1 vote: (WF Tomba 94) Precambrianmollusc - 1 vote: (snfaulkner 96) \*\* ---
**Author:** ![Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/prof.pepperwinkle/32/13627_2.png) [@Prof.Pepperwinkle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Prof.Pepperwinkle)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/119 "2015-10-26T12:51:27Z")
I want to thank everyone who has voted for me. It’s an honor just to be nominated. ---
**Author:** ![Sario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sario/32/18580_2.png) [@Sario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sario)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2015, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585/120 "2015-10-26T13:19:48Z")
On the subject of the previous games: Statistically speaking, a given player is unlikely to be scum multiple games in a row, however it can happen as I myself proved. It is much more useful to look at play styles though, as **Biotop** pointed out, the data set is rather small. My vote on **Prof** was meant mostly as a joke, but there seems to be some momentum building against him that I want to look at before I decide whether to leave my vote or change it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trouble-in-paradise-mafia-game-thread/735585.md?page=7)