# Trump 2.0 begins: looking at possible scenarios with percentages **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 20, 2025, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162 "2025-01-20T16:30:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2025, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/21 "2025-01-21T18:29:35Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Your examples are funny and très Trumpian. 😆 Just to clarify, these aren’t funny examples that I contrived, they’re from executive orders published in the last 24 hours. I just provided interpretations. I don’t have any special decoder ring except that Republicans routinely and clumsily rephrase harmful policies as helpful policies. When you hear a party that speaks of nothing but harm suddenly talk about helping people, this is one obvious tell that you’re dealing with doublespeak. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2025, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/22 "2025-01-21T18:33:57Z")
Thanks for your percentages! I agree that a high “grinding chaos” percentage is likely. > [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > I think that there is very little chance that Trump 2.0 will be in any way better than Trump1.0. He has a more ambitious agenda this time around and has consolidated power. I think it’s likelier because Trump is much less energetic and coherent than he was in 2017. I was shocked when I saw during the recent campaign some clips of him from the 2016 campaign: he seemed like a totally different person. I’m not sure he really has outlined much of an agenda this time beyond tariffs and deportation. Has he “consolidated” power? Perhaps within the GOP, yes. But he has very few people back from his first term, so it will be as if he is starting fresh in any takeover he intends. Except for his own experience, but, as stated above, that is less useful to him in his diminished state. > [@](#): > > I think that they will try a bunch of extreme ideas but find out that they are a lot harder to implement in reality than in the fantasy land generated by Fox news. The result will be a chaotic and dysfunctional US with its status on the world stage severely diminished and a reasonable likelihood of economic crisis akin to 2008. Basically its going to be a giant shit show with nobody but Trump and a few select Oligarchs better off than they are now. Not an unlikely scenario. Any extreme tariffs will be terrible for Big Business, and TPTB will protest loudly. He is mostly catering to the tech bros at this point, but they represent a small fraction of the US economy. I am glad that Rubio will be SoS. Not that I like him at all, but he will be a buffer against any crazy shit Trump would like to try on the international stage. That said, for that very reason, he may not last very long. > [@](#): > > While there is a reasonable likelihood of Trump taking actions that lead to a constitutional crisis, I don’t see it as likely to reach the point of threatening the existance of our democracy. If it does reach that point I see is a more likely that Trump will be deposed one way or another than succeed, and I see it as more likely that he would succeed in instituting fascism that that we break up as a country. I think a schism of some sort is more likely than an outright breakup. Blue states basically saying “fuck you” to the federal government in one or more areas. I simply don’t think Trump has the energy, wherewithal, or time to institute fascism. If he tried to do anything major, such as sending troops into a state to quell any “rebellion,” that would instantly cause a breakup and probably a civil war. > [@](#): > > I am really unclear as to what is meant by domination by outside forces, since in general I would think that that those would fall into one of the other categories. China invades Taiwan, and attempts to intercede fail due to our having a Fox News commentator in charge of our armed forces, would to me count as “Grinding Chaos”. If it then goes nuclear then we end up “End of the US as we know it”. Our military is competent and has contingency plans for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. If China does that, then the military would present their ideas to Trump and the SoD, and Trump would probably more or less go along with their plans. Maybe a few embellishments to satisfy his own ego. That war would then be of historic importance, make any of Trump’s domestic interventions seem picayune in comparison, and dominate Trump’s attention as he fulfills his role of commander in chief. That’s why I have it as a third major scenario. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2025, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/23 "2025-01-21T18:36:35Z")
Oh, I understood that they were real. But they _are_ funny for their moronity and Trumpiness. Agree with the rest you said. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2025, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/24 "2025-01-21T23:19:32Z")
Stock market up big today. > [@](#): > > Donald Trump is still pushing his threats of enacting stiff import taxes on some of his closest allies, including Canada and Mexico, but investors are willing to call his bluff now that tariffs have fallen into the usual cycle of eternally coming “in a couple of weeks”, a common box that many of Donald Trump’s bespoke campaign promises tend to fall into. > **[Dow Jones gains ground as investors brush off tariff bluster](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-industrial-average-extends-rally-as-tariff-threats-appear-to-be-all-talk-202501211756)** > > The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) absorbed newly-minted President Donald Trump’s last-minute pivot away from enacting sweeping tariffs on his first day in office with jubilation. Not sure I’d count on that. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2025, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/25 "2025-01-21T23:39:42Z")
Yeah, the financial stuff is unpredictable. No one can be sure of where they stand with Trump. Trump’s tax cuts benefited me a lot, personally, but my integrity–unlike that of many, many others, it seems–can’t be bought so cheaply. Is it really that hard, people?! ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2025, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/26 "2025-01-22T03:08:03Z")
The stock market seem almost actively anti-American at this pojnt, it goes up when the prospects for the nation are bad and vice-versa. ---
**Author:** ![knavette57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/knavette57/32/3871_2.png) [@knavette57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/knavette57)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2025, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/27 "2025-01-22T05:19:36Z")
I, too, benefit from the stock market gains, as well as tax advantages, but I see many around me who are not benefitting. I would much much rather have less money for myself, and more social programs for others. Yes, just my own personal financial sacrifices cannot do that — but there are probably millions like me, and if we all, somehow, could get it together and pay higher taxes, etc. it would be better for everyone. Even so, I help out my young relatives, and they know I will assist them whenever possible. But I am a generous person. Or a moral one, at least. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2025, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/28 "2025-01-22T05:23:30Z")
Yes. I would trade my personal advantages for a more just and equitable society for all. If we don’t collectively make such a trade, we are not going to last much longer as a society anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2025, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/29 "2025-01-22T21:33:02Z")
So… Trump seems hell-bent on _minor_ to _moderate_ overreach, and I think it’s of the type that will hurt him and the GOP politically. The pardoning of the 1/6 insurgents is really bad for bad guys, I think. Both Vance and Bondi more or less said Trump wouldn’t do a blanket pardon, that he would go case by case. He didn’t. GOP stooges who are being asked about can only say, _A-humma-na-humma-na-humma_, like a Hanna-Barbera cartoon character. Further, these scumbags _will_ reoffend; the law of large numbers alone is enough to guarantee it, practically, while their demonstrated antisocial and criminal tendencies take that likelihood higher. That’s going to be bad press that pops up from time to time. Even without that happening, the talking point that’s been handed to our side is simple, clear, and effective: Donald Trump freed violent criminals who attacked and injured police officers. And that’s just one thing. The man is out of control yet doesn’t seem poised to do anything too big, whether good or bad. That’s poison for the GOP. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2025, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/30 "2025-01-22T21:38:45Z")
I’d agree if it were just those traitors. It tells the next batch of violent traitors that there will be no consequences. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2025, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/31 "2025-01-22T21:44:24Z")
Trump can only prevent _federal_ consequences. A lot of stuff they do would have a local jurisdiction as well. Speaking of which, can the 1/6 traitors be prosecuted under DC laws? Some of them are almost certainly subject to state laws as well, e.g., if they conspired to do something in their home states before traveling to Washington, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/32 "2025-01-23T00:17:34Z")
Whoops, like I said: > **[Trump-pardoned Jan 6 rioter arrested a day later on gun charges: he's also a...](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/1/22/2298501/-Trump-pardoned-Jan-6-rioter-arrested-a-day-later-on-gun-charges-he-s-also-a-convicted-wife-beater?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web)** > > Back in the day, the DOJ would investigate the background of candidates for a presidential pardon. On Monday, an impatient President, uninterested in nuance or details, waved his presidential pardon wand and let every Jan 6 criminal go free— with... ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/33 "2025-01-23T01:57:25Z")
He gave a specific date, Feb. 1, for the tariffs. That’s not the same as “in a couple weeks”. If he does that, prices will rise and what will the schmucks who voted for Trump because eggs were too expensive say? I suppose Trump could say that the price rises were due to some policy Biden enacted in his last week. Are they really so gullible? (Don’t answer that.) ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/34 "2025-01-23T02:33:57Z")
Any tariffs he does are going to be a mess that won’t make the GOP look good. ---
**Author:** ![rippingtons\_fan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rippingtons_fan/32/11767_2.png) [@rippingtons\_fan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rippingtons_fan)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/35 "2025-01-23T03:38:10Z")
I wonder if under Trump, people who oppose him will just start “disappearing” like in Argentina, kidnapped by Trump’s fascist goons and killed. I think that Trump is capable of any unspeakable act. We have a monster in our midst. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/36 "2025-01-23T03:58:20Z")
Well, it’s not as though there would be a note taped to the body, reading, “Killed by Trump’s fascist goons. Do NOT investigate!” So it would be investigated, and the goons would be caught. A huge mess would ensue. “Major overreach” achievement unlocked. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/37 "2025-01-23T04:48:09Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I am somewhat heartened by the lack of “major overreach” in Trump’s executive orders so far Are we reading the same list of Executive Orders? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 7:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/38 "2025-01-23T07:36:21Z")
I’d call it a bunch of mid-level crazy. In 2017, the Muslim ban was pretty radical and hurt a lot of people all at once. We haven’t seen anything on that level yet, IMO. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 8:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/39 "2025-01-23T08:05:21Z")
Two of my transgender friends (both named Jesse, quite coincidentally) might disagree with you. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2025, 8:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162/40 "2025-01-23T08:25:46Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > Well, it’s not as though there would be a note taped to the body, reading, “Killed by Trump’s fascist goons. Do NOT investigate!” > > So it would be investigated, and the goons would be caught. More likely the cops would say “Plant a gun on the body, call it self defense.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-2-0-begins-looking-at-possible-scenarios-with-percentages/1013162.md?page=3)