Trump and a feeling of momentum for impeachment

[HMS_Irruncible]

nm

[HMS_Irruncible]

@aspidistra

‘the fuck? We’re about to go off the edge. If we don’t stop it right now, the momentum’s going to carry us over’

'you keep saying that … Gunna this, gunna that … But ever since you first said we had to do something i myself have experienced literally no probl…OOOOOOHHHHH

… BAMAAAAAAAA did this to meeee…

[Fiveyearlurker]

@Pleonast

At some point Congressional Republicans are going to realize President Trump is making it harder to get their agenda passed. That is the point impeachment proceedings will begin.

He already is. Have we heard anything about health care or tax reform the past few weeks?

[USCDiver]

@Fiveyearlurker

He already is. Have we heard anything about health care or tax reform the past few weeks?

You mean other than the AHCA that was passed by the House 12 days ago?

Yeah, a lots happened since then, huh?

[sleestak]

@Euphonious_Polemic

The apologists have already moved from “He has done nothing wrong” to “He has done nothing illegal”.

Sorta reminds me of someone. I think the last name is Clinton, not sure if the first name was Hillary or Bill. Oh, that’s right, both of them had their behavior excused away this way.

That is the danger in letting politicians get away with shit, it makes it very easy to dismiss real problems as just another political game.

Of course, it’s not illegal if the president does it. Nobody has argued that his recent lip-flapping episode of revealing sensitive information to the Russian foreign minister is technically illegal. But that does not stop folks from bleating “NOT ILLEGAL!”

I full expect that Trumps future actions will move us down the continuum over the next few months, to “It wasn’t THAT illegal”

to

“OK, definitely illegal, but hey, it’s not a capital offense”

to

“Alright, so ordering those killings was bad, but technically not murder, since he didn’t pull the trigger, and he did declare a state of war against the FBI first”

and finally to “Look, we all know nuking those cities was probably a bad idea in retrospect, but it was in the heat of the moment, OK? Cut the guy some slack.”

I don’t particularly like Trump but it seems to me that the Ds have been fucking up by yelling ‘Impeach!’ since before he was elected. Trump farts and someone wants him impeached. By the time, assuming Trump does something worthy of impeachment*, the impeachment card is played it will be so overplayed that it won’t go anywhere. Lots of yelling and the press will have a ball with it, but the public will be burnt.

Slee

• From what I have read so far, I doubt the latest little Todo will get him impeached. That may change but so far I think people are overplaying their hand yet again.

[Fiveyearlurker]

@USCDiver

You mean other than the AHCA that was passed by the House 12 days ago?

Yeah, a lots happened since then, huh?

Apologies. Have you heard anything about health care or tax reform for the past 12 days?

[scr4]

Impeachment can only happen if enough Republican supporters of Republican members of Congress demand it. What’s Trump’s approval rating among Republicans now? Last week it was around 74%, if I remember correctly.

[penultima_thule]

@Euphonious_Polemic

I full expect that Trumps future actions will move us down the continuum over the next few months

… the pertinent quote from Yes, (Prime) Minister.
“Yes, Prime Minister: A Victory for Democracy (#1.6)” (1986)

Bernard Woolley: What if the Prime Minister insists we help them?
Sir Humphrey Appleby: Then we follow the four-stage strategy.
Bernard Woolley: What’s that?
Sir Richard Wharton: Standard Foreign Office response in a time of crisis.
Sir Richard Wharton: In stage one we say nothing is going to happen.
Sir Humphrey Appleby: Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.
Sir Richard Wharton: In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there’s nothing we can do.
Sir Humphrey Appleby: Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it’s too late now.

[HurricaneDitka]

@Aspidistra

Essentially, you’re going to have to actually IRL drive off the cliff before this mass of voters believes that what all those highfalutin’ *edumacated * people kept on saying was terrible, actually is terrible.

To be fair to “this mass of voters”, just off the top of my head I can come up with plenty of examples of “those highfalutin’ edumacated people” crying wolf and being very wrong, so their indifference / skepticism isn’t entirely unwarranted.

@Evil_Economist

Polls in the US this morning had 48% of the population supporting Trump’s impeachment, compared to 40% who opposed.

“Polls” as in plural? Or a singular poll?

@Fiveyearlurker

Apologies. Have you heard anything about health care or tax reform for the past 12 days?

Well, today there was this article:

… lawmakers in the upper chamber have since been working on their own version of the legislation.

McConnell told Bloomberg that Republican senators are currently in “intense” meetings on health care three days a week.

Just because you didn’t hear about progress in your bubble didn’t mean nothing was happening.

[Fiveyearlurker]

@HurricaneDitka

Well, today there was this article:

Just because you didn’t hear about progress in your bubble didn’t mean nothing was happening.

One whole article, huh? What do you reckon the ratio of articles about health care to Comey firing/Russia leaking/Comey memo is? What do you reckon the amount of time Congress is spending on Trump’s fires compared to legislation? Are you seriously going to argue that the constant scandal news isn’t slowing down the agenda greatly?

[USCDiver]

@Fiveyearlurker

Apologies. Have you heard anything about health care or tax reform for the past 12 days?

Well, I work in healthcare so, yeah I tend to look into that more often than others might.

[USCDiver]

@Fiveyearlurker

One whole article, huh? What do you reckon the ratio of articles about health care to Comey firing/Russia leaking/Comey memo is? What do you reckon the amount of time Congress is spending on Trump’s fires compared to legislation? Are you seriously going to argue that the constant scandal news isn’t slowing down the agenda greatly?

I certainly wasn’t trying to imply anything of the sort. I was tongue-in-cheek pointing out that in the Trump era news cycle 12 days can seem like “a few weeks”.

[HurricaneDitka]

@Fiveyearlurker

One whole article, huh? What do you reckon the ratio of articles about health care to Comey firing/Russia leaking/Comey memo is? What do you reckon the amount of time Congress is spending on Trump’s fires compared to legislation? Are you seriously going to argue that the constant scandal news isn’t slowing down the agenda greatly?

I have no idea how much it is or is not slowing down the agenda.

The original claim was:

@Pleonast

… President Trump is making it harder to get their agenda passed.

I don’t know if he’s actually making it harder or not. It wouldn’t surprise me if, for example, his personal lobbying was one of the key factors that helped get AHCA over the hump in the House. But it sounded plausible enough that I wouldn’t really challenge that claim. But then you piped in with this:

@Fiveyearlurker

He already is. Have we heard anything about health care or tax reform the past few weeks?

It was an utterly wrongheaded assertion because, as USCDiver pointed out, his only significant progress on the legislative agenda has come exactly in the time frame you specified (“the past few weeks”). You seemed to concede the point and retreated to this position:

@Fiveyearlurker

Apologies. Have you heard anything about health care or tax reform for the past 12 days?

I had, today in fact, which is why I chimed in and tried to educate you. It wasn’t meant / claimed to be a comprehensive and detailed list of any and all progress on health care or tax reform (which is why I didn’t care for your “One whole article, huh?” retort), but one example that shows that you that yes, progress has been made in “the past few weeks”, and progress is still being made within “the past 12 days”.

ETA: the number of articles is irrelevant to whether progress is being made or not, except perhaps that a dearth might somewhat excuse your ignorance on the matter.

[JohnT]

I will say, the odds have improved since the OP posted, what, 10 hours ago?

[DCnDC]

I don’t think so. It looks really bad right now, but I think there’s still quite an expanse of grey area to explore, spin, speak badly about but not actually do anything, maybe even outright ignore before the Republicans have no choice but to do… something.

[Lantern]

My sense too is that the last three days have been a turning point and Trump is in genuine danger though the whole process may take many months to fully unfold. In particular it appears the Republicans have decided to allow either an independent prosecutor or an independent commission. It’s not the beginning of the end but perhaps the end of the beginning where the relationship between Trump and his party shifts permanently and the party begins considering options they hadn’t before.

Watch the opinion polls. Trump is currently at 40 which is poor but still safe. At 35, Republicans will start to get worried and at 30 they will start to panic. Also watch out for by-election results, and whether Trump starts hurting Republicans in actual elections.

I have always taken seriously the possibility of Trump being removed from office before four years but my scenario was something like this:
a)Trump slowly loses popularity and his approval falls to 35% by 2018.
b)Democrats successfully run against him and re-take the House
c)They initiate investigations and uncover something genuinely damaging
d)Trump’s approval fall below 30% and enough Republicans senators decide that impeaching him is a less bad alternative than a Trump-led wipe-out in 2020.

I still think that Trump being removed before the mid-terms is unlikely but certainly less so than it was three days ago.

[Sage_Rat]

@Lantern

it appears the Republicans have decided to allow either an independent prosecutor or an independent commission.

Link?

[Lantern]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/getting-out-of-the-way

Republicans are now reportedly debating whether to push for an independent prosecutor or commission, two demands Democrats have made for weeks or months but which almost all Republicans have heretofore refused.

[Lantern]

On re-reading that quote, I may have mis-interpreted it somewhat. I read it as saying that the Republicans are now choosing between a prosecutor or commission but it probably means that they are still debating whether to do either at all.

Still at the very least, it appears the Republicans have reached a point where they feel it’s in their interest to investigate this more aggressively.

[adaher]

Speaking in terms of pure politics, I just don’t see a downside to getting rid of Trump. YOu get President Pence, which means far less drama and a guy whose thinking is in step with the Republican Congress.

Plus the earlier you rip this band-aid off, the better. If you want President Pence to win reelection, he needs to serve a good amount of time in office and get good things done. Dragging this out for two years so that Pence can just be the idiot at the podium during an election year is stupid.