Nothing you have posted or linked makes that certain, or even more likely than not. Meanwhile, Trump, by insulting and alienating China, certainly makes it likely that they will retaliate in kind.
Why would they want to honor and respect someone who is taking a hard line against them?
Because they will be desperate to make a deal over Taiwan–and a good one at that.
Chinese state media called Trump “as ignorant as a child in terms of foreign policy.” (http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/12/politics/china-trump-one-china-reaction/). I’m not seeing a lot of respect and awe yet.
I doubt that China is going to roll over to the US – regardless of who the President is – any time soon. They’re a major economic and military power. We’re not going to be able to bully them into doing what we want. We might be able to actually strike real deals with them if we want to negotiate. One component of the deals we’ve had up to this point was that we’d maintain the “One China” facade. But Trump seems to think “making a deal” means “you do what I tell you.” I don’t think that’s going to work.
That’s not Trump’s deal to make. Right now, we don’t recognize (and Taiwan hasn’t declared) Taiwan as independent and apart from China. What is Trump going to agree to - not recognize Taiwan even more?
Trump’s desire to appear tough and push back against China is going to obliterate any chances of any sort of international arrangement to put more pressure on North Korea, and may lead to existing sanctions being totally ignored by China. But hey, Trump gets to look tough for 5 minutes, so he accomplished his mission.
Not to mention all those tens of billions in airline purchases will go to Airbus and not Boeing, Chinese mobile phones will make the sale and not Apple, American farmers will go bankrupt when soybeans and chicken feet get sourced somewhere else, ad nauseum.
Bloomberg newshas a pretty interesting analysis that shows Taiwan is a much greater currency manipulator than China. Go figure, real life is tougher than a tweet based on gut feel or made up news.
Ah yes sparrow, but what you need to understand that they are very keen for the reunification of China, by some point in the next century, or maybe the next.
You think long term planning is the 2018 mid-terms.
China isn’t some little Jersey supplier that thinks they hit the big time when they landed a deal with Donald Trump. And then found out they did a deal with an 800 pound gorilla that renegotiates deals with the threat of overwhelming legal actions and bankruptcy if you don’t roll over and take it like a man. China may not be an 800 pound silverback, but it’s a big enough young strapping alpha male that won’t roll over.
You should look into what Soviet state media were calling Ronald Reagan in the 80s, and then respect and fear he commanded when he actually visited the country. Rest assured, he wasn’t going out of the ass of the airplane with the subsequent humiliations and loss of face.
Donald Trump is assuming office in a few weeks. It surely is his deal to make.
Right now, our President gets bitchslapped and humiliated when he visits China. Let’s what happens when we put pressure on them. So far, they’ve been rattled and put off balance by a single phone call. Good. Let’s keep that up.
I would also not worry about North Korea: if we’re to believe state media (as Bayard insists we must), North Koreans started groveling on ther knees before Donald long time ago.
That would be great. Fantastic even. Really fantastic. US trade deficit with China runs into billions. Not even billions. Tens of billions. Hundreds. Hundreds of billions, really. Half a trillion, perhaps.
Any trade war with China is going to favor US by a huge margin. Really, disproportionate margin. Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of manufacturing that currently occurs in China will have to go somewhere else: some of it will end up in the US, some of it will inevitably go to China’s neighboring countries ( Vietnam, Philippines, India, Taiwan), building up their industrial base (not in case of Taiwan, perhaps, it’s already in place), strengthening their economies, given them more power to oppose China, while simultaneously weakening the Chinese, and binding them closer to us.
I actually have no doubt that China will treat Trump with all the respect due a head of state. That’s what counties with diplomatic tact do. But two things. First, respecting the position is not the same as respecting the person. Second, too bad Trump didn’t get the memo about how to conduct diplomacy with tact.
No one doubts that (well, perhaps Trinopus does), just as no one doubts that China did not treat Obama with all the respect due to a head of state.
Uh, no. It’s not Trump’s deal to make not because he isn’t officially president yet, it’s not his deal to make because he will not have the power to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence if it chose to do so and because completely abandoning Taiwan would like require the repeal of the Taiwan Relations Act, which requires the U.S. to provide some kind of arms to Taiwan for its own defense. Congressional Republicans, despite their mostly fawning moves over Trump so far, wouldn’t be willing to go that far for Trump.
Here’s what they wrote in their own 2016 RNC platform:
The Six Assurances were referring to a speech and policy that Reagan established and was recently affirmed and slightly amended by Congress in 2016. They are:
Ooops. I made a mistake in my previous post. I meant to say that they will respect Trump as a head of state, but this respect will be in the position not the person. Outside of a formal visit where the requirements of a diplomacy require showing respect to the office, they will not show him very much respect because he does not speak or act as somebody worthy of respect.
I’m not sure we’re arguing the same point, so I’ll just reiterate my position more clearly.
Once he becomes President, it will be completely within Trump’s prerogative to issue statements (and pursue subsequent policies) ranging from, for example:
“The United States of America fully supports democratically elected government of Taiwan and, should the government of Taiwan decide to exercise its right for full self-determination, will stand by people of Taiwan as faithful allies should. I will work closely with Congress and Senate to enact or amend any and all legislature, as well as issuing executive orders, pertaining to implementation of this policy. Just as many other countries do now, the United States of America will be preparing for full diplomatic presence in Taipei. We call on all countries in the region to respect the will of Taiwanese people. USS George Washington Carrier Strike Group as well as USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group are now heading towards Formosa Straits for their regularly scheduled exercises.”
to
“The United States of America believes that People’s Republic of China has a right to exercise full control over its own territories. I will work closely with Congress and Senate to enact or amend any and all legislature, as well as issuing executive orders, pertaining to implementation of this policy. The meddling in other countries’ affairs has proven to be counter-productive for the best interests of the United States of America. USS George Washington Carrier Strike Group as well as USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group are now heading towards their assigned home ports, where their crews will reunite with their families and loved ones.”
to anything between these two scenarios.
Well, that’ll be an improvement over current situation, where China does not respect position that Donald Trump will soon occupy or a person, whose position Donald Trump will soon occupy.
Last point first - only the Reagan is forward deployed in Japan as part of the 9th Fleet. The George Washington did a crewswap with the Reagan in 2015 and was re-assigned to the Atlantic Fleet in preparation for a reactor overhaul. Also, there are no regularly scheduled exercises that involves two carrier groups, let alone any such exercises in the Taiwan Straits. If President Trump is going to want credibility on the world stage, then his official statements would need to be accurate.
Most importantly, while the U.S. has adhered to the One China policy, there is a bit of nuance to this policy. While the U.S. has recognized the PRC as the legitimate government of China, and that Taiwan is part of China, the U.S. has not officially recognized that the PRC has sovereignty over Taiwan. Your hypothetical statement from Trump above would be officially changing U.S. policy to do that and would contradict the Taiwan Relations Act and Congress’s adoption of Reagan’s Six Assurances. It doesn’t matter what China promised in return regarding trade, most Congressional Republicans (and no Congressional Democrats) would not be willing to sell out Taiwan completely. Doing so would abandon the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity and give China a free pass to militarily intimidate or invade Taiwan with no threat of a U.S. response.
Diplomacy needs all the words it can get its hands on, not prescribed by 140 character limits.
*Communique
From: Governor, People’s Bank of China
To: PBC representative offices, affiliated financial institutions and trading authorities:
With immediate effect.
All future forward exchange contracts for international trade in goods and services destined for originating from the People’s Republic of China will be designated in either RMB or EUR.
All existing foreign exchange contracts for international trade in goods and services designated in USD shall not be extended and wherever commercially possible be renegotiated into either RMB or EUR.
By Authority*
Global trade is not a bi-lateral system.
Also, you haven’t considered that potentially US manufacturing could grind to a halt over a lack of components. And a huge chunk of the supply chain is in China. Big three auto makers import tens of billions of dollars worth of components from China. A 10 cent spring can shut down a n automotive production line because where else can you source the part?
You are aware that the US government can’t file for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 in the manner of some dodgy US gaming & property development outfit, aren’t you?
But playing your hypothetical for the moment, and ignoring (if it was possible) the profound collateral issues, the US defaults on it’s debt owing PRC half a trillion USD, and offers to pay say 30c in the dollar.
China puts a counter-offer to take 20c in the dollar plus the US’s full recognition that PRC’s One China policy includes sovereignty over the province of Taiwan and navigation rights in the Taiwan Strait.
Would Donald make the deal?
Make America Great Again ™ by reneging on Taiwan?