# Trump can't get more than 50% in the Ignorantowa **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [January 16, 2024, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-get-more-than-50-in-the-ignorantowa/996163 "2024-01-16T12:17:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2024, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-get-more-than-50-in-the-ignorantowa/996163/61 "2024-01-17T19:27:49Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > Democrats are actually pleased that Trump is beating his opponents, because he is the one that Biden has the best chance of beating in the general election. That’s what they said in 2016 too. But this time, we know how that Trumpy-changy\* thing worked out. . I cannot imagine why any Democrat could be pleased that Trump is rising in popularity. . . . \*( it’s a Sara Palin reference. Probably not a very good one, but, I ain’t very good at being witty. Sorry) ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2024, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-get-more-than-50-in-the-ignorantowa/996163/62 "2024-01-17T19:33:49Z")
Withdrawn ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2024, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-get-more-than-50-in-the-ignorantowa/996163/63 "2024-01-17T20:23:51Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > I looked into this. The turn-out was the lowest in years, and significantly lower than the last time. They had about 110K turn out, as compared to: And note, in 2016 Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucus. > [@Chronos](#): > > I’m still not sure what the relevance of all of this is. Performance in the primary has basically nothing to do with performance in the general. Right, see above. > [@Chefguy](#): > > I saw an interesting slant on things in an op-ed this morning, which opined that Democrats are actually pleased that Trump is beating his opponents, because he is the one that Biden has the best chance of beating in the general election. Nope. Neither DeSantis nor Haley have trumps MAGA fanatical followers. DeSantis could inherit them if trump gives him the nod, which is very unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2024, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-get-more-than-50-in-the-ignorantowa/996163/64 "2024-01-17T20:37:22Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > Democrats are actually pleased that Trump is beating his opponents, because he is the one that Biden has the best chance of beating in the general election. But doesn’t someone make this claim in _every_ election? And I’m sure it’s always true, at least in the trivial sense of, out of millions of people, you can find at least a few to have any particular opinion, no matter how far outside the mainstream it might be. I suspect a large majority of Democrats would be quite happy to see Trump fail, because being publicly rejected by even Republican voters would suggest that they’re at least on the path back to some semblance of sanity. Even given how bad any other Republican winning the Presidency would still be. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2024, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-get-more-than-50-in-the-ignorantowa/996163/65 "2024-01-17T21:02:21Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Yet despite barely appearing in the state, Trump ran away to a 30-point margin of victory. My own perspective is that the Iowa caucuses are just too idiosyncratic and non-representative to draw any kind of conclusion regarding the general election. Worse than that, he’s been shitting on the state. He’s been attacking Iowa politicians, said something along the lines of “I wish I was someplace beautiful instead of here,” and encouraged people to risk their lives in the cold while he stayed indoors because it was “too cold.” His supporters like being abused I think. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [January 17, 2024, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-get-more-than-50-in-the-ignorantowa/996163/66 "2024-01-17T22:36:25Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > And note, in 2016 Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucus. And, IIRC, in 2020, Joe Biden _didn’t_ — and didn’t come in second, and didn’t come in third. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2024, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-get-more-than-50-in-the-ignorantowa/996163/67 "2024-01-18T00:31:42Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > He’s been attacking Iowa politicians, said something along the lines of “I wish I was someplace beautiful instead of here,” and encouraged people to risk their lives in the cold while he stayed indoors because it was “too cold.” His supporters like being abused I think. [https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/01/23/464129029/donald-trump-i-could-shoot-somebody-and-i-wouldnt-lose-any-voters](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/01/23/464129029/donald-trump-i-could-shoot-somebody-and-i-wouldnt-lose-any-voters) > “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK?” Trump remarked at a campaign stop at Dordt College in Sioux Center, Iowa. “It’s, like, incredible.” He’s now at the point where he might as well be shooting his supporters directly. ---
**Author:** ![Q.Q.Switcheroo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/q.q.switcheroo/32/5713_2.png) [@Q.Q.Switcheroo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Q.Q.Switcheroo)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2024, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-get-more-than-50-in-the-ignorantowa/996163/68 "2024-01-18T00:51:37Z")
You’d think he’d have more respect for a state with so many Norwegian-Americans…. ---
**Author:** ![Gatopescado](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gatopescado/32/5711_2.png) [@Gatopescado](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gatopescado)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2024, 7:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-get-more-than-50-in-the-ignorantowa/996163/69 "2024-01-18T07:51:55Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > I’d suggest Dopers need to pass a basic _Blazing Saddles_ quiz before being allowed to participate in threads in this forum. 😜 Ditto! ---
**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2024, 8:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-get-more-than-50-in-the-ignorantowa/996163/70 "2024-01-18T08:25:07Z")
Iowa is more German ancestry. There’s a few more Norwegians up nort’ in Minnesota. Whole lotta Swedes up there too, dontcha know. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2024, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-get-more-than-50-in-the-ignorantowa/996163/71 "2024-01-18T12:54:19Z")
Danes in Western Iowa. Elk Horn even has an immigrant museum that really covers most of the middle and Nebraska. A bit all the way to California. [Danish Immigration - Museum of Danish America](https://www.danishmuseum.org/explore/danish-american-culture/immigration) ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2024, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-get-more-than-50-in-the-ignorantowa/996163/72 "2024-01-18T13:16:47Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > He’s now at the point where he might as well be shooting his supporters directly. Well, killing off his own supporters just shows how _strong_ he is! “Look, I’m going to win by so much, I can do _this_ _ **\>BLAM!\<** _ and still win!” “Sooooo Presidential!” ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [January 22, 2024, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-get-more-than-50-in-the-ignorantowa/996163/73 "2024-01-22T23:50:37Z")
I live in Iowa. The one county that Trump didn’t “win” was the very liberal Johnson County, home of the University of Iowa, and there, Nikki Haley beat him BY ONE VOTE. The message is clear: Vote, folks. Anyway, today I was at my volunteer job at the library, and my colleague said that one of her friends was a precinct chair for the caucus, and the county’s Republican Party website said that there would be a pre-caucus meeting at one of the libraries that morning, at 7am. Nobody appeared to question this, because the local libraries do not open until 9am, or even noon on some days, but these people all showed up, and not only were no staff there, no Republican meeting was scheduled there at all. That’s a really mean prank, especially considering the terrible weather we had last week. She said, “Must have been done by a Democrat!” and I denied being involved, but she already knew that anyway. I also read earlier that an AI bot claiming to be Joe Biden is calling up registered Democrats in New Hampshire and telling them not to bother voting. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2024, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-get-more-than-50-in-the-ignorantowa/996163/74 "2024-01-23T00:38:00Z")
> [@nearwildheaven](#): > > The message is clear: Vote, folks. Iowa didnt have an “election”. It had a caucus. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 23, 2024, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-get-more-than-50-in-the-ignorantowa/996163/75 "2024-01-23T21:43:54Z")
Note that the Iowa caucus is a VERY poor election predictor. > **[Claim Iowa voters haven't picked winning candidate in 24 years overreaches |...](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/01/22/iowa-caucus-winners-president-success/72288171007/)** > > Iowa voters have selected candidates who went on to win the presidency in both GOP and Democratic caucuses, as well as general elections. _“Trumpers hate this simple fact: Iowa hasn’t picked a presidential candidate that won in 24 years,” reads the post… Our rating: Partly false_ _The claim doesn’t specify which party or election it’s referring to, and as a broad statement it’s off base. Former President Barack Obama won the Democratic caucus in 2008, and both Obama and former President George W. Bush won general election contests in the state. The claim is only accurate if considering only GOP caucuses and then ignoring the 2020 caucus when former President Donald Trump won while the presumptive nominee as incumbent._ [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-get-more-than-50-in-the-ignorantowa/996163.md?page=3)