# Trump can't win **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 12, 2016, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585 "2016-08-12T18:33:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![BlankSlate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blankslate/32/80_2.png) [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/21 "2016-08-12T20:01:32Z")
Trump got a six or seven point bounce for the Republican convention. That means that some undecided folks watched that clusterfuck and thought, hey, that guy seems like he would be a good president. So no, I don’t trust the American voters. If you’re planning on voting against Trump in November, volunteer to help get out the vote. Complacency is what caused those disastrous mid-term elections. ---
**Author:** ![john\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/c2a13f/32.png) [@john\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/john_L)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/22 "2016-08-12T20:03:09Z")
yes…still has a good chance. look at polls 1 month from now… then after 1st debate . if he’s close to her by then …even better chance. if hillary still has dbl digit lead in swing states… turn out the lights… party’s over. long time regardless. lots could happen. ---
**Author:** ![AndrewL](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3d9bf3/32.png) [@AndrewL](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AndrewL)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/23 "2016-08-12T20:05:16Z")
> [@NeonMadman](#): > > I’ve had this idea running through my head for some time now that Trump might just be running as a shill for Hillary. That is, he intended to get the nomination and then lose, whether by withdrawing from the race at the last minute (which could still happen), or just by running a spectacularly bad campaign. That his whole purpose in entering the race from the git-go was to ensure that Hillary would win. Every time this idea enters my head, I dismiss it - of course it’s silly, just a wild fantasy, couldn’t possibly be so. Just the same, I’m hard pressed to think of what he would be doing differently if my theory were true. I don’t for a moment believe that Trump would ever shill for anybody but Trump. But I do think it’s plausible that he doesn’t want to be president, that the entire campaign was just a stunt to push his own brand. He’s probably gone further than he expected, and now he’s looking for a way to lose or be removed from the process while saving face and being able to blame someone else for his loss. ---
**Author:** ![Chihuahua](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/dec6dc/32.png) [@Chihuahua](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chihuahua)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/24 "2016-08-12T20:06:41Z")
> [@](#): > > Trump is underperforming so comprehensively…it would take video evidence of a smiling Hillary drowning a litter of puppies while terrorists surrounded her with chants of ‘Death to America,’’ said an Iowa Republican. “I saw that video. It was YUGE. The best. I mean, the worst if you’re for Hillary. But it was the best. It was on Fox News I think. Puppies and everything. If this election wasn’t rigged, your be allowed to see it too.” ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/25 "2016-08-12T20:16:51Z")
Anyone who _seriously_ thinks Trump stands a chance is as deluded as Karl Rove was on election night 2012 when Obama was called the winner early in the evening. Karl stammered that you have to wait until the votes are in and the pollsters, even the Fox news experts, told him it was over. Models, doncha know. The current polls reflect what is Trumps doom. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/26 "2016-08-12T20:17:57Z")
> [@AndrewL](#): > > I don’t for a moment believe that Trump would ever shill for anybody but Trump. But I do think it’s plausible that he doesn’t want to be president, that the entire campaign was just a stunt to push his own brand. He’s probably gone further than he expected, and now he’s looking for a way to lose or be removed from the process while saving face and being able to blame someone else for his loss. I am a little tired of this theory . I don’t know how serious he is/was about this whole thing but there just is no way it was a stunt to push his brand. If that was his objective he would never have been so divisive. He could easily have gone off on the “rigged system”, “they’re giving away our jobs” and “Make America Great Again” without all the Mexican/Muslim/etc shit. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/27 "2016-08-12T20:41:09Z")
> [@NeonMadman](#): > > …That his whole purpose in entering the race from the git-go was to ensure that Hillary would win. … Your reading of Trump’s character is that he would _willingly_ put a big “LOSER” label on himself? (And for the purpose of helping out Hillary Clinton, yet?) ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/28 "2016-08-12T20:48:41Z")
> [@samclem](#): > > Anyone who _seriously_ thinks Trump stands a chance is as deluded as Karl Rove was on election night 2012 when Obama was called the winner early in the evening. Karl stammered that you have to wait until the votes are in and the pollsters, even the Fox news experts, told him it was over. Models, doncha know. The current polls reflect what is Trumps doom. Polls drift. There are more than 80 days to go before the election. The polls-only models at 538 and other places put Trump’s odds at 12-21%. Median: 13.5%. Those take into account historical observations regarding the way polls can change. That’s not zero. That’s far from a 5% significance cutoff and is even above a 10% cutoff. And this year is different from the historical record, so you should drive the forecast towards 50% in some way, to some extent. I expect the polling models to drive Trump’s percentages below 5% as the race continues. When that happens, I will argue that they underestimate Trump’s chances: I will probably favor taking an average between the existing models and a 15% baseline. Something like that. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/29 "2016-08-12T21:09:12Z")
Don’t forget that Clinton still has to actually win. Health problems or a scandal could easily do her in. I’m expecting a Clinton landslide. But I expected a Remain result in the Brexit referendum, so I have a poor track record. ---
**Author:** ![Blue\_Blistering\_Barnacle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blue_blistering_barnacle/32/3386_2.png) [@Blue\_Blistering\_Barnacle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blue_Blistering_Barnacle)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/30 "2016-08-12T21:11:26Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I am a little tired of this theory . I don’t know how serious he is/was about this whole thing but there just is no way it was a stunt to push his brand. If that was his objective he would never have been so divisive. He could easily have gone off on the “rigged system”, “they’re giving away our jobs” and “Make America Great Again” without all the Mexican/Muslim/etc shit. > [@Sherrerd](#): > > Your reading of Trump’s character is that he would _willingly_ put a big “LOSER” label on himself? > > (And for the purpose of helping out Hillary Clinton, yet?) I agree with both of you. Whether he was sincere or not at first, I cannot believe that he is in this for anyone else, nor can I believe he would want to lose on purpose. He sure is dragging his precious 'brand" through the toilet- I don’t think he’d do that for giggles. I think he really wants to win. Failing that, he _may_ quit before he can lose. Of course, in the aftermath who knows what he’ll say to save face. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/31 "2016-08-12T21:40:03Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Not at all. Have you heard politicians talk before? Or lawyers? Or lawyer politicians? Regardless of how she will handle the refugee situation as president, I would be thoroughly surprised if she committed a hard “yes” to that question during a debate. She has very little to gain by doing so, and much to lose. This is the key factor. Even if you believe that Hillary Clinton is every bit as bad as Donald Trump you have to concede she’s more competent at hiding it. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/32 "2016-08-12T21:49:40Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I guess you missed that he was actually using Hillary’s own words and that she did basically gave a hard “yes” in a televised interview. > [Hillary Clinton: U.S. should take 65,000 Syrian refugees - CBS News](http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-u-s-should-take-65000-syrian-refugees/) I guess you missed that we were talking about the debates, and not an interview she gave a year ago. Sure, these words could be used in ads too, but so could words used at any point in her life. We were directly talking about the debates and her answering a question definitively about refugees and having that turned into an ad. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/33 "2016-08-12T22:07:41Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I am a little tired of this theory . I don’t know how serious he is/was about this whole thing but there just is no way it was a stunt to push his brand. If that was his objective he would never have been so divisive. He could easily have gone off on the “rigged system”, “they’re giving away our jobs” and “Make America Great Again” without all the Mexican/Muslim/etc shit. It’s the bombast and extreme opinions that have given him strong appeal. If he had made lukewarm speeches, he’d have been run over in the debates and primaries. I don’t think he’s a “shill for Hillary.” :smack: But he never expected to get this far, and doesn’t really want to be President. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/34 "2016-08-12T22:09:50Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I guess you missed that we were talking about the debates, and not an interview she gave a year ago. Sure, these words could be used in ads too, but so could words used at any point in her life. We were directly talking about the debates and her answering a question definitively about refugees and having that turned into an ad. So she would say it on _Face the Nation_ but not in a debate. Solid reasoning. I’m sure she might hedge her bets but with any hemming, hawing or lawyerly jibber jabber Trump can just yell “500% increase, people. That’s what she said!”. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/35 "2016-08-12T22:12:38Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > So she would say it on _Face the Nation_ but not in a debate. Solid reasoning. Something she said a year ago at a different point in the campaign, she might not say in the same way today. What part are you having a hard time understanding? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/36 "2016-08-12T22:20:45Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Something she said a year ago at a different point in the campaign, she might not say in the same way today. What part are you having a hard time understanding? The part where she would get away with denying her publicly stated opinion. But she’s up against Trump so it doesn’t really matter. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/37 "2016-08-12T22:55:42Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > The part where she would get away with denying her publicly stated opinion. > > But she’s up against Trump so it doesn’t really matter. Do you honestly not understand how an experienced politician can give a non-specific answer to a question, even to one they may have answered more than a year earlier? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/38 "2016-08-12T23:06:57Z")
You’re right. Hillary has just a way with the audience, is well beloved and is such a skilled campaigner that it should prove no problem. Thanks for reminding me. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/39 "2016-08-12T23:28:07Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > You’re right. Hillary has just a way with the audience, is well beloved and is such a skilled campaigner that it should prove no problem. Thanks for reminding me. The Other Waldo Pepper said she had no other choice but to give a “yes” or “no” to the question of Syrian refugees in an upcoming debate. I said there’s another possibility. Could she mess it up? Sure. But is it also possible she and her campaign prepare for the question so as not to give a straight yes or no answer? Yep. Why don’t you go back to phone banking for Trump now. He could probably use the help. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/40 "2016-08-12T23:32:11Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > I don’t think he’s a “shill for Hillary.” :smack: But he never expected to get this far, and doesn’t really want to be President. But, at the same time, he doesn’t want to be a “Loser.” So he came up with that idea of letting his VP run the country. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585.md?page=3)