# Trump can't win

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [August 12, 2016, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585 "2016-08-12T18:33:59Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 3

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**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/41 "2016-08-12T23:37:27Z")

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> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#):
>
> .Why don’t you go back to phone banking for Trump now. He could probably use the help.

Seriously pathetic.

On the forward facing side of it, Clinton is not a particularly skilled politician. Certainly not when she’s campaigning. Your confidence that she will easily deflect questions that she’s already answered quite definitively on national TV is misplaced.

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**Author:** ![DiggitCamara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/df788c/32.png) [@DiggitCamara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DiggitCamara)\
**Post date:** [August 12, 2016, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/42 "2016-08-12T23:56:43Z")

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> [@Blue\_Blistering\_Barnacle](#):
>
> I agree with both of you.
> 
> Whether he was sincere or not at first, I cannot believe that he is in this for anyone else, nor can I believe he would want to lose on purpose. He sure is dragging his precious 'brand" through the toilet- I don’t think he’d do that for giggles. I think he really wants to win. Failing that, he _may_ quit before he can lose.
> 
> Of course, in the aftermath who knows what he’ll say to save face.

I don’t think we have to wait for the aftermath. After these last couple of weeks, he’s already starting to lay the groundwork for something like “Well, if I lose, I lose. I have a pretty good life anyway and never needed this. Bye bye, losers!” and/or “I didn’t lose. I CAN’T lose. The election was rigged/stolen by the Crooked one!”

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**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/43 "2016-08-13T00:02:12Z")

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> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> Seriously pathetic.
> 
> On the forward facing side of it, Clinton is not a particularly skilled politician. Certainly not when she’s campaigning. Your confidence that she will easily deflect questions that she’s already answered quite definitively on national TV is misplaced.

It honestly has nothing to do with my confidence in her ability. I just said there’s a possible answer aside from a straight “yes” or “no” answer on the question of Syrian refugees. I’m sure she’s going to come to the debate prepared, and she’s actually pretty good at answering questions tactfully when prepared for them. See: Benghazi hearings. But I, like you, don’t really know what’s going to happen. My only point was that there _are non-binary responses that politicians give to questions like that in debates._

Now it’s getting to the point where I can’t tell if your objective is to pick a fight with me because I mistook you for a Trump supporter yesterday, or just to knee-jerk against anything positive about Hillary. Either way, I’m done engaging you. This has nothing to do with the OP.

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**Author:** ![elbows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b3f665/32.png) [@elbows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elbows)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/44 "2016-08-13T00:06:01Z")

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I think Donald saw a way to get mega publicity ( his one and only real goal all along! ) AND insure a Hikary win.

It almost seemed this week like he was trying to throw the game, don’t ya think?

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**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/45 "2016-08-13T00:11:39Z")

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I’ve been telling you for a year that Clinton would win with 100% certainty. I see no reason to change that forecast.

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**Author:** ![DonLogan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/51bf81/32.png) [@DonLogan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DonLogan)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/46 "2016-08-13T00:16:56Z")

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Trump’s in a death spiral. The polls out in the last day or so slammed the lid of the toilet down, and he’s gotten even worse since then.

It’s not even the middle of August yet and he is laying down the it’s rigged line.

The next step/strategy will be to sic his supporters on the press at some rally, and the press will stop covering them.

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**Author:** ![Tim\_R.Mortiss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim_r.mortiss/32/142_2.png) [@Tim\_R.Mortiss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tim_R.Mortiss)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/47 "2016-08-13T00:29:00Z")

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> [@](#):
>
> Trump can’t win

That’s pretty much what the pundits said about the Republican Primary contest. Oops.

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**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/48 "2016-08-13T00:29:04Z")

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> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#):
>
> ]
> 
> Now it’s getting to the point where I can’t tell if your objective is to pick a fight with me because I mistook you for a Trump supporter yesterday

Actually, you just accused me of being a Trump supporter less than an hour ago. But I guess everyone who disagrees with you is. It must have been so confusing for you a month ago, being unable to decide if it was a Bernie supporter or a Trump supporter whenever you were disagreed with.

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**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/49 "2016-08-13T00:39:22Z")

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> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#):
>
> I’ve been telling you for a year that Clinton would win with 100% certainty. I see no reason to change that forecast.

Well, I won’t breathe easy til November, but this (and even just catching a glimpse of the thread title) gives me hope.

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**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/50 "2016-08-13T00:50:49Z")

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If Trump wanted Hillary to win he’d do stupid things like mock people with disabilities, disrespect gold star families, call on Russia to hack American emails and call on 2nd Amendment supporters to take up arms against Hillary. Until he does stupid shit like that, Trump has a chance.

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**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/51 "2016-08-13T01:05:45Z")

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Never overestimate the American voter, elections are determined by the dumbest and most easily swayed 10-20% of voters. Everyone else knows who they will vote for months ahead of time.

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**Author:** ![Baker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bb73d2/32.png) [@Baker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Baker)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/52 "2016-08-13T01:16:25Z")

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What would happen if Trump died before the election? I most seriously am NOT suggesting personal violence, but the guy’s face looks like a heart attack waiting to happen.

What would the Republican party do? Move Pence up to first place? I don’t think a candidate has ever died between nomination and the election, so this would be something new for politics.

Maybe the new GOP nominee would get sympathy votes. If anything could make this election wierder, having Trump kick off would.

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**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/53 "2016-08-13T01:21:39Z")

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> [@Baker](#):
>
> If anything could make this election wierder, having Trump kick off would.

Weirder? Okay, Trump disappears. Maybe in the middle of a debate when he gets a tough question, appears to be nauseous and rushes offstage, never to be seen from again…

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**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/54 "2016-08-13T03:03:46Z")

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> [@Baker](#):
>
> I don’t think a candidate has ever died between nomination and the election, so this would be something new for politics.

A Vice-Presidential candidate once died between nomination and election: “Sunny Jim” Sherman. He was Taft’s Vice-President in his first term, from 1909 onwards, and was re-nominated for the 1912 election. However, he died about a week before the 1912 election. The Republicans nominated Nicholas Butler, the President of Columbia University, as their replacement VP candidate, but it didn’t matter: Taft and Butler came in third, winning only Vermont and Utah, with 8 electoral votes combined.

It would be more serious, obviously, if the Presidential candidate shuffled off this mortal coil. Would they just move their VP candidate up? A bit difficult, I would think, since Pence in this case never ran in any primary. Put in one of the candidates who actually ran in the primaries, like Cruz or Katich? Sure to tick off some groups in the party, no matter which one.

I think the ultimate answer is: (1) it would be a purely political decision by the party; and, (2) no matter who they picked, would likely split the party in the current atmosphere.

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**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/55 "2016-08-13T03:08:08Z")

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> [@Hari\_Seldon](#):
>
> A terrorist attack, a really big one, especially on US territory, might do it.
> 
> I notice that even suggesting Hillary be assassinated if elected didn’t move many Repubs (McCain, I am looking at you) to jump ship.

You could argue that his recent antics are stacking the chips and betting the house that such an event will occur, and if it does, it’s possible that he could be there to say “See, I told you this would happen.” I admit, it’s a crackpot theory, but it’s crossed my mind.

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**Author:** ![Princhester](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3e96dc/32.png) [@Princhester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Princhester)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/56 "2016-08-13T03:32:12Z")

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> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> I am a little tired of this theory . I don’t know how serious he is/was about this whole thing but there just is no way it was a stunt to push his brand. If that was his objective he would never have been so divisive. He could easily have gone off on the “rigged system”, “they’re giving away our jobs” and “Make America Great Again” without all the Mexican/Muslim/etc shit.

I agree with you. I think he’s just out of his depth. All of us who have been here a long time have come across newbie posters who are used to arguing orally and think they can say something early on in an argument and then pretend they never said it later on. Doesn’t work too well on a message board.

I think that Trump is used to something similar. He’s used to being able to say whatever he needs to say in closed business meetings to sell something, then being able to say something else entirely in another closed business meeting to sell something else.

This doesn’t work so well when you have cameras and microphones following you around all the time, comparing what you said at one moment to what you said to another, and taking the crowd-pleasing bigoted comments you made to a room of cheering rednecks and broadcasting those comments to Mexicans and blacks and women.

He’s out of his depth. And what’s more he is proving to be a one trick pony; _all_he has is a talent for reading a room and saying whatever it takes to please it. He can’t seem to moderate that to account for his need to generate wider appeal outside that room, to win an election.

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**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/57 "2016-08-13T03:35:49Z")

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> [@Baker](#):
>
> What would happen if Trump died before the election? I most seriously am NOT suggesting personal violence, but the guy’s face looks like a heart attack waiting to happen.
> 
> What would the Republican party do?

First, they’d have to put someone in charge of balloons and streamers. I suppose one person could order the food \*and \*the alcohol, but I’d suggest delegating.

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**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/58 "2016-08-13T04:22:02Z")

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nm

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**Author:** ![DonLogan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/51bf81/32.png) [@DonLogan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DonLogan)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 11:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/59 "2016-08-13T11:33:48Z")

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> [@Wesley\_Clark](#):
>
> Never overestimate the American voter, elections are determined by the dumbest and most easily swayed 10-20% of voters. Everyone else knows who they will vote for months ahead of time.

I’m not a crosstabs kind of guy, but I’m not hearing the word “undecideds” much in the polling results this year. Maybe the pollsters are not giving it as an option? I dunno.

In any case, I think if you’re undecided at this point, you’re probably not voting. The risk to Clinton is people starting to say they’ll vote for Johnson because they think she has it in the bag. I think Clinton will end up getting at least half of those, and Trump none.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\
**Post date:** [August 13, 2016, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-cant-win/762585/60 "2016-08-13T11:53:18Z")

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> [@digs](#):
>
> Weirder? Okay, Trump disappears. Maybe in the middle of a debate when he gets a tough question, appears to be nauseous and rushes offstage, never to be seen from again…

A few months later [this guy](http://13458-presscdn-0-97.pagely.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/donald-trump-disguise.jpg) is seen selling apples and oranges out of a cart on the streets of Guadalajara.

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