# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/261 "2016-08-02T16:43:43Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > So, nobody’s going to explain to me how this “Nowcast” stuff works? Well, fine, then, you ever have a desperate need for a tie-dye shirt, don’t come crying to me! > **[A User’s Guide To FiveThirtyEight’s 2016 General Election Forecast](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/)** > > We’ve just launched FiveThirtyEight’s 2016 general election forecast, which projects how the 538 Electoral College votes could break down in the presidential el… Basically, it weights current polls heavily and doesn’t do much data massage. ---
**Author:** ![Dale\_Sams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/779978/32.png) [@Dale\_Sams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dale_Sams)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/262 "2016-08-02T16:59:15Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > Years ago, I had a good (I thought) friend who would do or say some not-good things, to me and to others. I always rationalized these things away and remained faithful to the friendship. Then one day, in a phone conversation, she casually dropped one more betrayal on me, and from one word to the next, the friendship died. It was as if a kaleidoscope had turned and everything fell into a new pattern – an ugly, repellent one that cast a harsh light on the past. I simply could not deny the reality of who and what she was any longer. > > Call it the scales falling from my eyes, call it the tipping point, call it the straw that broke the camel’s back – for sane people, there comes a time when an ugly reality can no longer be denied. I suspect the Khan attacks will prove to be this for some people; that more such episodes will turn other people off; that while Trump will never lose his hard core of support, he will lose more and more prospective voters, in an election where he’s got to expand well beyond his base to win. > > I suspect, **Exapno Mapcase** , that those astounding poll results could be coming from that sort of experience for a lot of voters. I said weeks ago he has 0% chance. That he cannot STFU and says something dumb every day. My GF actually met his campaign manager and I told her to offer my services…but she didn’t want to appear insane. His chances rose when the DNC had their opening shitshow. That was the only real chance he had. To from that moment stop doing stupid shit…start attacking the Dems on issues they can’t refute. Didn’t happen. He will continue saying and doing stupid shit and there’s nothing the Dems can do now that will hurt them. Including bombing more civilians. It’s OVAH. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/263 "2016-08-02T17:04:44Z")
> [@EddyTeddyFreddy](#): > > … It was as if a kaleidoscope had turned and everything fell into a new pattern – an ugly, repellent one that cast a harsh light on the past. I simply could not deny the reality of who and what she was any longer. > > Call it the scales falling from my eyes, call it the tipping point, call it the straw that broke the camel’s back – for sane people, there comes a time when an ugly reality can no longer be denied. … Heh. You seem to be describing the sort of thing that happens in optical illusions like [this one](https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/1e/61/4f/1e614f115c1ce684ecfe950d77f28165.jpg) - where some initially perceive just an attractive woman admiring herself at her vanity in its mirror (the double meaning clearly intended) until at some point suddenly it clicks that we are looking at death’s skull. And for some that perceptual flip _may_ occur and make up their minds to vote Clinton or minimally to not vote Trump … but the sad thing is that some not insignificant number know they are looking at vanity’s death skull and like what they see. Thankfully I think not enough to win the election but the fact that there are so many is still a sad thing. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/264 "2016-08-02T17:07:24Z")
Indeed, **DSeid** ; a sad thing indeed. ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/265 "2016-08-02T17:12:27Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Thankfully I think not enough to win the election but the fact that there are so many is still a sad thing. I keep reminding myself that eight years ago this country elected a black man with Hussein as a middle name. I honestly didn’t give us enough credit, I was a little surprised - and insanely proud, it was the most patriotic moment of my life. Yes, its a sad thing that we still have this much hate in our country, but we elected a black man to be President, and we are on the cusp of electing a woman. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/266 "2016-08-02T17:40:59Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > So, nobody’s going to explain to me how this “Nowcast” stuff works? Well, fine, then, you ever have a desperate need for a tie-dye shirt, don’t come crying to me! It’s “if the election were held today” and I’m always looking to add to my tie dye collection. I prefer blues and greens. ---
**Author:** ![Roderick\_Femm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/roderick_femm/32/14875_2.png) [@Roderick\_Femm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Roderick_Femm)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/267 "2016-08-02T17:51:14Z")
As of 10 minutes ago or so, the Nowcast is showing Clinton at 85%, winning all the swing states. Even the Polls-plus forecast is up to 65%, winning all the swing states except NC. Now that’s a convention bump! Of course the Nowcast doesn’t mean anything except to show what damage Trump has done to himself\* in the past two weeks. Not that he can’t recover or that Hillary won’t stumble (I’m looking for some really nasty October surprises from the Trump camp) but it helps me sleep at night. \*And further burning his bridges, Trump is now endorsing Paul Ryan’s primary opponent (primary this late in the year? Oh well). So is Ann Coulter. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/268 "2016-08-02T17:56:43Z")
What do the numbers have to get to for the Senate Republicans to start scheduling those hearings for Merrick Garland? ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/269 "2016-08-02T18:25:11Z")
> [@Dangerosa](#): > > [A User’s Guide To FiveThirtyEight’s 2016 General Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/) > > Basically, it weights current polls heavily and doesn’t do much data massage. To quote the relevant bit: > [@](#): > > [ul] > [li]The now-cast is basically the polls-only model, except that we lie to our computer and tell it the election is today.[/li][li]As a result, the now-cast is very aggressive. It’s much more confident than polls-plus or polls-only; it weights recent polls more heavily and is more aggressive in calculating a trend line.[/li][li]There could be some big differences around the conventions. The polls-only and polls-plus models discount polls taken just after the conventions, whereas the now-cast will work to quickly capture the convention bounce.[/li][/ul] I think the now-cast will converge to the other models as we get closer to the election, but we’re still a thousand days out, so it’s more for entertainment than for serious discussion. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/270 "2016-08-02T18:28:50Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > I think the now-cast will converge to the other models as we get closer to the election, but we’re still a thousand days out, so it’s more for entertainment than for serious discussion. It has to converge by its very definition. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/271 "2016-08-02T18:32:37Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > A lot of people – even people who aren’t necessarily tea party types committed to seeing the extermination of liberalism – appreciate that about Trump. He’s ‘different’. He talks like a guy in a bar who’s had a beer or two and tells you candidly how he feels about whatever you want to talk about. Sure, at times he talks like he’s had one beer too many, but you forgive him the next morning, chalking it up to occasional excess. I never understood that. When did “most like a tedious drunk in a bar” become a criteria for leadership? What it is really about is a lot of Americans are really unhappy for one reason or another. Too much diversity. Too much PC. Too few mid-level jobs for people who aren’t Silicon Valley engineers or Wall Street analysts. Too much income disparity. Too much constant noise of bullshit coming from too many screens telling them to be outraged. And Trump is the response to that. His fans don’t care about his offensive and ignorant comments because they that’s how they feel. He says the stupid, simplistic things that “everyone knows” but for some reason those elitists won’t say. > [@asahi](#): > > We’re entering new and dangerous territory in our political and social thought and discourse. We’re becoming a society without any sense of self-discipline, decency, or shame. There are fewer and fewer boundaries that define what is acceptable and what is not, and that’s a dangerous, dangerous thing. [I think the author of this NY Mag article (and Plato) would agree with you.](http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/04/america-tyranny-donald-trump.html) According to the author’s interpretation of Plato, we are at a point where we have so embraced liberal Democracy that we are now cynical of any sort of authority or traditional institutions - government, schools, parental authority, experts in the scientific community. All opinions are now considered equally valid. All forms of inequality no longer tolerated. The reason why this is a bad thing is that there are some very positive forms of authority or social hierarchies that should be respected: -Parents over their children (until they become adults of their own) -Teachers over students -Experts over novices -Facts over opinion -Agents of the law carrying out their duty to enforce just laws in a just manner In other words, ideally, young people should be learning from their parents how to become adults. They go to school to learn how the world works and to gain the skills to contribute to it. When they start working, they learn from the experience of their managers and more experienced coworkers. So when you have a breakdown of these relationships, you end up with a society where every opinion is considered valid. Facts become irrelevant. People become unwilling to learn or change. So you end up with Trump. A demagogue who tells people what they want to hear, unsupported by evidence or facts. And people buy into it because they just want their ideas validated without having to be burdened with the rigors of critical thinking. It’s why you end up with a host of other society problems as well. Ageism in the workplace for one. One reason it exists is that there is a perception that experience isn’t valuable. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/272 "2016-08-02T18:40:37Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > It has to converge by its very definition. Not necessarily, though it likely will. Because it puts more weight on recent polls, it’s subject to the biases of the more recent polls. For example, if the most recent poll before the election was completely wrong then the nowcast will be completely wrong, and the regular model, which would average in prior polls, would be more accurate. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/273 "2016-08-02T18:55:12Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > Not necessarily, though it likely will. Because it puts more weight on recent polls, it’s subject to the biases of the more recent polls. For example, if the most recent poll before the election was completely wrong then the nowcast will be completely wrong, and the regular model, which would average in prior polls, would be more accurate. From your own cite “The now-cast is basically the polls-only model, except that we lie to our computer and tell it the election is today.” On Election Day, they are the same. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/274 "2016-08-02T19:01:14Z")
It’s not the fault of 538. Silver clearly explains the models if you’re willing to look into it. It’s the people holding up the result, claiming that it means much of anything at all at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Dob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b2d939/32.png) [@Dob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dob)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/275 "2016-08-02T19:05:36Z")
> [@Dangerosa](#): > > I keep reminding myself that eight years ago this country elected a black man with Hussein as a middle name. I honestly didn’t give us enough credit, I was a little surprised - and insanely proud, it was the most patriotic moment of my life. > > Yes, its a sad thing that we still have this much hate in our country, but we elected a black man to be President, and we are on the cusp of electing a woman. Well said! ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/276 "2016-08-02T19:46:17Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > From your own cite “The now-cast is basically the polls-only model, except that we lie to our computer and tell it the election is today.” On Election Day, they are the same. You may be right. I thought they weighted the polls differently. They apparently do at some point in time: > [@](#): > > As another line of defense, both polls-plus and polls-only weight polls less if they’re conducted in the immediate aftermath of the convention (but now-cast weights them fully). But maybe by election time the weighting differences are undone. I really don’t like the word “basically” in their quote. That’s a word that can conceal a lot. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/277 "2016-08-02T19:52:46Z")
> [@Dangerosa](#): > > Yes, its a sad thing that we still have this much hate in our country, but we elected a black man to be President, and we are on the cusp of electing a woman. We DON’T have that much hate in this country, at least compared to 50 years ago- but now the haters have better soapboxes to stand on. Remember that- Crime is down, violent crime is down, even “gun crime” is down, Unemployment is down, the Economy is Up- life is better now that it has ever been for us Americans. Haters just get more attention today. There’s whole message boards supposedly devoted to say Disneyland or D&D- that have been taken over by trolls and haters who will run off anyone who actually says that they like those things. We have given "teh stupid’ a bigger, better soapbox in this crazy "Interwebs’ thing, and the trolls are fatter than ever. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/278 "2016-08-02T20:37:19Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > It’s not the fault of 538. Silver clearly explains the models if you’re willing to look into it. It’s the people holding up the result, claiming that it means much of anything at all at this point. Yes he clearly explains but let’s be real … saying that the actual odds are pretty much stable and highlighting that generates less clicks than being able to say “UP! DOWN! UP AGAIN! What a battle folks!” > [@DrDeth](#): > > We DON’T have that much hate in this country, at least compared to 50 years ago- … Oh no question that compared to 1966 we are all holding hands and singing kumayah. But it is not all the bigger soapbox either. Trump is the nominee of a major party. His views, hateful, willfully ignorant, arrogant, pandering to White Supremacists and neo-Nazis … are being supported by a large subset of this country, not just by a few nutbars. Fewer than there have been in the past? Very likely so. But the fact that their numbers are still that large is nevertheless sad. Maybe no surprise, but sad. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/279 "2016-08-02T20:52:12Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Yes he clearly explains but let’s be real … saying that the actual odds are pretty much stable and highlighting that generates less clicks than being able to say “UP! DOWN! UP AGAIN! What a battle folks!” > > Oh no question that compared to 1966 we are all holding hands and singing kumayah. But it is not all the bigger soapbox either. Trump is the nominee of a major party. His views, hateful, willfully ignorant, arrogant, pandering to White Supremacists and neo-Nazis … are being supported by a large subset of this country, not just by a few nutbars. Fewer than there have been in the past? Very likely so. But the fact that their numbers are still that large is nevertheless sad. Maybe no surprise, but sad. True, but remember this? > **[Barry Goldwater 1964 presidential campaign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Goldwater_presidential_campaign,_1964)** > > The 1964 presidential campaign of Barry Goldwater began when United States Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona elected to seek the Republican Party nomination for President of the United States to challenge incumbent Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson. Early on, before officially announcing his candidacy for the presidency, Goldwater was accused by Governor of New York Nelson Rockefeller of attempting to galvanize Southern and Western Republican support while neglecting the industrial north > **[1964 Republican Party presidential primaries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_1964)** > > Richard Nixon > Barry Goldwater > From February 15 to June 19, 1964, voters of the Republican Party elected 1,308 delegates to the 1964 Republican National Convention through a series of delegate selection primaries and caucuses, for the purpose of determining the party's nominee for president in the 1964 United States presidential election. > **[George Wallace 1968 presidential campaign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Wallace_presidential_campaign,_1968)** > > Former Governor of Alabama George Wallace ran in the 1968 United States presidential election as the candidate for the American Independent Party against Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey. Wallace's pro-segregation policies during his term as Governor of Alabama were rejected by most. The impact of the Wallace campaign was substantial, winning the electoral votes of several states in the Deep South. Although Wallace did not expect to win the election, his strategy was to prevent either major part... ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/280 "2016-08-02T21:01:58Z")
> [@Dangerosa](#): > > I keep reminding myself that eight years ago this country elected a black man with Hussein as a middle name. I honestly didn’t give us enough credit, I was a little surprised - and insanely proud, it was the most patriotic moment of my life. > > Yes, its a sad thing that we still have this much hate in our country, but we elected a black man to be President, and we are on the cusp of electing a woman. This is true, but that election was quite polarized among racial and ideological lines, and assuming Hillary wins, this election will be no different. The only thing that would make me feel more confident about our country’s future – at least politically – is a massive, massive sweep by center-left and hard left progressives in this election. I could be wrong. I hope I’m wrong. But I don’t see that sweep happening. I see more gridlock, with an even more polarized country that is divided over a political dynasty they love to hate instead of a black guy with a funny name. Unless there is a dramatic collapses of the republican party, I think we’ll see a narrow Clinton victory, with perhaps the Democrats having an ever-so-slight majority in the Senate or a 50-50 tie at best. Not a mandate for change. But that’s what we really need: a decisive mandate for mature, knowledgeable center-left progressives. Not only in federal elections but also in state and local races as well. We need another era of New Dealers to tear down the statue of Reagan and replace with a neo-Roosevelt. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=15)