# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 19
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/361 "2016-08-04T14:29:52Z")
Trump is down to 8% on the now-cast and 22% on the polls-only forecast. This has been a very bad week for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/362 "2016-08-04T14:37:06Z")
World War II was noisy. Sprinkling plutonium on your corn flakes is not healthy. Space is big. Its been a bad week in Lake Trumpbegone. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/363 "2016-08-04T15:10:55Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Anyway, back to the op … the ADD afflicted NowCast is now at over 85% Clinton (from 55% Trump a week ago) and the less excitable PollsPlus is up to 68% Clinton, not the highest its been. Wang’s odds (both random drift and Bayesian) have hardly budged as there have been few of the state polls his system heavily depends on. > > So while we wait for more state polls and see how things settle on the other side of the Olympics (and another potential for a reset by Trump) maybe someone has an opinion and the comparable “priors” systems of Silver and Wang? > > PollsPlus (Silver) assumes that economic fundamentals weigh this race to being close; IOW “priors” in the Bayesian sense is a close race > > “Bayesian” (Wang) uses no fundamentals but assumes that the final result is more likely to stay within 1 S.D. of past variation from longer term polling averages, i.e. longer term polling averages are its “priors”. > > Does one set of priors make more sense than the other to our Teeming Millions? Maybe Wang lurks here because [today’s PEC entry](http://election.princeton.edu/2016/08/03/why-is-the-pec-polls-only-forecast-so-stable/) directly addresses this issue. For any who want to get into the weeds he explains the basis behind his choice of prior and S.D. of current polling to final results and compares/contrasts with 538’s in, I think, a fair manner. He explains the uncertainty in determining what the uncertainty is and that he for now is using the larger uncertainty assumption (a less polarized electorate with more who are swingable, as in from 2000 and before rather than 2004 and after). He gives using econometrically-based priors their props even as he prefers his model that eschews adding in “fundamentals” but does end up with this comment: > [@](#): > > One final thought, about econometrically-based priors (Ray Fair, Drew Linzer; but also Norpoth and others). In such a weird year, we may be past the point where an econometrically-based prior is useful. Linzer and Lauderdale have analyzed their own econometric approach, and found that the uncertainty on such a model was such that it could be useful for making predictions under normal, non-polarized conditions (high S). But we live in Polarized America (low S) and Trump America (highly unusual candidate). An econometric prior based on “bread and peace” does not take into account Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump’s personal negatives and positives. > > In summary, I have doubts about whether anyone should be using an econometric model for prediction. However, an econometric prior can be useful as a research tool to calculate how the incumbent and challenging parties ought to be doing under normally extrapolated conditions – and give us a way of objectively evaluating whether Clinton or Trump was a particularly weak candidate this year. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/364 "2016-08-04T15:15:31Z")
> [@BigAppleBucky](#): > > I don’t know why folks are discussing a Democratic majority in the House. It just will not happen. Sure, the Democratic House candidates will probably garner five or even ten million more votes nationwide, the the GOP will only lose a few seats. > > The Senate, where no there is no gerrymandering to help the GOP, is definitely in play. The Democrats can take it. Not predicting they will, but it’s certainly possible. > > 538 did offer this on the Senate: > > [Trump May Start Dragging GOP Senate Candidates Down With Him](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-may-start-dragging-gop-senate-candidates-down-with-him/) > > Trump may drag down some sitting GOP Senators. House? Very, \*very \*unlikely. But the Dems will pick up some seats. It’s a start. Senate? Possible, but again, the Dems will gain. ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/365 "2016-08-04T15:59:10Z")
When do swing state poll results (rather than nation-wide) generally start popping up? ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/366 "2016-08-04T16:01:44Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > Trump is down to 8% on the now-cast and 22% on the polls-only forecast. This has been a very bad week for Trump. I know. I thought I’d hit the Nowcast first, since that’s about where it was yesterday. Even Polls-Plus has changed significantly (77.7%), and it’s the one that’s supposed to be slowest to react. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/367 "2016-08-04T16:11:19Z")
> [@Tzigone](#): > > When do swing state poll results (rather than nation-wide) generally start popping up? Now. FL Suffolk Clinton +6 two-way +4 four-way. PA Franklin Marshall Clinton +11 MI and NH not swing really but +9 and +17. NC Trump +4. NV Clinton +1. Waiting for something new from OH. VA should be entertaining. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/368 "2016-08-04T17:35:53Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > Gerrymandering works by giving the controlling party slim majorities in many districts and concentrating opposition voters in a few districts. So if everyone votes the way they have in the past, the controlling party gets a disproportionate number of seats. But, if those slim majorities slip away, you get a tidal wave going the other direction. > > I worked out the math for the case of Ohio: Good, concise post on this point. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 11:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/369 "2016-08-04T23:25:52Z")
Nowcast is at 91.5 Hillary (with Arizona and _Georgia_ going blue). Anyone wanna take bets on what’s the highest it will go? ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2016, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/370 "2016-08-04T23:56:15Z")
Say what you want about the value of the now-cast, but it sure is fun. 🙂 Right now it shows Clinton with a 50.2% chance of winning _Georgia_. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/371 "2016-08-05T00:27:06Z")
> [@AlsoNamedBort](#): > > Nowcast is at 91.5 Hillary (with Arizona and _Georgia_ going blue). Anyone wanna take bets on what’s the highest it will go? Well, it could go to 99 or higher. If you clearly establish one candidate has a lead of, say, ten points on Election Day, there is really no doubt they’ll win the election. Georgia flipping in a Clinton easy victory makes sense. Large African-American population, and an electorate that’s increasingly urban, rather than rural. ---
**Author:** ![koeeoaddi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/koeeoaddi/32/408_2.png) [@koeeoaddi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/koeeoaddi)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/372 "2016-08-05T00:32:23Z")
> [@tim314](#): > > Say what you want about the value of the now-cast, but it sure is fun. 🙂 Right now it shows Clinton with a 50.2% chance of winning _Georgia_. Arizona is, …light blue! IIRC, a few days ago Clinton was in single digits. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/373 "2016-08-05T00:37:22Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Well, it could go to 99 or higher. If you clearly establish one candidate has a lead of, say, ten points on Election Day, there is really no doubt they’ll win the election. > > Georgia flipping in a Clinton easy victory makes sense. Large African-American population, and an electorate that’s increasingly urban, rather than rural. Yeah, Georgia isn’t nearly as deep red as most of its neighbors, it’s a state that will probably be genuinely purple in a few more election cycles and could easily be snagged by a Democrat in a down year for the GOP. ---
**Author:** ![ultimate11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/49beb7/32.png) [@ultimate11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultimate11)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/374 "2016-08-05T02:42:04Z")
Polls plus shows Clinton at near 75%. This race looks over to me. Unless the economy crashes soon (I’m doubtful), or something damning happens, there will be no party change on the executive branch of the government. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/375 "2016-08-05T03:51:17Z")
I get the feeling that, if there’s other hacked documents to leak, it’ll happen sooner rather than later. You can’t just let someone sit at +10 for weeks, let everyone assume that the other guy is a big loser, and then hope that a news story drops them into second place at the last minute. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/376 "2016-08-05T03:51:54Z")
> [@ultimate11](#): > > Polls plus shows Clinton at near 75%. This race looks over to me. Unless the economy crashes soon (I’m doubtful), or something damning happens, there will be no party change on the executive branch of the government. If accurate, a 1-in-4 chance of Trump winning is still not something I’m comfortable with. That’s still scary high for me. Those were the Brexit odds, at least [according to the betting markets](http://politicalodds.bet/eu-referendum), at 8 pm on June 22, the night before the vote. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/377 "2016-08-05T04:07:42Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > If accurate, a 1-in-4 chance of Trump winning is still not something I’m comfortable with. That’s still scary high for me. Those were the Brexit odds, at least [according to the betting markets](http://politicalodds.bet/eu-referendum), at 8 pm on June 22, the night before the vote. Talk about Cherry picking, in reality the polls were too close by the end and more polls did show an edge in favor of Brexit. [http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/upshot/why-the-surprise-over-brexit-dont-blame-the-polls.html?\_r=0](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/upshot/why-the-surprise-over-brexit-dont-blame-the-polls.html?_r=0) > [@](#): > > The forecasting error wasn’t confined to bettors, either. Financial markets didn’t anticipate “Brexit,” resulting in a decisive correction in equity and currency markets that usually would have already been priced into trading. > > In a sense, the E.U. referendum joins a pretty long list of election forecasting errors. But this one was a bit different: It was not a cataclysmic polling failure. > > The polls consistently indicated that there was a very real chance that Britain would vote to leave. Polling averages even showed “Leave” with a lead for most of the last month; over all, 17 of the 35 surveys conducted in June showed the Leave side with the edge, while just 15 showed Remain ahead. As for what is going now in the Clinton vs Trump contest, I’m confident that Clinton will win, but it will not happen if we are complacent. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/378 "2016-08-05T04:11:45Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > I get the feeling that, if there’s other hacked documents to leak, it’ll happen sooner rather than later. You can’t just let someone sit at +10 for weeks, let everyone assume that the other guy is a big loser, and then hope that a news story drops them into second place at the last minute. That’s one reason I’ve supported Clinton: They’ve been trying to smear her for decades and nothing’s stuck. They’ve had an eon in political terms to invent some scandal and they haven’t been able to. She has good ideas and is a good candidate, but neither of those things matter if she can be Swift-Boated before she has a chance to do anything. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/379 "2016-08-05T04:14:13Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Talk about Cherry picking, in reality the polls were too close by the end and more polls did show an edge in favor of Brexit. I just picked the first one I found. Do you not agree that a 25% chance is high for something like a Trump presidency? The betting markets today have Hillary at 76%, just like they had on Brexit the day before. I am not cherry picking here. The links to polls do not translate to %age chance of winning. I am fully aware (as I have posted about this before) that some polls had shifted by the end to show that Brexit had a true chance of passing. But what were the odds? The best I can find is what the betting markets thought. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2016, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/380 "2016-08-05T04:24:38Z")
And, remember, too, that was from the day before. There’s still around 100 days to go, and while I can’t expect much higher odds than 75% right now, there’s still plenty of room for Trump to come back. If we’re still at 75% the night before the election, I’ll be worried. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=18) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=20)