# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/21 "2016-07-25T15:44:56Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > Right, it’s an opportunity for a third party candidate to win a few electoral votes. I don’t really think people who say “it’s a good opportunity for a third party candidate” actually know how our state-by-state first past the post elections work. Do you think a 3rd party candidate will win even one electoral vote this year? I haven’t looked, it doesn’t sound like either Green or Libertarian is really catching on yet. It’s not like the Perot phenomena, or even Anderson or Wallace who left the main stream parties to form their own. Maybe November voters will drift but I get the feeling now that voters will stay home or vote against a candidate. That’s not based on any real data though. It will be interesting to look at how the minor players do this year after the convention. I’d think their best hope is in the youth vote that doesn’t feel disenfranchised as much as they haven’t felt franchised yet. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/22 "2016-07-25T15:58:28Z")
I’m wondering where the numbers will be once there are actual debates between the two candidates. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/23 "2016-07-25T16:02:16Z")
Impossible to predict, since the voters won’t be judging the debates by who has the most intelligent arguments or the best knowledge of policy. They’ll be judging based on who they think is more honest, less scripted, and more directly addresses their top concerns. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/24 "2016-07-25T16:06:45Z")
I’m not sure there will be debates this year. I think both candidates want them, but only on their own terms. They may never be able to agree on a common format. I don’t care personally, I don’t consider them debates. They’re more about the media now than the candidates anyway. We don’t need the media asking biased questions, just let the candidates speak, which they will do anyway. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/25 "2016-07-25T16:16:18Z")
Oh, there will be debated if the race is still close. I think they both have utmost confidence that they can dominate the other and they are probably both right. Clinton will dominate Trump intellectually and Trump will dominate her on getting to the point and seeming more straightforward and authentic. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/26 "2016-07-25T16:19:17Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > I’m not sure there will be debates this year. I think both candidates want them, but only on their own terms. They may never be able to agree on a common format. Then whoever proposes reasonable terms gets to crow about the cowardice of her opponent, who was too afraid to go one-on-one if _X_ and _Y_ and _Z_. She can just keep banging away on that, every day, every week, clear and simple and _unobjectionable_ stuff, and what is he hiding from? Sure, that won’t work if one of the terms is a little dubious. It won’t work if there’s even a hint of Well-I’m-Not-Sure-I’d-Agree-To-That. But hit it straight up the middle and win in the court of public opinion by default. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/27 "2016-07-25T16:54:14Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > I’m not sure there will be debates this year. I think both candidates want them, but only on their own terms. They may never be able to agree on a common format. I don’t care personally, I don’t consider them debates. They’re more about the media now than the candidates anyway. We don’t need the media asking biased questions, just let the candidates speak, which they will do anyway. The debate dates, times, locations and formats have already been set. There are three Presidential debates and one Vice Presidential debate. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/28 "2016-07-25T17:01:13Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > The debate dates, times, locations and formats have already been set. There are three Presidential debates and one Vice Presidential debate. Which is SOP and has been for some time now. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/29 "2016-07-25T17:09:43Z")
> [@LonghornDave](#): > > Both Democrats and Republicans fucked up monumentally. They each chose unelectable candidates. A Romney-type against Clinton would be a blow out win for Republicans. Biden would be a blow out win by Democrats. It really is an opportunity for a good third party candidate. Clinton is only "unelectable " because of two decades of lies put out by Karl Rove & co. Half of which the Bernie campaign helped promulgate. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/30 "2016-07-25T17:10:49Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The Democrats can still change candidates. Clinton does not have a pledged delegate majority, does she? If not, then the superdelegates can vote against her and then they can select a new candidate. No one is gonna try and throw out the huge margin Clinton received in the popular vote. There’d be riots. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/31 "2016-07-25T17:12:57Z")
How deep is her support, really? Is there any person here on this board who would actually be enraged if Biden was nominated? ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/32 "2016-07-25T17:16:23Z")
Yawn. It’s a non issue, and replacing HRC isn’t going to happen. I’m surprised you keep finding people who will gladly chase you down this rabbit hole. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/33 "2016-07-25T17:16:40Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > How deep is her support, really? Is there any person here on this board who would actually be enraged if Biden was nominated? If there was some legitimate reason (e.g. Hillary keels over), I’d be fine with it. But just for the hell of it, rejecting all the voting that happened? I’d be pissed, and so would almost all Democrats. The primaries should be respected, unless there’s an overwhelming reason (like a dead/dying candidate) to pick a different path. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/34 "2016-07-25T17:17:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > They’ll be judging based on who they think is more honest, less scripted, and more directly addresses their top concerns. Which doesn’t mean jack, seeing as how with the right marketing you could convince the public to gargle with floor cleaner. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/35 "2016-07-25T17:18:48Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > If there was some legitimate reason (e.g. Hillary keels over), I’d be fine with it. But just for the hell of it, rejecting all the voting that happened? I’d be pissed, and so would almost all Democrats. The primaries should be respected, unless there’s an overwhelming reason (like a dead/dying candidate) to pick a different path. I would think that losing to Donald freakin’ Trump would be a pretty good reason to want a new candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/36 "2016-07-25T17:23:09Z")
It’s interesting to note that in their long-term forecast Hillary still wins 53.5 to 46.5. That’s still a pretty decent win in Presidential Politics. AND [That forecast is assuming](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/) Trump wins in FL, NC, OH, IA, NV and AZ. That’s a heavy lift and even that assumes a Trump loss by 15+ in the EV. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/37 "2016-07-25T17:25:59Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Do you think a 3rd party candidate will win even one electoral vote this year? Gary Johnson does have a few of the smaller states where his support is not inconsiderable. The odds are against it but if Trump and Clinton are sufficiently covered in mud by November, and Johnson were to really work it hard in a place where he has a lot of support, like Montana, you never know. Sure, spending a lot of his time chasing Montana’s 3 EVs would mean conceding that national aspirations are fictional. It would be a huge symbolic victory, though. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/38 "2016-07-25T17:27:41Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I would think that losing to Donald freakin’ Trump would be a pretty good reason to want a new candidate. And you would think that your party overwhelmingly nominating Donald freakin’ Trump would be a pretty good reason to want a new party. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/39 "2016-07-25T17:29:12Z")
It’s too late for us, I called for the convention to reject Trump. Democrats don’t even have to change their rules to reject Clinton. This is what the superdelegates are for. Why have them at all if not for situations like this? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 25, 2016, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/40 "2016-07-25T17:31:36Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > How deep is her support, really? Is there any person here on this board who would actually be enraged if Biden was nominated? Yes, you dont ignore the voice of the people like that. Besides Karl Rove would simply turn the Biden hate machine on, full of lies, etc. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=3)