# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 23
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2016, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/441 "2016-08-06T18:33:13Z")
That is the function of the alpha lemming, leadership. “My fellow lemmings, we have arrived, we are on the very edge of the precipice! Follow meeeeeee…!” Of course, maybe he’s pushed, and everybody else turns around and goes home. ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2016, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/442 "2016-08-06T18:55:34Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > We do not “know” it, but we strongly suspect it. Why? But that’s at a given state of the race, presumably now’s, Trump down ~7% in RCP avg. No turnout surprise or skew of results by key state v national is likely to overcome a margin like that. However back when the race was within a couple or less, there as much less certainty if turnout could overturn such a margin, just by manipulating what if’s within what you think is realistic. Likewise if Trump’s basic Registered Voter standing improves again, no idea if it will. And the two even interact, again to the extent a group’s turnout is influenced by ‘being with a winner’ (makes no sense, but I think it influences some people) v ‘no hope why bother’. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2016, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/443 "2016-08-06T19:28:36Z")
> [@Corry\_El](#): > > But that’s at a given state of the race, presumably now’s, Trump down ~7% in RCP avg. No turnout surprise or skew of results by key state v national is likely to overcome a margin like that. … I’m thinking you are not understanding the point. The point is that historically the White non-college educated demographic is not like the college educated White or Black demographic in turnout - they vote much less often. Not as low as the Hispanic or Asian demographics but not much better either. The Marist poll, just using one with the demographics broken out, which already gives a huge Clinton lead, would give an even larger one if the pollster was not crediting White non-college educated with much greater turnout than they have had in the past. IOW the poll _is skewed_ towards Trump, granting an outrageous White non-college-educated turnout, and comes up with a 15 point Clinton lead. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2016, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/444 "2016-08-06T20:19:23Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Well, don’t keep us in suspense! Did you survive? > [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I was on that flight. I’m sorry to report, we didn’t. There ya go. So let’s just hope this election has a better outcome, eh? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2016, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/445 "2016-08-06T21:52:10Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I was on that flight. I’m sorry to report, we didn’t. Where did they bury the survivors?😛 ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [August 6, 2016, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/446 "2016-08-06T22:20:00Z")
> [@Lakai](#): > > [Election Update: Trump’s Slump Deepens In The Polls](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trumps-slump-deepens-in-polls/) > Clinton has increased her lead in the polls since the convention. She has about the same lead as Obama did over McCain in 2008 - around 7 percentage points. In the [RCP average](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html) she’s at 47 and Trump is at 40. > > It is my hope that she can increase it even further. Maybe during the debates she can knock Trump into the low 30s. If her lead persists, that will, at least, make it much more likely that Trump _will_ debate (instead of making excuses). But as many have said, a Clinton lead should not be regarded with complacence. The polls won’t tell us enough about who will actually show up to vote–a crucial factor. The time to feel relieved and relaxed won’t come until November 9th. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/447 "2016-08-07T05:27:01Z")
A July 2016 Pew report breaks down the demographics of Clinton’s and Trump’s support. Clinton enjoyed a strong lead overall: 51% preferred Clinton vs. 42% for Donald Trump. Below are the groupings that **gave Trump over 50% support** : Republican or Lean Republican: 85% (vs. 8% for Clinton.) Whites: 51% Non-college whites: 57% Men 50+: 56% Married Men: 56% These groups **gave Hillary Clinton over 60%** : Dem/Lean Dem: 91% Black: 91% Hispanic: 66% 18-29: 60% Women 18-49: 62% Women 18-34: 69% Unmarried Women: 65% Family Income \<$30,000: 62% Post-Grad: 60% > **[2. Voter general election preferences](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2016/07/07/2-voter-general-election-preferences/)** > > Ahead of the party conventions – and four months before the general election – Hillary Clinton holds a significant edge over Donald Trump in voter I was disappointed by the lack of regional breakdowns. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/448 "2016-08-08T19:01:18Z")
Latest 538 numbers: Polls-Plus: 78.7% Polls-only: 86.6%, including GA and AZ NowCast: 95.4%, including GA, AZ, and SC ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/449 "2016-08-08T19:03:02Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Latest 538 numbers: > > Polls-Plus: 78.7% > > Polls-only: 86.6%, including GA and AZ > > NowCast: 95.4%, including GA, AZ, and SC Not high enough! {cracks whip} ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/450 "2016-08-08T19:05:46Z")
When Alabama is shown to be at least 98.8% for Hillary, I’ll sleep well. Or I wake up on November 9 to headlines announcing Hillary as our 45th president, whichever comes first. ---
**Author:** ![glowacks](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/glowacks/32/5548_2.png) [@glowacks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/glowacks)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/451 "2016-08-08T20:30:16Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Latest 538 numbers: > > Polls-Plus: 78.7% > > Polls-only: 86.6%, including GA and AZ > > NowCast: 95.4%, including GA, AZ, and SC Most recent poll came in a few minutes after this post and it showed Clinton with 51% in Illinois to Trump’s 32%. Apparently the model expected her to have more support there and this was enough information to shade those numbers down slightly. Down .4% in polls-plus, .1% in Polls-only and NowCast, and SC flipped back to pink in the latter. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/452 "2016-08-08T21:15:35Z")
Monmouth poll out, gave Hillary a 50-37% advantage. Nate Silver tweeted the following about this poll: > [@](#): > > Why was Monmouth a big deal? > > - Very recent > - Likely voter screen helped Clinton (unusual for a Dem) > - Highly-rated pollster > - Clinton at 50% ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/453 "2016-08-08T21:42:26Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > NowCast: 95.4%, including GA, AZ, and SC SC. Where I live? I NO LONGER UNDERSTAND THE WORLD!!! ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/454 "2016-08-09T00:32:45Z")
See! Trump was right. The fix is in!! ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/455 "2016-08-09T00:39:17Z")
Anybody who could put together the planning, logistics, and secrecy of a large-scale, multi-million vote scam by in-person voter fraud should be elected President anyway, there is no point in resisting such a mind. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/456 "2016-08-09T01:05:08Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Monmouth poll out, gave Hillary a 50-37% advantage. Nate Silver tweeted the following about this poll: I agree that the polls suggest a Trump meltdown, but I would wait about another week to 10 days before getting out the graveyard shovel. The polls were likely taking data during the nadir of what was arguably his worst week yet, which also just happened to be right after a time when Hillary would naturally get a campaign boost from the convention anyway. Trump’s in trouble, no doubt. But let’s see if that holds true for another week or so. There is still time for a Trump recovery, and Trump has proven he can not only climb back from a deficit but also do it within a month’s time. ---
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/457 "2016-08-09T01:35:03Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > See! Trump was right. The fix is in!! > [@elucidator](#): > > Anybody who could put together the planning, logistics, and secrecy of a large-scale, multi-million vote scam by in-person voter fraud should be elected President anyway, there is no point in resisting such a mind. As of now, we would only have polling fraud, right? All the polling companies showing Clinton ahead must have been rigged by Clinton. I’ll just throw in this quote by Obama on this issue: “If Mr. Trump is up 10-15 points on Election Day and ends up losing, maybe he can raise some questions. That doesn’t seem to be the case at the moment.” ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/458 "2016-08-09T01:40:29Z")
> [@Lakai](#): > > As of now, we would only have polling fraud, right? … When Il Douche recently started talking about the coming election being rigged, he supported his dark fantasy on voter id, how some voters might be voting ten times or more, who knows? > [@](#): > > …“If the election is rigged, I would not be surprised,” he told The Washington Post in an interview Tuesday afternoon. “The voter ID situation has turned out to be a very unfair development. We may have people vote 10 times.”… [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/for-trump-a-new-rigged-system-the-election-itself/2016/08/02/d9fb33b0-58c4-11e6-9aee-8075993d73a2\_story.html](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/for-trump-a-new-rigged-system-the-election-itself/2016/08/02/d9fb33b0-58c4-11e6-9aee-8075993d73a2_story.html) ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/459 "2016-08-09T04:14:37Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Monmouth poll out, gave Hillary a 50-37% advantage. … As is often the case the most interesting bits are [in the crosstabs](http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_080816/): Non-White voters essentially same numbers as Romney v Obama. Non-college-educated White men same as Romney v Obama. College-educated White men modestly worse for Trump v Clinton than Romney v Obama. (+11 c.f. +21) Non-college-educated White women not much change (+17 c.f +20 for Romney over Obama). But college-educated White women? Sheyut. Romney won that group +6. Trump is losing it by 30. Meanwhile NowCast is down to 3.6% chance for Trump and Polls-plus, even with its prior weighting the election to close and high uncertainty values built-in, is edging to 80% Clinton this far out. I have a hard time believing that polls will stay this lopsided for long and will be unconcerned if/when they return to more usual election ranges. ---
**Author:** ![ganthet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9de0a6/32.png) [@ganthet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ganthet)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/460 "2016-08-09T06:05:58Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I have a hard time believing that polls will stay this lopsided for long and will be unconcerned if/when they return to more usual election ranges. The usual ranges from the past few presidential elections seem to have been around 3-5%. One of the many reasons this one seems different, though, is just how well known the non-incumbent candidates are. There seemed to be greater room for some fluctuation in the past given that voters were still getting to know more about the candidates while slowly forming a solid opinion. Here, short of Hillary saying or doing something completely disastrous, there really does not seem to be a way that Trump could truly “reset.” That’s why the chorus of demands for an apology after each gaffe/attack or big departure from traditional U.S. policy (like his comments on fulfilling NATO obligations) are baffling. It’s not like a simple apology erases the entire incident from everyone’s memory. Losing one’s temper and making a regrettable comment in the heat of the moment that he didn’t really mean is one thing, but none of his words or behaviors really fit that mold. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=22) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=24)