# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 25
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/481 "2016-08-09T20:59:05Z")
Quinnipiac statewide polls (OH, PA, FL) to be released tomorrow. Number of media outlets are reporting the following: FL: 43-43, Clinton\* PA: 48-39, Clinton OH: 44-42, Clinton Survey was of likely voters and included Stein and Johnson. > **[Quinnipiac polls: Clinton tops Trump in Ohio, Pennsylvania | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2016/08/09/politics/presidential-polls-hillary-clinton-florida-ohio-pennsylvania/index.html)** > > Hillary Clinton has pulled clearly ahead in Pennsylvania and holds a slight lead over Donald Trump in Ohio, but the two are in a tight race in the crucial battleground of Florida, according to new Quinnipiac University polls of likely voters in the... \*Shades of “Harvard beats Yale!” ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/482 "2016-08-09T21:02:09Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > So what’s to stop Assange from just making shit up and calling it a “leak”? Well, nothing except ensuring the “emails” look genuine. In terms of formatting and tone, that’s not terribly hard; with a little practice I could start pumping out emails that look just like the ones Hillary Clinton sent. Particuarly easy if he has some e-mails she actually sent. Just upload a few hundred legitimate ones, with two or three incriminating fake sentences sprinkled in here or there. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/483 "2016-08-09T21:08:24Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > So your theory is that the timing of the WikiLeaks email dump, and the fact that Assange will be parceling out the ‘revelations’ instead of making them all available immediately, is…pure coincidence? Nothing to do with the US Presidential election? WTF are you talking about? RickJay was wondering aloud about how it sure would be easy for Assange and Trump to work together to fake up a bunch of emails. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/484 "2016-08-09T21:18:33Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Quinnipiac statewide polls (OH, PA, FL) to be released tomorrow. Number of media outlets are reporting the following: > > FL: 43-43, Clinton\* > PA: 48-39, Clinton > OH: 44-42, Clinton > > Survey was of likely voters and included Stein and Johnson. > > [http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/09/politics/presidential-polls-hillary-clinton-florida-ohio-pennsylvania/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/09/politics/presidential-polls-hillary-clinton-florida-ohio-pennsylvania/index.html) > > \*Shades of “Harvard beats Yale!” I’d like to see Florida higher. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/485 "2016-08-09T21:28:29Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > I’d like to see Florida higher. Doesn’t it already have enough meth and cocaine? ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/486 "2016-08-09T21:31:17Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > WTF are you talking about? RickJay was wondering aloud about how it sure would be easy for Assange and Trump to work together to fake up a bunch of emails. It’s for RickJay to say, but I’m not reading anything in that post suggesting Trump would lend a hand. (Who would want Trump’s input on any important project, anyway?) ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/487 "2016-08-09T21:45:28Z")
> [@YogSothoth](#): > > What are the chances of Utah going not blue, but to one of the 3rd party candidates? > > Mormons really don’t like Trump. An article I read this morning said it was partially because they feel Trump’s demonizing against Islam, with his loyalty tests and bans remind many Mormons when they were the minority party being persecuted. Plus, in general, Mormons are a lot more welcoming of different immigrants because of all the missionary work they do, and overall nicer than the Southern Baptist, fire and brimstone type Christianity that make up much of the GOP base. But Utah’s really red, I think Clinton winning is a long shot. But now we have Gary Johnson and this new guy who’s entering the race and he’s a Mormon! What’s the 4-way polling look like in Utah right now? I saw yesterday that 14% of those polled in Utah said they’d vote for Romney (who wasn’t a choice - it was spontaneous.) If they go with this new guy (who is a Mormon and whose hq is in SLC) he might have a shot. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/488 "2016-08-09T21:50:01Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > It’s for RickJay to say, but I’m not reading anything in that post suggesting Trump would lend a hand. Oh, no? …not even these bits: > [@RickJay](#): > > There being little to stop Assange and Trump from doing precisely this, I fully expect they will. > \ > You’d need a budget for some staff. I wonder who’d have reason to pay Assange for that sort of thing? And it’s part of the public record that Assange timed the release to damage Clinton so no, I don’t think it’s some coincidence. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/489 "2016-08-09T22:43:56Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > WTF are you talking about? RickJay was wondering aloud about how it sure would be easy for Assange and Trump to work together to fake up a bunch of emails. [Roger Stone says he’s been talking with Assange.](http://mediamatters.org/video/2016/08/09/roger-stone-confirms-hes-communication-julian-assange/212261) ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/490 "2016-08-10T13:14:20Z")
Updated on 538 at about 9am: Polls-Plus: C 74.9-T 25.1 Polls Only: C 84.7-T 15.3 Now Cast: C 86.3- T 13.7 Come on America! You’re supposed to be shifting \*away \*from the rotting orange! ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/491 "2016-08-10T13:24:42Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > I’d like to see Florida higher. Clinton has Obama’s recent history on her side, but a deeper analysis into the data suggests that Trump will probably hang with her to the end there in the Sunshine state. I don’t have time to fetch it but NYT had some good stats that really put a lot of the data into perspective. They looked at white college educated voters for Romney, white non-degree holders voting for Romney, and also the number of crossover voters. Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, PA, NH…the data would seem to indicate that Trump is not going to do particularly well in these states unless there’s something dramatic that happens to Clinton. Florida, however, was a different story. Now Clinton probably won’t blow Trump out of the water in many of these states. Could be 2-4 percentage points, but she’ll win across the big boards, I’m guessing. ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/492 "2016-08-10T13:37:55Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Updated on 538 at about 9am: > > Polls-Plus: C 74.9-T 25.1 > Polls Only: C 84.7-T 15.3 > Now Cast: C 86.3- T 13.7 > > Come on America! You’re supposed to be shifting \*away \*from the rotting orange! The Khan thing is starting to settle, and we have got to give it a day or two for “hey, lets just assassinate people we don’t want” to sink in. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/493 "2016-08-10T14:26:02Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > It’s for RickJay to say, but I’m not reading anything in that post suggesting Trump would lend a hand. (Who would want Trump’s input on any important project, anyway?) I think Trump, or his minions, absolutely WOULD lend a hand, yes. As noted, Tru I must point out that this is a guy who yesterday suggested that someone should shoot Hillary Clinton to death. If you think I’m going to put faking some emails past him, you gotta be kidding. I believe Trump is willing to do anything. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/494 "2016-08-10T14:31:38Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I think Trump, or his minions, absolutely WOULD lend a hand, yes. As noted, Tru > > I must point out that this is a guy who yesterday suggested that someone should shoot Hillary Clinton to death. If you think I’m going to put faking some emails past him, you gotta be kidding. I believe Trump is willing to do anything. Why would there be any doubt that a man that would present a fake press agent would even hesitate to present fake press? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/495 "2016-08-10T14:32:12Z")
But Assange’s whole identity is wrapped in leaking actual documents. If it was discovered he helped fake up and release forgeries it would be the end of wikileaks and his claim to fame. So suggesting that scenario is a little silly. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/496 "2016-08-10T14:46:04Z")
Assange apparently doesn’t like Hillary so sure he’ll release something damaging if he can, but I don’t think he likes Trump a whole lot either and he isn’t necessarily trying to help Trump. I’m sure if he had dirt on Trump he’d release that too. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/497 "2016-08-10T14:48:29Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > But Assange’s whole identity is wrapped in leaking actual documents. If it was discovered he helped fake up and release forgeries it would be the end of wikileaks and his claim to fame. So suggesting that scenario is a little silly. I can think of any number of reasons he’d be willing to up the ante. A rich guy could provide him millions of reasons. Assange has a history of editing documents and videos and such to maximize their political impact. A little creative writing is not beyond him. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/498 "2016-08-10T14:56:57Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I can think of any number of reasons he’d be willing to up the ante. A rich guy could provide him millions of reasons. > > Assange has a history of editing documents and videos and such to maximize their political impact. A little creative writing is not beyond him. Yeah, imagining stuff is fun but I still think it’s ridiculous to think Assange is going to actually give up his hero/rebel/martyr status and his voice on the world stage for a bag of silver. But this is really a hijack of this thread so I’ll drop it now. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/499 "2016-08-10T17:51:44Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I think Trump, or his minions, absolutely WOULD lend a hand, yes. As noted, Tru > I must point out that this is a guy who yesterday suggested that someone should shoot Hillary Clinton to death. If you think I’m going to put faking some emails past him, you gotta be kidding. I believe Trump is willing to do anything. I agree. There may be a misunderstanding here: I certainly never suggested that Trump would balk at faking emails. What I was saying is that anyone wanting to torpedo Clinton/help Trump would be unwise to let Trump take an actual role in the fakery–he would leave his fingerprints all over the project. He’s not smart enough to come up with plausible damaging inventions or smart enough to know where to insert the damaging inventions. He’d screw it up. I was suggesting that it’s more likely that Putin would offer some well-crafted fakes (in aid of Trump) than that Roger Stone would say to Assange ‘we’d like you use some of Mr. Trump’s ideas.’ Not that it matters, other than that the more people are aware of this possibility, the better protection that awareness will offer to wavering independents who might otherwise be taken in, if and when faked emails are presented. Speaking of awareness, here’s a New Republic story addressing the “October surprise from Assange” theory, though without explicit discussion of the potential for fakery: [https://newrepublic.com/minutes/135932/roger-stone-julian-assange-cahoots-hillary-clinton-prepare-october-surprise](https://newrepublic.com/minutes/135932/roger-stone-julian-assange-cahoots-hillary-clinton-prepare-october-surprise) > [@](#): > > As Robert Mackey noted in The Intercept, “In recent months, the WikiLeaks Twitter feed has started to look more like the stream of an opposition research firm working mainly to undermine Hillary Clinton than the updates of a non-partisan platform for whistleblowers.” > [@RickJay](#): > > I can think of any number of reasons he’d be willing to up the ante. A rich guy could provide him millions of reasons. The promise of ‘fixing things’ so that he could finally leave the Ecuadorian Embassy would probably have been dangled in front of Assange. Of course anyone depending on Trump to keep a promise is probably already living in a river in Egypt, but desperation is desperation. Assange not only knows Hillary won’t fix things with the Swedish authorities, but ‘knows’ that she will go after him and after WikiLeaks: > [@](#): > > Assange said he is worried a potential President Clinton would go after him and WikiLeaks. > The emails WikiLeaks has already published show that Clinton receives constant updates on Assange’s situation, he stressed in the interview. > Assange also pointed out that Clinton has previously pushed for prosecution of WikiLeaks for its whistle-blowing. [http://www.salon.com/2016/06/14/wikileaks\_will\_release\_new\_clinton\_emails\_to\_add\_to\_incriminating\_evidence\_julian\_assange\_says\_in\_big\_year\_ahead/](http://www.salon.com/2016/06/14/wikileaks_will_release_new_clinton_emails_to_add_to_incriminating_evidence_julian_assange_says_in_big_year_ahead/) > [@RickJay](#): > > Assange has a history of editing documents and videos and such to maximize their political impact. A little creative writing is not beyond him. Yeah. Whatever integrity he may have had at one point has been compromised again and again. And he believes himself righteous. That’s a recipe for shenanigans justified by that age-old excuse “the ends justify the means.” ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/500 "2016-08-10T18:26:23Z")
[longroom.com](http://longroom.com), which also said that Mitt was leading the polls if you “unskewed” them (whatever that means), has Trump leading. [https://www.longroom.com/polls/#polling-infometrics](https://www.longroom.com/polls/#polling-infometrics) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=24) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=26)