# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 28
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2016, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/541 "2016-08-16T13:43:17Z")
Winning more Senate and House seats is exactly what I mean by “running up the score”. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2016, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/542 "2016-08-16T17:32:15Z")
538 now has Clinton at her highest historical level for Polls Plus (79.5%) and the highest historical level for Polls only (89.2%) Now-Cast is at 91.7% and trending up. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2016, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/543 "2016-08-16T17:49:38Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Hillary’s first job is to win the election. Trailing far behind that is her 2nd job which is to win the Senate. The 3rd longshot job is to win the House. In last place, she needs to run up the score. Speaking as a political animal I want to reorder these for practical purposes. 1. Win Presidency 2. Run up score 3. Win Senate 4. Win House The thing is, running up the score - i.e. winning by a large popular and EV margin - contributes to everything further down. The more Hillary wins the popular vote the more senate and house seats will flip. In addition, a larger win imparts a greater amount of political capital that she can use. Famously brought to public light by GWB - even though he pissed it away early in his second term - it is nonetheless a real thing. Hillary will have a greater ability to influence and work with republicans in both chambers if she can say that the majority of the people are with her. Mandates are a real thing and if would be helpful if she had the ability to capitalize on such early in her first term. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2016, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/544 "2016-08-16T18:26:13Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > 538 now has Clinton at her highest historical level for Polls Plus (79.5%) > and the highest historical level for Polls only (89.2%) > > Now-Cast is at 91.7% and trending up. I thought the now-cast would trend down to meet the polls forecast, but instead the polls forecast is trending up to meet the now-cast. Is Trump the worst candidate in modern American history? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2016, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/545 "2016-08-16T18:37:24Z")
Trump [only leading by 6 points in Texas](http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/trump-leads-by-only-6-in-texas.html) - the state that Romney won by 16. A couple of interesting side notes from this poll: > [@](#): > > We continue to find that Trump voters overwhelmingly buy into his preemptive claims about the election being rigged. Just 19% of Trump voters grant that if Clinton wins the election it will be because she got more votes, while 71% say that it will just be because the election was rigged. More specifically 40% of Trump voters think that ACORN, which hasn’t existed in years, will steal the election for Clinton So 40% of Trump supporters are morons who have no idea what is happening in the world. > [@](#): > > Finally we polled on Texas secession. Overall 26% of voters would support leaving the United States to 59% who want to stay, and 15% who aren’t sure either way. Among Trump voters support for secession goes up to 37%, with only 49% opposed to exiting. So 37% of Trump supporters do not even think of themselves as Americans. They want to leave the country. They hate the United States of America. Why are they even voting in a presidential election, other than to destroy the country? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2016, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/546 "2016-08-16T19:30:53Z")
> [@](#): > > …They want to leave the country. They hate the United States of America… Despite their reputation for demure and modest behavior, Texans are not immune to a bit of bluster, now and again. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2016, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/547 "2016-08-16T19:40:55Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > I thought the now-cast would trend down to meet the polls forecast, but instead the polls forecast is trending up to meet the now-cast. Is Trump the worst candidate in modern American history? If you’ll have a look at the likely EV map, and compare it to the maps from 1984 or 1972… nope. Well, not in terms of electability. I’m not saying it couldn’t get as bad as 1972, when McGovern lost by 23 points (!) but it’s not likely and the current polling is nowhere near it. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2016, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/548 "2016-08-16T20:02:19Z")
Clinton is probably not a sufficiently inspiring figure to precipitate a true electoral blowout. She’s intelligent, informed, and competent, but not hugely charismatic, and obviously is carrying around a lot of baggage. LBJ and Nixon weren’t super likable, either, but the electorate is now far more polarized than it once was. Trump has already done and said outrageous and insane enough things that with a less polarized electorate, say from before 2000, it probably would have been a blowout. These days, it would take someone uniquely charismatic, like Reagan, combined with a disaster like Trump, and that’s just not what we have. ETA: but it’s clear the discussion now is mainly how badly Trump will lose, and not whether he will, and whether his catastrophic campaign will harm down-ticket Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2016, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/549 "2016-08-16T20:20:57Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Speaking as a political animal I want to reorder these for practical purposes. > > 1. Win Presidency > 2. Run up score > 3. Win Senate > 4. Win House > > The thing is, running up the score - i.e. winning by a large popular and EV margin - contributes to everything further down. The more Hillary wins the popular vote the more senate and house seats will flip. > > In addition, a larger win imparts a greater amount of political capital that she can use. Famously brought to public light by GWB - even though he pissed it away early in his second term - it is nonetheless a real thing. Hillary will have a greater ability to influence and work with republicans in both chambers if she can say that the majority of the people are with her. Mandates are a real thing and if would be helpful if she had the ability to capitalize on such early in her first term. Quoted in full and fair enough. There’s another consideration though. Trump foghorns bigotry. Notwithstanding my introversion, I’ve tended to like the Muslims and Hispanics that I’ve met. Mostly because I tend to like most people. Some are and were friends. Trump is soft on NATO. Holy shit. _NATO_. Trump gives aid and comfort to white supremacists - I mean the explicit ones. These are the sorts of dark forces that I want to tamp down. Most Republicans would agree with me, or so I believe. Trump is also an ignoramus that is wholly unsuited for the Presidency. But that matter is handled by a thin loss or an electoral blowout. Doesn’t matter. Demagogues in the US tend to flame out, but they also leave behind a puddle that requires mopping up. An electoral vote smackdown would be helpful during the post-election scrub-down. That’s the narrow aspect of running up the score that I was referring to. It’s my problem/our problem more than Hillary’s. She just needs to win, then govern. There’s already plenty on her plate. There’s also the matter of creating a healthier space for science-informed public policy. But that’s a broader problem, one where most Republicans part company with me (though they would have agreed with me 20-70 years ago). Running up the Presidential score won’t help directly: indirectly it probably would to some extent. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2016, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/550 "2016-08-16T21:09:21Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > I thought the now-cast would trend down to meet the polls forecast, but instead the polls forecast is trending up to meet the now-cast. Is Trump the worst candidate in modern American history? Regardless of his opposition or what might happen in the election, the answer is, Yes. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2016, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/551 "2016-08-16T21:12:38Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Regardless of his opposition or what might happen in the election, the answer is, Yes. Wallace. Thurmond. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2016, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/552 "2016-08-16T21:17:20Z")
Both of whom at least the had the strength of their convictions, no matter how fucked up they might be. Trump doesn’t even have that. His conviction is expedience. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2016, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/553 "2016-08-16T21:31:32Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Both of whom at least the had the strength of their convictions, no matter how fucked up they might be. Trump doesn’t even have that. His conviction is expedience. His conviction is Trump Is Great. He holds to it with a manic intensity and single-minded focus no sane person can match. A Wallace or Thurmond type, a normal bigot operating in the realm of real politics and real ideologies, might recant, late in life, and become a champion of a saner, less hateful cause. Trump will never recant. He cannot. He’s locked-in, and he’ll ride his conviction down to whatever finale it leads him to. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2016, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/554 "2016-08-16T23:22:57Z")
Now everyone just hold your goddam horses. The most recent poll by Strategy Research shows _ **Trump with a 36 point lead** _ in Alabama\*\*!!!\*\* All this doom and gloom, and the evidence shows that Trump is going to absolutely blow Hillary out of the water in Alabama. You people are a bunch of liberal shills! Seriously why did anyone bother to poll Alabama? ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2016, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/555 "2016-08-17T00:13:39Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > Now everyone just hold your goddam horses. The most recent poll by Strategy Research shows _ **Trump with a 36 point lead** _ in Alabama\*\*!!!\*\* All this doom and gloom, and the evidence shows that Trump is going to absolutely blow Hillary out of the water in Alabama. You people are a bunch of liberal shills! > > Seriously why did anyone bother to poll Alabama? Sadly, the rest of my family all live in Alabama. Depresses the hell out of me that they’re very likely to vote for him. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2016, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/556 "2016-08-17T00:38:24Z")
> [@MovieMogul](#): > > Sadly, the rest of my family all live in Alabama. Depresses the hell out of me that they’re very likely to vote for him. ☹ Well, to be honest, their vote for him doesn’t much matter in Alabama. Unfortunately, 5 out of 8 of my Florida relatives are voting for Trump. My one brother-in-law there isn’t voting for Hillary, but isn’t voting for Trump at least. My mother-in-law may just not vote at all. So that means I have only one Florida relative actually voting for Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2016, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/557 "2016-08-17T00:50:30Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > If you’ll have a look at the likely EV map, and compare it to the maps from 1984 or 1972… nope. Well, not in terms of electability. > > I’m not saying it couldn’t get as bad as 1972, when McGovern lost by 23 points (!) but it’s not likely and the current polling is nowhere near it. McGovern and Goldwater both got themselves painted into an extremist corner. Neither did things to wreck their chances over and over again, so in that respect I’d say Trump is much worse. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2016, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/558 "2016-08-17T00:52:26Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Trump [only leading by 6 points in Texas](http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/trump-leads-by-only-6-in-texas.html) - the state that Romney won by 16. > > A couple of interesting side notes from this poll: > > So 40% of Trump supporters are morons who have no idea what is happening in the world. If lots of Trump voters think the election is rigged so that their vote won’t count, maybe they will stay home. That would work. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2016, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/559 "2016-08-17T01:22:27Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > If lots of Trump voters think the election is rigged so that their vote won’t count, maybe they will stay home. That would work. “From your lips to G-d’s ear.” ---
**Author:** ![pohjonen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pohjonen/32/423_2.png) [@pohjonen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pohjonen)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2016, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/560 "2016-08-17T01:50:47Z")
> [@MovieMogul](#): > > Sadly, the rest of my family all live in Alabama. Depresses the hell out of me that they’re very likely to vote for him. ☹ I was born in a little rural town in Alabama. We moved away before I was two. The most salient fact (to me) about my birthplace is that with a total population of around 200 today, there are 27 registered sex offenders. Yoicks! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=27) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=29)