# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 30
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/581 "2016-08-29T23:05:02Z")
I think Clinton is clearly winning at present, but if the polling in critical states starts averaging anything under a 5 percent margin, that would be concerning. And anything within 3 percentage points would be very, very worrying. It’s especially troubling because Trump is exactly the sort of candidate that could outperform the polls. Hillary is going to face a barrage of fake news stories, the intent of which will be to demotivate Hillary’s voters (especially white moderates) from showing up at the polls. If Trump can simply trash Hillary so badly that they decide not to show up, that would be almost as bad as voting for Trump. His supporters and Hillary haters absolutely will show up at the polls. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/582 "2016-08-29T23:14:05Z")
Ridiculous. Trump will be generating his own bad press from now until election day even as he tries to keep harping on Clinton’s foibles. There’s no reason to think there’ll be a massive swing in the polling. Certainly not enough in all the states he needs. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/583 "2016-08-29T23:14:20Z")
Here’s the NYT Upshot site. I like this one (and PEC, mentioned above) > **[2016 Election Forecast: Who Will Be President? (Published 2016)](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot®ion=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0)** > > The Upshot’s presidential forecast, updated daily. I like the diagram at the bottom. You can play around and show different scenarios. Right now, over all, The Upshot is predicting a 88% chance of a Clinton Victory. It’s showing that if Clinton wins either Ohio or Pennsylvannia - just one of them - Trump still loses even if he takes the other + NC, SC, AZ, MO, IA, FLA, GA & Nev. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/584 "2016-08-29T23:28:06Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Ridiculous. Trump will be generating his own bad press from now until election day even as he tries to keep harping on Clinton’s foibles. There’s no reason to think there’ll be a massive swing in the polling. Certainly not enough in all the states he needs. I think TrumpBart’s strategy is to create noise. Trump hired Bannon to create a steady stream of bullshit news and hope that either centrist voters actually buy it (not very likely) or get confused and simply reach the point where they say “This election sucks - I think I’ll just sit this one out.” It’s a long shot but if you run this election in a simulator, I could see it working maybe one or two times out of 20. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/585 "2016-08-29T23:32:05Z")
> [@Merneith](#): > > Here’s the NYT Upshot site. I like this one (and PEC, mentioned above) > > [2016 Election Forecast: Who Will Be President? - The New York Times](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot®ion=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0) > > I like the diagram at the bottom. You can play around and show different scenarios. > > Right now, over all, The Upshot is predicting a 88% chance of a Clinton Victory. It’s showing that if Clinton wins either Ohio or Pennsylvannia - just one of them - Trump still loses even if he takes the other + NC, SC, AZ, MO, IA, FLA, GA & Nev. Logistically he has a geography problem. He now has to compete hard in North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Nevada, which he might have been able to win more easily had he not melted down after the convention. It’s also clear that he’s not going to get much GOP party help either, which makes it harder to grind it, robocall, and get out the vote. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2016, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/586 "2016-08-30T00:06:34Z")
Let’s wait until his HUGE speech on ILLEGATION IMMIGRATION on WEDNESDAY! It’ll be the BESTEST, HUGEST speech EVER! :rolleyes: At this point, it sure seems like a lose-lose for him. If he convincingly softens his stance enough to pick up some swing voters, his base tanks. If he feeds meat to his xenophobic base, he can kiss the swing vote good-bye for good. He’s already got problems with women, African-Americans, Hispanics, millennials, and (surprisingly, at least to me) Catholics and Mormons. At this point, he’d have to swing multiple of the above back to his side (or at least pull them back towards a tie) to even have a chance. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2016, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/587 "2016-08-30T00:09:45Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > I gotta agree a little bit - read his 2012 analysis vs. his 2016 and the 2016 is definitely showier. Uh … yeah. I already highlighted much of [this](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-its-too-soon-for-clinton-to-run-out-the-clock/) in another thread but it warrants mocking it again. > [@Silver](#): > > … If Trump keeps gaining 1 percentage point a week, he’ll beat Clinton by a couple of percentage points on Nov. 8. … > > … Toward the end of the 2012 campaign, we frequently emphasized the distinction between closeness and uncertainty. … This election, at least for the time being, presents something of the opposite case. It isn’t all that close — Clinton is up by around 6 percentage points as best as we can figure, a larger lead than Obama had at almost any point in 2012 or until the very end of the 2008 campaign. But it’s August, and the number of undecided voters is high, and so the outcome remains fairly uncertain. … [Nate Silver]There’s something to see here! Really! Keep clicking![/Nate Sliver] (Please note **Happy Lendervedder** , Silver agrees that it is not all that close … he just touts that it is still uncertain.) Most generously one can believe that Silver is chagrined by his miscall of Trump and overconfident dismissal of him in the GOP primaries and is overcompensating. There is certainly a possibility of some unpredictable asteroid strike hitting (historically NOT the debates) and turnout of different demographics this time around are big question marks. Maybe it is understandable to retreat into “uncertainty” given the reality that this particular election dynamic is pretty much uncharted ground without much meaningful precedence. But hyping up a return from the peak of 8.5 to high end of what has been the mean for the race, a not at all close Clinton +6.5, as a - at this rate of recovery he could win? Mockable at best. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2016, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/588 "2016-08-30T00:50:03Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > He’s already got problems with women, African-Americans, Hispanics, millennials, and **(surprisingly, at least to me) Catholics and Mormons**. At this point, he’d have to swing multiple of the above back to his side (or at least pull them back towards a tie) to even have a chance. For the Catholics, just google “Trump Insults Pope” and you get a pretty clear idea why he’s in trouble with that group. Turns out that dissing His Holiness as if he was just another New Yorker in Trump’s way doesn’t sit well with the Catholics. Who could have seen that coming? :smack: As for the Mormons, they put a great deal of emphasis on fidelity in marriage. So you’ve got a thrice-married philander running against a wronged wife who stood by her man, regardless of his foibles. And the Mormons also have a long history of facing religious discrimination, so when you have a politician threatening to bar Muslims, and re-tweeting tweets from anti-semitic sites, turns out that some Mormons are dubious. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2016, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/589 "2016-08-30T02:24:05Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > He’s already got problems with women, African-Americans, Hispanics, millennials, and (surprisingly, at least to me) Catholics and Mormons. There’s a bit of overlap on the Venn diagram between Hispanics and Catholics so that might explain a bit of it. And the Pope thing, of course. And the fact that Catholics tend [more socially liberal](http://www.gallup.com/poll/191903/religious-groups-disagree-five-key-moral-issues.aspx) than many Protestants so if you’re going to slip with a Christian group, it’ll likely first be Catholics. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2016, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/590 "2016-08-31T22:24:53Z")
Nationally, Clinton’s momentum has been stymied. In and of itself, not necessarily something to be overly concerned about. > **[Polls tighten in presidential race](https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/293882-polls-tighten-in-presidential-race/)** > > Hillary Clinton has a smaller lead heading into the crucial month of September. However… There is a new poll in Wisconsin that is a little creepy. > **[Polls: Trump draws closer against Clinton in Wisconsin](https://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/08/poll-trump-clinton-wisconsin-227592)** > > Among people likely to vote in November, 43 percent said they would vote for Clinton, while 38 percent chose Trump. And in Ohio, Trump has almost caught up according to one poll: > **[Polls show tight races in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan](https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/293697-poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-pa-mi-dead-heat-in-oh/)** > > Trump is polling better among independent voters in all three states. Any way you spin it, the last few polls have been favorable to Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2016, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/591 "2016-08-31T22:40:20Z")
A check on RealClearPolitics doesn’t show any major differences over the past week or so in the [four way race](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html), which is the only proper chart. Their [electoral map](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html) shows Clinton with 262 electoral votes in likely/lean states, a bit lower than the 272 she had had two weeks ago. But that’s an add for toss-ups. Trump hasn’t gained at all in August. It doesn’t surprise me when the polls close up a bit whenever Trump has a good week. That is in fact what we should expect. It’s just as important to remember that the polls, two-way, three-way, or four-way, simply don’t matter. Only the electoral college number matters. Clinton remains far ahead in every impartial calculation about the EC. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2016, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/592 "2016-08-31T22:50:52Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Any way you spin it, the last few polls have been favorable to Trump. Or more accurately, less unfavorable. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2016, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/593 "2016-09-01T01:28:36Z")
Nate Silver’s model has the race tightening slightly. I’ll start to worry if this tightening continues for several weeks through the debates. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2016, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/594 "2016-09-01T04:14:26Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Nate Silver’s model has the race tightening slightly. I’ll start to worry if this tightening continues for several weeks through the debates. Yeah, on my [270toWin.com](http://270toWin.com) map, I only give a state to Hillary if she has an 80% chance of winning it according to Nate’s Poll’s Only forecast. This past week, several states’ percentages have been dropping rapidly. Now tonight, Wisconsin and Minnesota both dropped below 80 for the first time. Michigan and Colorado are less than a percentage point from 80. _New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio and Nevada are all in the mid- to low-60s._ Even Oregon’s percentage is dropping. All this means is that on my map, Hillary currently only has 229 safe EVs, with Trump getting a potential 309. Less than two weeks ago, I had her at a nice 308. Now I know that a lot of state polls still have Hillary up, but her lead is shrinking. And how she’s trending isn’t comfortable. [In the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/poll-clinton-unpopularity-high-par-trump/story?id=41752050), Hillary is now viewed unfavorably by a majority of women for the first time in a year. He favorability has dropped 15 points with Hispanics in a month, 9 points among moderates, 13 points among liberals and 13 points with post-graduate degree holders. I like her, but, man, people just don’t dig Hillary. She’s running against an honest-to-God racist clown, and she just can’t lock it up because for whatever reason, people are just turned off by her. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2016, 10:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/595 "2016-09-01T10:06:34Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I like her, but, man, people just don’t dig Hillary. She’s running against an honest-to-God racist clown, and she just can’t lock it up because for whatever reason, people are just turned off by her. I was dismissed by a few Dopers for pointing out the folly of Hillary and Obama appearing to respond late (or in Hillary’s case not at all) to the floods of Louisiana, but as I predicted, that absolutely did have an impact on the race. In contrast to Hurricane Katrine, the flooding of Baton Rouge was a White Flood, with white faces and the homes of good white Americans being affected. Trump was there first. Obama was playing golf. Hillary was out fundraising. “Well Louisiana’s not voting for Hillary so who cares” right? Well, for one thing you’ve got a newly-elected democratic governor - a rarity in the South these days. But for another, you had millions and millions of white voters in other states watching the entire time, and they vote in very large numbers in places like Ohio, and Wisconsin, and Iowa. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2016, 10:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/596 "2016-09-01T10:34:55Z")
Not to panic. Hillary’s convention bounce is gone, but that’s what convention bounces do. She is going to filet him like a fatty orange salmon in the debates. Trump has zero approval ratings from blacks and very low approval from Hispanics. You simply can’t win on the backs of pissed off white people. ---
**Author:** ![DonLogan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/51bf81/32.png) [@DonLogan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DonLogan)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2016, 11:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/597 "2016-09-01T11:03:43Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Yeah, on my [270toWin.com](http://270toWin.com) map, I only give a state to Hillary if she has an 80% chance of winning it according to Nate’s Poll’s Only forecast. This past week, several states’ percentages have been dropping rapidly. Now tonight, Wisconsin and Minnesota both dropped below 80 for the first time. Michigan and Colorado are less than a percentage point from 80. _New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio and Nevada are all in the mid- to low-60s._ Even Oregon’s percentage is dropping. > > All this means is that on my map, Hillary currently only has 229 safe EVs, with Trump getting a potential 309. Less than two weeks ago, I had her at a nice 308. > > Now I know that a lot of state polls still have Hillary up, but her lead is shrinking. And how she’s trending isn’t comfortable. [In the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/poll-clinton-unpopularity-high-par-trump/story?id=41752050), Hillary is now viewed unfavorably by a majority of women for the first time in a year. He favorability has dropped 15 points with Hispanics in a month, 9 points among moderates, 13 points among liberals and 13 points with post-graduate degree holders. > > I like her, but, man, people just don’t dig Hillary. She’s running against an honest-to-God racist clown, and she just can’t lock it up because for whatever reason, people are just turned off by her. OK, ask yourself what is wrong with these pictures: Clinton’s chances better in Colorado that in Minnesota? No. NH is being affected by an Ipsos poll that had Trump +14. They have him ahead in Alabama by 6. C’mon. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2016, 11:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/598 "2016-09-01T11:05:16Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Not to panic. Hillary’s convention bounce is gone, but that’s what convention bounces do. She is going to filet him like a fatty orange salmon in the debates. I would not be so sure of that. First of all, you have to define “winning” a debate. Will it even be a “debate”? > [@BobLibDem](#): > > Trump has zero approval ratings from blacks and very low approval from Hispanics. I don’t doubt it’s a low percentage, but I doubt it’s zero. > [@BobLibDem](#): > > You simply can’t win on the backs of pissed off white people. But he can win with a coalition of pissed off and generally concerned, worried, and disillusioned white people. Believe me, he absolutely can. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2016, 11:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/599 "2016-09-01T11:30:19Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I don’t doubt it’s a low percentage, but I doubt it’s zero. [One poll does have it at zero.](http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/293752-trumps-popularity-with-african-american-voters-polling-at) > [@](#): > > Public Policy Polling released a preview of a new poll on “The Rachel Maddow Show” Monday night that showed Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s favorability rating among African-American voters at zero percent. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2016, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/600 "2016-09-01T11:48:20Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > She is going to filet him like a fatty orange salmon in the debates. Probably, but much depends on which Trump shows up. He’s capable of sounding reasonable and thoughtful, not blustering and hate-pandering, even if it \*is \*all acting. But she can respond either way, and I hope she uses multiple Trump stand-ins in her rehearsals who can play the character in very different ways so she’ll be ready for any of them. > [@](#): > > Trump has zero approval ratings from blacks It has to be minimal, but there also has to be a crazification factor that will give him some votes. He even has a black guy follow him from one rally to the next - he’s probably a Trump voter. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=29) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=31)