# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 33
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/641 "2016-09-02T20:20:38Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Actually, with just 65% of the white vote, Trump could win with 0% of Latinos and African-Americans. Played a bit with that 538 app and dang if you are not right though, assuming no changes in turnout and no change in Asian/Other. Loses the popular vote by 3% but wins the electoral college 278 to 260. Now mind you lose a little of Asian/other too and it flips. Only move non-college educated White up from Romney’s 62 to 69% with no other changes and he still loses though. And he’s not even close to there. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/642 "2016-09-02T20:36:08Z")
> **[Trump 'on track' to hit an historic low with Latino voters](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/9/2/1566227/-Trump-on-track-to-hit-an-historic-low-with-Latino-voters)** > > Hillary Clinton is trouncing Donald Trump among Latino voters, 70-19 percent, in a new poll released Friday by polling outfit Latino Decisions and the immigration advocacy group America's Voice. That puts Trump "on track for an historically... \*\* Trump ‘on track’ to hit an historic low with Latino voters\*\* > [@](#): > > …Hillary Clinton is trouncing Donald Trump among Latino voters, 70-19 percent, in a new poll released Friday by polling outfit Latino Decisions and the immigration advocacy group America’s Voice… ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/643 "2016-09-02T22:16:06Z")
An interesting analysis of the White non-college educated voter [in Rolling Stone.](http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/everyone-gets-it-wrong-about-donald-trump-and-white-voters-w437410) They are far from all the same in regards to Trump themselves. > [@](#): > > Another central misunderstanding of non-college-educated whites is the idea that they hold a common social identity. The truth is that a white guy with a high-school diploma in South Boston has lived in a world that’s socially, culturally and politically distinct from that of his counterparts in Indiana or Mississippi. … > > … Trump’s sparked a debate about whether his supporters are motivated by racial animus or economic insecurity. To some degree, this is a false dichotomy – people are more likely to scapegoat the “other” when their own lives suck. > But, as the graph below illustrates, we do see statistically significant differences in the degree to which working-class whites from different regions harbor “racial grievances.” It’s not a perfect correlation, but with the exception of the East north-central region, those in the most Republican-leaning parts of the country are more likely to hold negative views toward black people than those in the rest of the country. … And this one looks at a series of survey questions designed to capture economic insecurity. Here, you can see that any regional differences are minimal. … It would be interesting to see the different swing state results broken out by White college vs non-college educated. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/644 "2016-09-02T22:35:09Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > It would be interesting to see the different swing state results broken out by White college vs non-college educated. Ohio would be particularly interesting. The Appalachian counties are less blue than they used to be but many still lean Democratic. White, low education, rural, extremely poor, gun loving Democrats…oh my! Some of the northern Democratic strongholds include a number of working class Democrats that aren’t particularly socially liberal but support the party because positions on unions. Two groups that both fit the Trump demographic on the surface but would usually expected to vote Clinton… like you said it would be interesting to see. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/645 "2016-09-02T22:40:09Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > An interesting analysis of the White non-college educated voter [in Rolling Stone.](http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/everyone-gets-it-wrong-about-donald-trump-and-white-voters-w437410) They are far from all the same in regards to Trump themselves. It would be interesting to see the different swing state results broken out by White college vs non-college educated. When they way “college educated”, do they mean graduates only? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 2, 2016, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/646 "2016-09-02T23:00:50Z")
Yes. You wascally wabbit you. ---
**Author:** ![ultimate11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/49beb7/32.png) [@ultimate11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultimate11)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/647 "2016-09-15T17:47:36Z")
The map has changed as of late. Nevada is turning red in the now-cast, and Ohio is red as well, according to polls plus. Polls plus has got Trump back to where he was pre/post-GOP convention, now-cast has him nearly back to where he was on July 31st. That’s the statistics. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/648 "2016-09-15T17:53:25Z")
Trump has never had to appear one on one in a debate for an hour and a half with someone of Hillary’s talent. True, his believers will think he won if nothing more than drool comes out of his mouth, but he will look anything but presidential and informed. Maybe your local high school could beat the Patriots, but maybe only once in a million years. That’s how overmatched he is. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/649 "2016-09-15T17:58:23Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > When they way “college educated”, do they mean graduates only? I had the same question about a similar stat (at [270towin.com](http://270towin.com) ?) , and found that, at least in that case, “college educated” included people with _any_ college study. ---
**Author:** ![Neo-Calredic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/96bed5/32.png) [@Neo-Calredic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Neo-Calredic)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/650 "2016-09-15T18:04:01Z")
Is anyone else terrified that the only thing standing between the U.S. and its first openly-fascist regime at this point is a stellar debate performance by Hillary Clinton (which will be graded on such a ridiculous curve that even the tiniest mistakes will count hugely against her)? I don’t understand how things got this way. I mean, I knew we had problems as a country, but deep down I always thought we were better than this. So much for that illusion, I guess. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/651 "2016-09-15T18:20:53Z")
I am now slightly nervous. If 538 has Hillary in the 50s or below for more than a couple of weeks, especially if it’s after the 1st debate, then I will be very nervous. But she’s still got a significant lead in enough states to get 270, with NH being the closest (at about 66%, I think, in the polls only right now) of this 270-firewall. I’m still optimistic and only slightly nervous. ---
**Author:** ![ultimate11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/49beb7/32.png) [@ultimate11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultimate11)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/652 "2016-09-15T19:16:21Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > I had the same question about a similar stat (at [270towin.com](http://270towin.com) ?) , and found that, at least in that case, “college educated” included people with _any_ college study. Could that include me? I did attend _some_ college at College of Dupage between 2013-2014, and COD states that having CompTIA A+, Network+ & Security+ qualifies for a [certificate](http://www.cod.edu/programs/pdf/career/cit-certificates.pdf) (the System Support Specialist certificate, that is), albeit I obtained those certificates (including the latter one (Sec+) tomorrow- I’m confident :)) by self studying. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/653 "2016-09-15T19:51:01Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > My updated takes on Trump post-Mexico and Arizona are as follows: > > - Trump has completely fucked any chance of winning in states where Latinos are the king makers. It’s completely over in states like Nevada and Florida, and his campaign should just not even bother setting foot in these states again – would be an utter waste of his time. Well, looks like I have to walk this one back, I guess. I still don’t understand how Trump is competing in these states other than he must be dominating the white vote at records not seen since the 1970s. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/654 "2016-09-15T20:49:33Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Well, looks like I have to walk this one back, I guess. I still don’t understand how Trump is competing in these states other than he must be dominating the white vote at records not seen since the 1970s. [Here is the recent Monmouth University poll of Nevada](http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_091416/) > [@](#): > > Independents have shifted, however, now giving Trump a clear 43% to 29% advantage over Clinton > … > Clinton still has a sizable lead among non-white voters - 63% to 28% for Trump > … > The Republican nominee retains his lead among white voters, now standing at 51% to 33% I’m a bit surprised he’s capturing 28% of the Hispanic vote in NV. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/655 "2016-09-15T21:37:06Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > [Here is the recent Monmouth University poll of Nevada](http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_091416/) > I’m a bit surprised he’s capturing 28% of the Hispanic vote in NV. Non-whites could include African Americans, too, I suppose? I know that non-whites mostly consists of Latinos in NV though. But perhaps Clinton advantage among non-whites, while marked, is perhaps a bit overdone. At any rate, even if non-whites don’t like Donald, they have to be motivated to vote _for_ Hillary and maybe they just aren’t quite as motivated as they were for Obama. That’s one of the factors that’s different between Obama and Hillary: minority voters, especially black voters, wanted to be a part of history and they felt a connection to Obama that they just don’t have with Hillary, so she can’t rely on Obama’s vote numbers to necessarily be a reflection of her potential to capture the electorate. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/656 "2016-09-15T21:41:41Z")
Trump getting [strong support from some blue-collar Democrats in Pennsylvania.](http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/why-democrats-in-western-pennsylvania-are-voting-trump/499577/) ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/657 "2016-09-15T21:48:55Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Trump getting [strong support from some blue-collar Democrats in Pennsylvania.](http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/why-democrats-in-western-pennsylvania-are-voting-trump/499577/) PA is going to be much harder for Trump to win. He’ll do well in Western and Central PA, but the East is typically dark blue. Still, if there’s an enthusiasm gap, who knows… ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2016, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/658 "2016-09-15T22:57:12Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > PA is going to be much harder for Trump to win. He’ll do well in Western and Central PA, but the East is typically dark blue. Still, if there’s an enthusiasm gap, who knows… Much harder than what? I suspect he’ll come closer to winning PA than McCain or Romney did. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/659 "2016-09-16T00:03:20Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Trump has never had to appear one on one in a debate for an hour and a half with someone of Hillary’s talent. True, his believers will think he won if nothing more than drool comes out of his mouth, but he will look anything but presidential and informed. Maybe your local high school could beat the Patriots, but maybe only once in a million years. That’s how overmatched he is. You don’t get how these debates work, I guess. ---
**Author:** ![Alan\_Smithee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/2acd7d/32.png) [@Alan\_Smithee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alan_Smithee)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2016, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/660 "2016-09-16T00:47:06Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I am now slightly nervous. If 538 has Hillary in the 50s or below for more than a couple of weeks, especially if it’s after the 1st debate, then I will be very nervous. > > But she’s still got a significant lead in enough states to get 270, with NH being the closest (at about 66%, I think, in the polls only right now) of this 270-firewall. I’m still optimistic and only slightly nervous. Even when you know how these things work, it can be hard to shift your thinking. If the polls show Clinton in the 50s in key states following the debate, that’s very good. With some votes going to third parties, it’s likely the winner will have less than 50% of the vote overall. But if 538 shows Clinton in the 50s that’s not good at all. It means the race is essentially a toss up, with either candidate about equally likely to win. And if Clinton falls below 50, it means she’s more likely to lose than to win. As Election Day approaches, the polls should stabilize, hopefully with Clinton at about 55%. But that means the 538 models should approach 100% as that six or seven percent gap becomes harder and harder to close. If that doesn’t happen, I’ll be very nervous. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=32) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=34)