# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 35
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/681 "2016-09-17T00:56:10Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > If addressed to me by staying outside that range for a prolonged time and by how far. The longer and the by more the bigger the problem. One week here I can whistle through. Ten days I start to bite my lower lip. Two weeks and I start taking the acid-blockers. Yes, Trump in positive range for more than a week would get both the acid-blockers and few stiff shots of my best Scotch. > > So, addie … if it stays like this do you vote Clinton over Johnson (assuming you were in a swingable state)? Do you donate to Clinton to help stop Trump? I don’t donate to candidates because I don’t think it matters, and with Clinton outspending Trump 10-1 it’s clear donating money to her is a waste of time. I live in Florida, so I may in fact have to vote for Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/682 "2016-09-17T01:36:13Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I also suspect as the polls get uglier for Hillary, her supporters will wake up and start actually doing something to help her win. Pretty polls don’t win elections. > > Speaking anecdotally: I run the campaign work for the AFL-CIO in one part of Michigan. That means, as various levels of labor endorse candidates from local through national, we work to get those candidates elected. For the first time in my memory, the presidential race isn’t our focal point-- probably because until recently, Hillary was \*very \*safe in Michigan. > > That said, for the past month, I’ve been going around to local unions asking for them to commit to a day of knocking on doors or phone banking for candidates. The resounding message has been something along the lines of “We’re going to wait until October, September is too early to really think about this.” This was while Hillary had a 85+% chance of winning the race according to Nate Silver. In the past four days, I’ve had 6 of those local presidents call me up to ask when and where they can send people to knock on doors. The race has tightened and so have people’s buttholes. > > So for me, the tightening race is a good thing, because it gets people off their collective asses to actually knock, phonebank, donate, and ultimately vote. Personally, I hadn’t donated a nickel to Hillary until last week when polls started to slip for her in Michigan. This is obviously all anecdotal, but I imagine similar things happening at Hillary offices, Democratic Party offices, etc. all across the country right now. > > The beast is starting to wake up, and I suspect the Trump side doesn’t have a beast anywhere near as organized as the Hillary side. I guess my point is, large leads in polls can make people feel better at night, but they don’t win elections. I’m glad Hillary’s chances have fallen below 70% on 538. > > So my point: A tight race is good for Hillary because she’s not especially inspirational (despite being the first female major party nominee), so there’s less enthusiasm around her. That being said, there’s plenty of enthusiasm around NOT LETTING TRUMP WIN. So when polls were strong for Hillary, people thought “Cake walk. I’m not needed here.” Now they’re tight, and I suspect people are starting to say, “Holy shit. I’m needed here. What can I do to help?” So despite all the hand-wringing and gnashing of teeth and nervous refreshing on 538 from a lot of people, I’m feeling good about this race today. Two weeks ago we had 7 people show up for a door knocking event in Muskegon, tomorrow we have 60+ already committed to coming. > > That’s not to say Trump can’t win, there’s a lot of unforeseeables ahead. But as everyone else sees despair in this race, I’m seeing new life. Just my 2 cents, for what they’re worth. You may be right. I hope so. Anecdotally, a few weeks ago I was feeling complacent. This week I gave several hundred dollars to her campaign. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/683 "2016-09-17T02:20:22Z")
> [@Alan\_Smithee](#): > > As Election Day approaches, the polls should stabilize, hopefully with Clinton at about 55%. If we’re just hoping for things, why not hope for 60%? I just checked, and Clinton is in the low-to-mid '40’s in pretty much every [url=[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016\_elections\_electoral\_college\_map.html=toss-up](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html=toss-up) state. Her best state (at least that I saw) was PA, where her polling average is 46.8. She only scored higher than 50% in two polls. If she got to 55% in the average of polls in ANY of those states, frankly, it’d be a miraculous swing in the election. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/684 "2016-09-17T02:38:36Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > If we’re just hoping for things, why not hope for 60%? > > I just checked, and Clinton is in the low-to-mid '40’s in pretty much every [url=[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016\_elections\_electoral\_college\_map.html=toss-up](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html=toss-up) state. Her best state (at least that I saw) was PA, where her polling average is 46.8. She only scored higher than 50% in two polls. If she got to 55% in the average of polls in ANY of those states, frankly, it’d be a miraculous swing in the election. You’re right. As in other elections with significant third party runs, it’s unlikely that either major party candidate could hope to get to 50% in national polls. It would have made your case more honest to note that Alan Smithee wasn’t talking about national pols, but about 538 polls. Not that what he said makes any sense to me, because if Clinton has a several point lead 538’s predictions will tend toward 100% not 55%, and he talks about individual states as well. Overall, though, there’s no honest way to assume he’s expecting that Clinton will hit 55% in national polls. You’re not even bothering to cherrypick results; you’re outright falsifying them. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/685 "2016-09-17T02:39:34Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Silver’s polls plus forecast has Clinton at just below 60% to win. The electoral map has only Nevada as a state that’s just barely blue. Even without Nevada the rest of the states are enough for her to win. My current theory (and I could very well be wrong) is that Trump has picked up most of the “low hanging fruit” voters, and it will be more difficult for him to continue to make gains going forward. I’m guessing that PA is probably safe and Trump’s best chance is to win both NH and Nevada. At this point I’m guessing it probably won’t happen, but I’m by no means sure about that. I think the first debate is going to be a lot more important than some people give it credit for, and may decide the election. I find [this view on 538](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus&stateorder) to be the most helpful. Right now I read it as “Trump would have to win NV and NH, or CO, or significantly beat the odds by winning in PA, WI, MI, VA, or MN to win.” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 5:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/686 "2016-09-17T05:21:04Z")
The individual states only really matter in a race that’s essentially tied. If either candidate has a lead, even a small one, the electoral college will take care of itself. The odds of Trump winning the popular vote by even one point and losing the electoral college are small. His odds of winning the popular vote are 34.8%, his odds of losing the electoral college despite winning the popular vote 1.4%. So I believe that’s a 4% chance that he loses the electoral college if he wins the popular vote. We keep on tracking these states in the same way we track delegate totals in case there’s a brokered convention, but in the vast majority of elections the national popular vote is decisive. It really isn’t anymore complicated than that. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2016, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/687 "2016-09-17T05:28:07Z")
The national popular vote is never decisive. It’s just that the structure is such that the correlation is very high. ---
**Author:** ![ultimate11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/49beb7/32.png) [@ultimate11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultimate11)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2016, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/688 "2016-09-20T23:24:48Z")
Latest data shows a near 45% for Trump to win the election- according to polls plus. That’s higher than after the GOP convention. Nowcast are near 50/50. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2016, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/689 "2016-09-20T23:49:27Z")
The polls are always a little behind the news cycle. The data today probably take into account polls that have been released since last Friday through yesterday. I predicted her polls (and hence her chances of winning) would decline before 538’s model showed it - and they did. Likewise, since last Friday, Trump has had his own somewhat negative news cycle, with the worst of the damage possibly inflicted on Friday but not observed in poll data until about three days later. In addition, I think that the latest bombshell about the misappropriation of funds, which may or may not make an impact nationally, probably WILL impact Florida. For that reason, I’m slightly more bullish on Clinton now, on Sept 20, than I was this time last week. Again, this is when people are really paying attention now, so every missteps matters a lot more than it did in July and August. Over the past weeks, both candidates have stepped in it. Clinton probably stepped in a bigger, smellier pile with her comments about the deplorables and her inadvertent confirmation of a conspiracy theory, but Trump has now fumbled the football himself it would seem. Of particular note is the fact that Trump actually - if anyone can believe it - was actually starting to win some African American voters over with his charm offensive, and that trend probably continued until late last week. However, I suspect he has probably back slid a bit in the days since. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/690 "2016-09-21T01:23:30Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Of particular note is the fact that Trump actually - if anyone can believe it - was actually starting to win some African American voters over with his charm offensive, and that trend probably continued until late last week. However, I suspect he has probably back slid a bit in the days since. What makes you think the trend ended last week? Just supposition about the latest news cycle? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/691 "2016-09-21T01:25:06Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > What makes you think the trend ended last week? Just supposition about the latest news cycle? He did just say, today, that “the African American community is in the worst shape it’s ever been. Ever, ever, ever.” ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/692 "2016-09-21T01:35:11Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > He did just say, today, that “the African American community is in the worst shape it’s ever been. Ever, ever, ever.” Worse than 1840? Worse than 1940? What an ass. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/693 "2016-09-21T01:58:54Z")
Very interesting [article today](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/20/upshot/the-error-the-polling-world-rarely-talks-about.html?_r=0) by The Upshot which illustrates how big of a deal defining the LV screens is. _Same raw data_ from their recent Florida poll analyzed by four good pollsters results in anything from Trump +1 to Clinton +4 depending on what choices were made to adjust the demographics and moreso depending on what sort of LV screen was applied. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/694 "2016-09-21T02:28:37Z")
Interesting. I knew there was a lot of decision making to crunch the raw numbers but it’s neat to see how big a difference it makes even amongst good pollsters. Reminds me how laughable it was when those two engineers from Alberta did a poll and on their site proclaimed “anyone can do a poll, all you need is to know the methodology”. Oh, thanks for the Polyvote thread you did to. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 10:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/696 "2016-09-21T10:53:27Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > What makes you think the trend ended last week? Just supposition about the latest news cycle? Yep, and I stand by that supposition – mainly because the news cycle is a pretty good indicator of how the polls are about to move and, moreover, some recent polling data indicates that Clinton’s rapid descent has probably leveled off some. She’s still in treacherous territory of course - a bad debate performance would possibly allow Trump to pull ahead. And pulling ‘even’ is basically a +1 for Trump who probably has more committed voters. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/697 "2016-09-21T11:59:40Z")
So you think Hillary’s massive data and ground game advantage is swept away and even surpassed by the assumed enthusiasm of Trump supporters? No I have a feeling it’s Clinton that’ll beat her polling numbers. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/698 "2016-09-21T16:35:13Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > … some recent polling data indicates that Clinton’s rapid descent has probably leveled off some. Just looking at [the RCP average chart](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html), Trump has been gaining on Clinton ever since August 8th. I don’t see anything “rapid” about it. It’s been a long, slow slog from HRC ~+8 then, to HRC ~+1 today. In fact, looking at the line for the last month and a half, the phrase that comes to mind is “steady progress” for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/699 "2016-09-21T17:11:30Z")
I think that’s the right analysis. Trump has made steady progress since mid-August, for reasons that have little to do with the new cycle _du jour_ (including the claims of a big Trump bump from pneumonia-gate) . Indeed, if you wind the clock back to June, you see Clinton basically holding steady, maybe losing half-a-point, and Trump gaining 4 points or so. Mainly, it’s partisan Republicans coming back into the fold, as Trump’s GOP support has gone from mid-seventies to high-eighties. The question, as always, is what happens next. Right now, Trump is right around his historical high tide in the head-to-head with Clinton. If he keeps increasing until the debate, that will be a sign that he really has won some converts. If not, then 41-42 starts to look like a ceiling for him, at least until the undecideds start to come home (and they’re likely to split basically 50-50, as usual). I suspect we won’t have a clear answer to this question before the first debate fucks it all up. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/700 "2016-09-21T17:46:48Z")
Just one (more) poll, but Monmouth has Hillary +8 in NH. Add that to the recent +5 in FL, and I’m hopeful that it’s a sign that whatever bounce Trump might have gotten from Hillary’s health is fading. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2016, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/701 "2016-09-21T17:54:02Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Just one (more) poll, but Monmouth has Hillary +8 in NH. Add that to the recent +5 in FL, and I’m hopeful that it’s a sign that whatever bounce Trump might have gotten from Hillary’s health is fading. If you’re referring to the poll by “St. Leo University” I’d be pretty skeptical. At this point I am not sure there’s much to say until Debate 1 happens. Poll shifting between now and then will be just static by comparison to what that debate could do. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=34) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=36)