# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 42
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/822 "2016-09-26T14:45:51Z")
Haven’t checked the latest, has Trump said he won the debate yet? Was it huge? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/823 "2016-09-26T14:46:47Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Haven’t checked the latest, has Trump said he won the debate yet? Was it huge? I’m sure that in about 12 hours both candidates, or at least spokespeople for both candidates, will claim that they won the debate. ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/824 "2016-09-26T14:53:49Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > My belief, oft repeated by now, is that the electorate is pretty firmly polarized and entrenched with a relatively few who are only loosely attached to one of the two main candidates. I see that when those loosely attached are distributed without major news cycles impacts the race settles to roughly Clinton +4 (I did think +5 but have been corrected). Your belief is as good as my lack of belief. But I don’t see the same predictive power in the fact that the race _has in the past_ seemed to center around Clinton being ahead 4 (let’s say) in the national popular. The race could simply have changed. The effect of winning ‘daily news cycles’ or even a series of them surely has some decay function where some of the initial effect wears away. But it may have some effect that doesn’t wear away and accumulates if you win a lot of them. The race might be closer now simply because in a period of weeks Clinton’s position has deteriorated fundamentally relative to Trump’s with a small net % of the electorate (of course there must have been individuals switching from Trump, undecided or minor party to Clinton in recent weeks, but not as many as the flow in the other direction). That small net % may have viewed the events of recent weeks as, cumulatively, a basis to rethink their position. Also there’s some pro-Trump skew in the popular v EC as things seem to line up when it’s close. In RCP avg terms he’s down 1.5% in national popular but the RCP no toss ups map would flip from 272-266 Clinton to 275-263 Trump if he improved 0.2% in the avg (4 way) in CO. It’s tied at Trump down somewhere around 1% national popular. And this doesn’t seem to be an artifact of speaking in terms of poll avgs rather than % likelihood outputs. But the debates offer the possibility of a new trend, and again I doubt a particular settling point of the race. OK there’s a settling range that’s nothing like as wide as in the less polarized politics of say 1980. In those days polls would change many points with nobody collapsing on the debate stage, or finally publicly admitting their whole campaign was a joke that got out of control. But this race might just have changed for now from Clinton +4 to Clinton+1= EC tie, and Clinton might have to change it back with specific actions (or Trump mess it up specifically) if she wants a clear win. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/825 "2016-09-26T14:53:56Z")
Latest on 538: High Point University (B+) poll show Clinton +1 in NC (Nate’s adjustment: Tie). Helps shift the Polls-Only up a titch to 51.8. I reckon there will be a ton of polls released today. They’ll all be (largely) meaningless after tonight-- not entirely, but largely. ---
**Author:** ![ultimate11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/49beb7/32.png) [@ultimate11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultimate11)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/826 "2016-09-26T15:06:05Z")
Now the title of my thread makes sense again- now cast is now [54.5%](https://goo.gl/photos/JW99vFBTVdztq2NbA) for Trump (the link shows the snapshot, in case the data is changed) heading into the debate. Polls-Plus is almost a virtual tie, with a 1.8% advantage for Clinton over Trump. Polls-Only has the same results. Just me, or is Colorado about to turn red? What could cause it to turn red? ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/827 "2016-09-26T15:29:41Z")
I feel sick. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/828 "2016-09-26T15:32:15Z")
You are. So, don’t worry, you are not wrong. Sick, twisted, abnormal. Not to fret, you get used to it after about thirty, forty years. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/829 "2016-09-26T15:35:11Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > I feel sick. Don’t puke, knock on doors. And whilst you’re evacuating your Trump-induced watery bowels, might I suggest going to [HillaryClinton.com](http://HillaryClinton.com) on your smart phone and making a $5-$10 donation. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/830 "2016-09-26T15:40:35Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > I feel sick. I began feeling sick months ago when nobody thought Trump had a prayer. Can’t say I’m happy to see others turning green, but at least I have some company around the bucket. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/831 "2016-09-26T15:44:13Z")
> [@VinylTurnip](#): > > I began feeling sick months ago when nobody thought Trump had a prayer. Can’t say I’m happy to see others turning green, but at least I have some company around the bucket. I think it was in this thread many pages earlier that I was nervous about Hillary only showing up as having a 75% chance, implying Trump had a 1 in 4 to win the election. Seems my fears have not been overblown. There’s still plenty of time, but it did worry me back then that the race was as close and volatile as it was. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/832 "2016-09-26T16:00:53Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Don’t puke, knock on doors. And whilst you’re evacuating your Trump-induced watery bowels, might I suggest going to [HillaryClinton.com](http://HillaryClinton.com) on your smart phone and making a $5-$10 donation. Because the last $100M has been so well-spent and effective? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/833 "2016-09-26T16:04:14Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Because the last $100M has been so well-spent and effective? Well, things is that electing Trump will cost all Americans more than that. Yes, Trump can win. But that does not mean that it would be the best thing. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/834 "2016-09-26T16:06:38Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Because the last $100M has been so well-spent and effective? GOTV hasn’t begun, and it costs money. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/835 "2016-09-26T16:13:17Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Don’t puke, knock on doors. And whilst you’re evacuating your Trump-induced watery bowels, might I suggest going to [HillaryClinton.com](http://HillaryClinton.com) on your smart phone and making a $5-$10 donation. I appreciate what you suggest, but knocking on doors in my red county w/in a blue state ain’t gonna accomplish much. (Besides the fact that my job prohibits even posting a sign…) And what is your reason for suspecting more $ for Clinton will accomplish a darned thing? Not really trying to dump on you - but feeling so sick - and helpless - right now. If Trump is elected, we will have exactly the president we deserve, and I suggest many people will need to adjust what we believe to be our image of our country. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/836 "2016-09-26T16:24:26Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > I appreciate what you suggest, but knocking on doors in my red county w/in a blue state ain’t gonna accomplish much. (Besides the fact that my job prohibits even posting a sign…) > > And what is your reason for suspecting more $ for Clinton will accomplish a darned thing? > > Not really trying to dump on you - but feeling so sick - and helpless - right now. If Trump is elected, we will have exactly the president we deserve, and I suggest many people will need to adjust what we believe to be our image of our country. Black people, immigrants, Muslims, women, and others won’t “deserve” such a president (at least most of them won’t!). ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/837 "2016-09-26T16:26:08Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > And what is your reason for suspecting more $ for Clinton will accomplish a darned thing? Field operations, including the very-important GOTV, cost money. And with a lot of states in-play, that means more need for field operations. ---
**Author:** ![ultimate11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/49beb7/32.png) [@ultimate11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultimate11)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/838 "2016-09-26T16:29:06Z")
Personally, I’d love to see DJT win over HRC. Not that I have a preference towards each party, but because the political pace is going to change when it happens. A “who’s laughing now?” moment in the United States. I’ll vote for free (whoever I’m voting for will be saved for November, unless I don’t anyways) and use the $20 I wasn’t going to donate anyways on pizza. Now- Giordano’s or Connie’s at Archer? ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/839 "2016-09-26T16:29:37Z")
Yeah some scary polls out today. If you look at RCP their no-tossup count gives it to Hillary 272-266 and that includes Colorado where she is up by 0.2%. In the last couple of weeks her “blue wall” has crumbled into dust. I would still give her the edge because I think her superior ground operation is worth a point or two and I am still counting on Trump to make big mistakes especially during the debates. Hillary also has a massive advantage from popular surrogates like Obama, Bill and Biden and you can bet that they will step up their campaigning in the final weeks. The first debate couldn’t be set up more nicely; it’s truly going to be an epic moment in US political history. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/840 "2016-09-26T16:30:10Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > If Trump is elected, we will have exactly the president we deserve, and I suggest many people will need to adjust what we believe to be our image of our country. Both sides feel this way, or at least the losing side does. That’s how Dems felt after GWB was elected, how Reps felt after BHO was elected, etc. The losing side always feels like the country let them down, it’s even worse than we thought, etc. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/841 "2016-09-26T16:30:31Z")
> [@ultimate11](#): > > Personally, I’d love to see DJT win over HRC. Not that I have a preference towards each party, but because the political pace is going to change when it happens. A “who’s laughing now?” moment in the United States. > > I’ll vote for free and use the $20 I wasn’t going to donate anyways on pizza. Now- Giordano’s or Connie’s at Archer? “Change” isn’t enough – change can be in the right or wrong direction. Trump would be a change back towards white supremacism, and while I’d probably be fine, friends and family would not be (in addition to the principle that white supremacism must _always_ be strongly opposed). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=41) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=43)