# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 43
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/842 "2016-09-26T16:32:53Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > Hillary also has a massive advantage from popular surrogates like Obama, Bill and Biden and you can bet that they will step up their campaigning in the final weeks. I probably agree with you about the ground game (although, perhaps her advantage there is overblown), and Trump has an excellent chance of sticking his foot in his mouth, but I’m curious about this point. Do you think Bill, Obama, and Biden have not been campaigning hard for her up to this point? I sort of figured whatever advantage they bestowed was already baked into the polls at this point. ---
**Author:** ![ultimate11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/49beb7/32.png) [@ultimate11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultimate11)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/843 "2016-09-26T16:41:36Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > “Change” isn’t enough – change can be in the right or wrong direction. Trump would be a change back towards white supremacism, and while I’d probably be fine, friends and family would not be (in addition to the principle that white supremacism must _always_ be strongly opposed). White supremacism? I doubt that will be prevalent. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/844 "2016-09-26T16:47:31Z")
> [@ultimate11](#): > > Personally, I’d love to see DJT win over HRC. Not that I have a preference towards each party, but because the political pace is going to change when it happens. A “who’s laughing now?” moment in the United States. > > I’ll vote for free (whoever I’m voting for will be saved for November, unless I don’t anyways) and use the $20 I wasn’t going to donate anyways on pizza. Now- Giordano’s or Connie’s at Archer? Well you are indeed what I also think is going on, that a very significant part of the support for Trump is coming from chaotic neutrals that do want to see things fall apart or to change just because. Problem is that while you think that it would be interesting the point is that a Trump presidency will be costly for all, including you. > **['President Trump' would cost U.S. economy $1 trillion](https://money.cnn.com/2016/09/14/news/economy/donald-trump-economic-plan-1-trillion/)** > > Donald Trump's economic, tax and immigration reforms, if fully executed, would cost the U.S. economy $1 trillion, according to Oxford Economics. > [@](#): > > Oxford Economics found that if fully implemented, Trump’s economic, tax and immigration policies would cost 4 million U.S. jobs, weigh down global growth and U.S. consumer spending, and could spark a trade war with other nations. > > “Combining these policies together, the impact could be significantly negative for the U.S. economy,” says Jamie Thompson, head of macro scenarios at Oxford Economics. > > Oxford’s figures are in line with other analysis. The University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton Budget Model forecasts Trump’s immigration policy costing 4 million jobs and Moody’s economist Mark Zandi – a Clinton supporter – also forecasts a similar job loss under Trump. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/845 "2016-09-26T16:48:09Z")
> [@ultimate11](#): > > White supremacism? I doubt that will be prevalent. It will be more prevalent than otherwise – white supremacist group recruitment and public involvement has gone way, way up since the rise of Trump. Trump himself gained prominence by pushing a white supremacist conspiracy theory (birtherism). ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/846 "2016-09-26T16:52:41Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > white supremacist group recruitment and public involvement has gone way, way up since the rise of Trump. Cite? I know Clinton said something about this once, but I never caught her source. Please let it be from somewhere other than SPLC. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/847 "2016-09-26T16:52:51Z")
> [@ultimate11](#): > > White supremacism? I doubt that will be prevalent. The reality is that the supremacists will not get all what they want, but they will abuse their power based on what they think the new laws and orders will be about. It will also help their confidence on how much they can get away with when they will have a more conservative court that will support laws that on the surface sound fair but are designed to hurt minorities and women. In the environmental front it will hurt us all. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/848 "2016-09-26T16:54:32Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I probably agree with you about the ground game (although, perhaps her advantage there is overblown), and Trump has an excellent chance of sticking his foot in his mouth, but I’m curious about this point. Do you think Bill, Obama, and Biden have not been campaigning hard for her up to this point? I sort of figured whatever advantage they bestowed was already baked into the polls at this point. Well Bill has a lot of free time but Obama and Biden are probably kinda busy with their day jobs. I suspect both of them will really turn it on in the final few weeks. What I am really counting on is the combination of a data-driven ground operation and the diverse array of surrogates that Hillary can call on: both Obamas, Bill, Biden, Bernie, Warren and of course Kaine. Each will probably work best in particular states and for particular demographics and I am hoping that in the final weeks between the third debate and the election each will be deployed with military precision to where they bring the maximum benefit. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/849 "2016-09-26T16:56:19Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > Well Bill has a lot of free time but Obama and Biden are probably kinda busy with their day jobs. I suspect both of them will really turn it on in the final few weeks. > > What I am really counting on is the combination of a data-driven ground operation and the diverse array of surrogates that Hillary can call on: both Obamas, Bill, Biden, Bernie, Warren and of course Kaine. Each will probably work best in particular states and for particular demographics and I am hoping that in the final weeks between the third debate and the election each will be deployed with military precision to where they bring the maximum benefit. The idea that HRC’s last, best hope is a team of surrogates - that she needs someone else to swoop in and win the election for her - is, I think, very telling. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/850 "2016-09-26T17:02:33Z")
Well yes I have been saying for a long time she is a mediocre candidate and her predicament against possibly the worst presidential candidate ever doesn’t surprise me that much. She will have her role to play too in the debates and I am expecting a competent performance from her. If she does that, I think her ground operation and the dream team of surrogates will push her over the finish line. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/851 "2016-09-26T17:05:11Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Cite? I know Clinton said something about this once, but I never caught her source. Please let it be from somewhere other than SPLC. The SPLC is a great organization – that you ignore them means you’re missing out on great data. But [here](http://time.com/4156821/donald-trump-kkk/) are some [other sources](http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/donald-trump-white-supremacists-216620) (they cite the SPLC, ADL, as well as white supremacist organizations and leaders themselves). ---
**Author:** ![Airbeck](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/airbeck/32/6574_2.png) [@Airbeck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airbeck)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/852 "2016-09-26T17:06:25Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > The idea that HRC’s last, best hope is a team of surrogates - that she needs someone else to swoop in and win the election for her - is, I think, very telling. About as telling as the fact that this was your takeaway from that post… ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/853 "2016-09-26T17:09:15Z")
I don’t know this for a fact, but it seems that a possible problem that Hillary is having is that she’s having trouble getting back into the spotlight. Whether by design or sheer coincidence, Trump has been dominating the news cycle the last 7-10 days - not necessarily for the right reasons but none of the press seems to be especially fatal. He has simply swung from one outrage to another. I think Hillary is potentially in big, big trouble here…and by virtue of that fact, so are we. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/854 "2016-09-26T17:09:37Z")
You called them the “Dream Team” but I don’t see them that way. Obama’s job approval is _barely_ over 50%, Joe Biden has a reputation for saying crazy things, Bill Clinton is like a walking, talking reminder of “I did not have sex with that woman” and other embarrassing moments from HRC’s past. Really, her best surrogate is probably Michelle Obama. The others are kind of … mediocre. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/855 "2016-09-26T17:10:47Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Black people, immigrants, Muslims, women, and others won’t “deserve” such a president (at least most of them won’t!). Every one of them (at least in states that go red) who fails to vote for HRC will. Any numbers on HRC’s warchest? I had the impression she was swimming in it a la Scrooge McDuck? Gotta say, as a white suburban guy in his 50s, with a very comfortable income from a pretty secure job (which legislation could nevertheless eliminate), with his kids out of school/out of the house/employed, and with enough savings/retirement bennies to not be worried, I doubt my day-to-day life will be affected much one way or the other if Trump is elected. My concerns are for the less fortunate, for future generations, and for how our country chooses to project itself internationally. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/856 "2016-09-26T17:11:29Z")
> [@Airbeck](#): > > About as telling as the fact that this was your takeaway from that post… Nah, it’s telling. In the end, races are ultimately about the individuals themselves. And Trump, like him or loathe him, is dominating the public personality game. He will probably get his ass kicked on policy specifics and facts, but that may not necessarily matter. We will know a lot more in 72 hours, I think. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/857 "2016-09-26T17:11:33Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > You called them the “Dream Team” but I don’t see them that way. Obama’s job approval is _barely_ over 50%, Joe Biden has a reputation for saying crazy things, Bill Clinton is like a walking, talking reminder of “I did not have sex with that woman” and other embarrassing moments from HRC’s past. Really, her best surrogate is probably Michelle Obama. The others are kind of … mediocre. In this incredible polarization, Obama’s approval of over 50% is phenomenal. It’s incredibly hard to do better than that today. I’m not sure if there’s anyone currently in office with a higher job approval rating. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/858 "2016-09-26T17:12:54Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Cite? I know Clinton said something about this once, but I never caught her source. Please let it be from somewhere other than SPLC. Well, that is just begging to poison the well before bothering to report where is that the SPLC gets it wrong, in any case it is not only the SPLC who is reporting that, but the anti defamation league, and even the hate groups themselves: [http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/donald-trump-white-supremacists-216620](http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/donald-trump-white-supremacists-216620) ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/859 "2016-09-26T17:13:54Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > … a very comfortable income from a pretty secure job (which legislation could nevertheless eliminate) … Just curious, what kind of job could legislation eliminate? Some sort of .gov position? ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/860 "2016-09-26T17:15:15Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Every one of them (at least in states that go red) who fails to vote for HRC will. > > Any numbers on HRC’s warchest? I had the impression she was swimming in it a la Scrooge McDuck? > > Gotta say, as a white suburban guy in his 50s, with a very comfortable income from a pretty secure job (which legislation could nevertheless eliminate), with his kids out of school/out of the house/employed, and with enough savings/retirement bennies to not be worried, I doubt my day-to-day life will be affected much one way or the other if Trump is elected. My concerns are for the less fortunate, for future generations, and for how our country chooses to project itself internationally. I would not be so sure of that. There is nothing right now that would make you feel alarmed, but a bad president can do spectacular damage in a relatively short span of time. I remember the guy we elected in 2000 and 2004. Took us less than 8 years to go from record post-WWII economic stats to the worst economic crisis in 80 years. And we still have troops fighting wars in the ME with no end in sight and a national debt that may will approach crisis stage in the next 5-10 years – sooner if the big Cheetoh gets elected. But don’t worry folks, Trump’s got it covered: he’ll just default on our debts and pull out of WTO. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2016, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/861 "2016-09-26T17:15:46Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Any numbers on HRC’s warchest? I had the impression she was swimming in it a la Scrooge McDuck? Pretty accurate. [http://www.opensecrets.org/pres16/](http://www.opensecrets.org/pres16/) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=42) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=44)