# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 50
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/982 "2016-10-01T05:13:45Z")
It’s also moved from 5 to 7 twice. FWIW Wang has quoted 4 as more the longer term average with 3 up or down being a reasonable news cycle driven range. Hitting 7 and hitting 1 are both probable events to sometimes occur in that scenario. Going beyond those ranges require big events Still yes with the right combination of news cycles it could get back to 1 again. Or to 7.\* But time is getting tight and more voters are more firm in their support. And there is no reason to believe that Johnson voters and the still undecided will break, if they do break, more to Trump than to Clinton. The fairly consistent trend for Clinton’s lead to be higher when likely voters are asked to choose between the two rather than a four-way question (e.g. the current Fox poll +5 in the two-way to +3 in the four-way) if anything supports the opposite contention. Or they stay home. [The Upshot](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/01/upshot/so-just-who-are-these-undecided-voters.html?ref=politics) just looked at who the undecided voters are. > [@](#): > > the undecideds of 2016 look a lot like those who remained unsure at this point in 2012. … In 2012, roughly half the people who were undecided at the end of the campaign stayed home. The other half split in similar proportions to the overall vote share. Despite the many ways that the 2016 election has been unexpected and unusual, the characteristics of undecided voters is not one of them. This may mean that we can expect half of them to stay home and the other half to split similarly to those who have decided already. They may be holdouts, but they are unlikely to be pivotal. \*Personally I’d give the possibility of going up to 7 higher odds than going back down to 1. Trump does best in the polls when he relatively shuts his piehole. Seeing himself down 4 or 5 will incite him to do something dramatic and the odds are that his drama will be the news cycles that drive the margin up. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/983 "2016-10-01T12:45:42Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > … The Rasmussen +1 compared to the earlier -2 backs it up … Minor correction: that was compared to -5 the previous week. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/984 "2016-10-01T12:48:33Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > The Fox +3 compared to the +1 of two weeks back is the most concrete evidence of a debate bounce. The Rasmussen +1 compared to the earlier -2 backs it up though the dates are 26-28 so I am not sure it’s entirely post-debate (seems odd to start a poll on the same day as the debate). > > I expected a debate bounce of 2-3 points but after Trump’s remarkable Machado meltdown there could be a second post-debate bounce. > > Possibly, just possibly we may be done and Hillary may now obtain a comfortable lead which she keeps till election day. Pretty much how I see it as well. I thought Trump would suffer a 4 point drop in the first few days just based on his drubbing in the debates, but that would have been somewhat recoverable. It would have put him at a greater disadvantage, but nothing that couldn’t be corrected over time with shifts in news coverage and a better debate performance. But as you say, his post-debate meltdown is killing his chances. Trump doesn’t have time to recover from this and the damage has been inflicted over a wide geographic area. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 12:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/985 "2016-10-01T12:56:53Z")
THere’s a category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean that may have some effect depending on how well FEMA does it’s job. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/986 "2016-10-01T13:01:34Z")
Category 4 **storm** as of this morning. I’m currently on Hatteras Island and will be for another week so I’m following it closely.:eek: ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/987 "2016-10-01T13:05:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > THere’s a category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean that may have some effect depending on how well FEMA does it’s job. I’m sure Brownie would do a heckuva job if he were there. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/988 "2016-10-01T13:24:22Z")
Latest 538 odds: Polls-plus (64.4%-35.5%) Polls-only (67.7%-32.3%) Now-cast (74.9%-25.1%) FL, NC, and NV are blue in all three; OH is blue in the Now-cast. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/989 "2016-10-01T13:41:26Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > THere’s a category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean that may have some effect depending on how well FEMA does it’s job. If repubs are hanging their hats on the hopes of a natural disaster, history would suggest they’re going to be shit outta luck – this president has been infinitely better at responding to emergencies than his predecessor. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/990 "2016-10-01T13:42:56Z")
Gonna need some aloe for that burn, dude. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/991 "2016-10-01T13:46:56Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Latest 538 odds: > > Polls-plus (64.4%-35.5%) > Polls-only (67.7%-32.3%) > Now-cast (74.9%-25.1%) > > FL, NC, and NV are blue in all three; OH is blue in the Now-cast. IIRC Trump is way down in NV, which tells me that he probably lost some voters for good there. He wasn’t going to win that state by much if he did, so I can’t imagine his campaign is too optimistic at this point. If the race were to end today I’d probably give it to Clinton 307 to 231 but public opinion is still a little fluid even now and I’ll be curious to see a body of polling data in OH and NC before predicting a Hillary win there. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/992 "2016-10-01T13:48:14Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Latest 538 odds: > > Polls-plus (64.4%-35.5%) > Polls-only (67.7%-32.3%) > Now-cast (74.9%-25.1%) > > FL, NC, and NV are blue in all three; OH is blue in the Now-cast. Still showing NC pink in polls-plus, unfortunately. I really really hope my state joins in the Great Repudiation. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/993 "2016-10-01T13:50:35Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > If repubs are hanging their hats on the hopes of a natural disaster, history would suggest they’re going to be shit outta luck – this president has been infinitely better at responding to emergencies than his predecessor. No one’s staking hopes on anything. It’s just a fact that a major disaster could be coming our way next week and FEMA’s performance could decide the election much as it did to his benefit in 2012. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/994 "2016-10-01T13:59:34Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > No one’s staking hopes on anything. It’s just a fact that a major disaster could be coming our way next week and FEMA’s performance could decide the election much as it did to his benefit in 2012. The response in 2016 will be the same as it was in 2012. What might well change, however, is the response of a republican governor. Will there be a Chris Christie who graciously accepts the assistance of federal authorities, or are we going to see GOP mayors or governors rejecting aid at the expense of their constituents? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/995 "2016-10-01T14:25:19Z")
Assume nothing. It’s not as if this administration never drops the ball. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/996 "2016-10-01T14:40:01Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > If repubs are hanging their hats on the hopes of a natural disaster, history would suggest they’re going to be shit outta luck – this president has been infinitely better at responding to emergencies than his predecessor. There’s this potential disaster looming as well. > **[Risk of big earthquake on San Andreas fault rises after quake swarm at Salton...](https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-earthquake-swarm-20160930-snap-story.html)** > > The rumbling started Monday morning deep under the Salton Sea. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/997 "2016-10-01T14:59:36Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Latest 538 odds: > > Polls-plus (64.4%-35.5%) > Polls-only (67.7%-32.3%) > Now-cast (74.9%-25.1%) > > FL, NC, and NV are blue in all three; OH is blue in the Now-cast. Wasn’t the Nowcast 76.6%-23.4% just last night? ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/998 "2016-10-01T15:03:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > THere’s a category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean that may have some effect depending on how well FEMA does it’s job. > [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > There’s this potential disaster looming as well. > > [http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-earthquake-swarm-20160930-snap-story.html](http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-earthquake-swarm-20160930-snap-story.html) Is it a contention that natural disasters benefit Republican candidates’ chances? If so, where does this come from? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/999 "2016-10-01T15:15:35Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Is it a contention that natural disasters benefit Republican candidates’ chances? If so, where does this come from? I think the contention is that if Obama somehow messes up the relief, this somehow reflects poorly on Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1000 "2016-10-01T16:10:24Z")
Minimally it would give Trump some relief from what has been a bad news cycle and a chance to reset. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1001 "2016-10-01T16:13:23Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Wasn’t the Nowcast 76.6%-23.4% just last night? Illustrating the minor idiosyncratic nature of 538’s different models - all minimal shifts but NowCast and Polls-plus marginally down while Polls-only is marginally up. Insignificant changes but weird. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=49) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=51)