# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 51
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1002 "2016-10-01T17:09:49Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > I think the contention is that if Obama somehow messes up the relief, this somehow reflects poorly on Hillary. He had a natural disaster about 6 weeks ago and seems no worse for the wear. The problem for republicans is the same one that it is for the democrats: their candidate is not getting necessarily any more popular. There’s no way to fix that problem, and at this stage, it would seem that Trump has perhaps committed a fatal series of errors. Again, time and geography work against him. The only thing I could truly see working against Clinton and Democrats is either a massive terrorist attack or a series of Orlando and San Bernardino type events – and/or multiple Ferguson, Charlotte, Dallas type riots and police shootings. This would all have to happen in the next 2-3 weeks as well, to allow enough time for a sea-change in the electorate. It could happen, but what are the odds? ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1003 "2016-10-01T20:35:47Z")
Trendline appears to be on the brink. Another 538 update an hour ago. The now-cast has FL and NC light blue with Polls only has NC pink. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1004 "2016-10-01T22:00:01Z")
If you haven’t checked in on him lately, Scott Adams is really getting delusional. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1005 "2016-10-01T22:07:29Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > If you haven’t checked in on him lately, Scott Adams is really getting delusional. I look forward to him, in the last days before the election, suddenly reversing himself and saying Trump blew it by not being a good enough persuader at the last minute or whatever. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1006 "2016-10-01T22:59:15Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > If you haven’t checked in on him lately, Scott Adams is really getting delusional. I was just wondering how he was coping with all the overwhelming evidence that Trump is pretty much the _opposite_ of a mastermind. His Twitter feed does look like genuine derangement, what with Armies of Trolls Polluting His Question (huh?) and this September 26 gem: > [@](#): > > I explain how Trump uses factual wrongness to achieve emotional rightness that matters more. [x.com](https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) O_kay_! For a while there, apparently, the tactic of claiming that someone who does dumb stuff is ‘Playing 4th Dimensional Chess’ seemed (to Adams) to be working just fine. But at some point the derisive laughter must become fairly deafening. The ego wound may make it impossible for him to adjust to reality. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1007 "2016-10-01T23:30:21Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > I was just wondering how he was coping with all the overwhelming evidence that Trump is pretty much the _opposite_ of a mastermind. Not a mastermind? Au contraire! Here is Scott Adams claiming Trump’s 3D chess move by purposely losing the debate: “But the most interesting question has to do with what problem both of them were trying to solve with the debate. Clinton tried to look healthy, and as I mentioned, I don’t think she completely succeeded. But Trump needed to solve exactly one problem: Look less scary. Trump needed to counter Clinton’s successful branding of him as having a bad temperament to the point of being dangerous to the country. Trump accomplished exactly that…by…losing the debate.” ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1008 "2016-10-01T23:33:15Z")
I think that Adam’s character of the pointy-haired boss in his comic strip is _supposed_ to be the rational, intelligent character. The rest of us just are not getting it the way he intends… ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2016, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1009 "2016-10-01T23:42:34Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Not a mastermind? Au contraire! Here is Scott Adams claiming Trump’s 3D chess move by purposely losing the debate: > > “But the most interesting question has to do with what problem both of them were trying to solve with the debate. Clinton tried to look healthy, and as I mentioned, I don’t think she completely succeeded. But Trump needed to solve exactly one problem: Look less scary. Trump needed to counter Clinton’s successful branding of him as having a bad temperament to the point of being dangerous to the country. Trump accomplished exactly that…by…losing the debate.” I… I don’t… I mean, he’s not the only one to think this way, but how…? I can’t… I… I just… ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1010 "2016-10-02T14:36:54Z")
Yet another update, it looks like Clinton’s gain is slowing down. Polls only: 67% Polls plus: 64.4% Now cast: 73.3% Polls only in NV and FL are firming up in the mid-50s while NC remains thin as a hair at 50.1%. Clinton appears to be topping out in the low to mid 60s unless Ohio flips and they don’t have a poll there any later than Sept 26 so the debate isn’t baked in there yet. I’d assume the slide is based on overall national trendlines. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1011 "2016-10-02T15:19:22Z")
Well, Trump is probably guaranteed to have another bad week now that NYT has released his tax records. As with all things Trump, there’s the initial bomb drop of the controversy and then there’s the shock wave of his post-controversy meltdown. Even so, I don’t think Hillary is going to get that much more popular, so she’ll be lucky to cross 50 percent and probably even fortunate to get well above 45 percent. The good news is, Trump could dip well below that amount and it seems right now that’s where things are headed. ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1012 "2016-10-02T15:27:13Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Well, Trump is probably guaranteed to have another bad week now that NYT has released his tax records. As with all things Trump, there’s the initial bomb drop of the controversy and then there’s the shock wave of his post-controversy meltdown. Exactly. I remember reading in an article about Hillary’s debate prep that one of Trump’s most effective triggers was to question his actual wealth/success. HRC went straight for the jugular with this at the debate with predictable results, and now the MSM is calling him out on a nearly billion dollar loss that is backed up by hard evidence. ---
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1013 "2016-10-02T16:53:42Z")
According to the RCP average, it looks like Trump’s numbers did not actually drop after the debate. Hillary went up from 45% to 47.5%. Trump moved from 44% to 45%. For contrast, after the DNC convention Trump fell to a low of 40% and Hillary moved to a high of 48%, which created a substantial 8 point lead for Clinton. As good as Clinton’s debate performance was, it’s not causing Republicans to change their vote. My guess is that she just increased her likeability among Democrats and independents. This raises the question of how horribly unqualified a candidate must be for voters to vote for the opposing political party. We haven’t reached that threshold yet. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1014 "2016-10-02T17:03:10Z")
The group of people who will switch from Trump to Clinton or vice versa is effectively zero. The group of people who are so fed up that they aren’t planning on voting at all or who plan to vote for Stein or Johnson are the target demographic. They need to be disgusted enough with one candidate that they will vote for the other one. This seems to be, correctly, the strategy that Clinton is taking in the debates. Trump is trying to fire up the base which is not going to be as effective. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1015 "2016-10-02T17:53:07Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Well, Trump is probably guaranteed to have another bad week now that NYT has released his tax records. As with all things Trump, there’s the initial bomb drop of the controversy and then there’s the shock wave of his post-controversy meltdown. > > Even so, I don’t think Hillary is going to get that much more popular, so she’ll be lucky to cross 50 percent and probably even fortunate to get well above 45 percent. The good news is, Trump could dip well below that amount and it seems right now that’s where things are headed. In addition, I wonder to what extent the VP debate will have an impact. In normal election years it does little to move people, but given how far from a normal election year this is couldn’t it have some influence on undecideds looking for a reason to vote one way or the other? I’m not sure how Kaine will come across to a national audience but Pence strikes me as a moralistic prig. I also think Pence will have a hard time defending some of Trump’s more odious rhetoric. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1016 "2016-10-02T17:59:51Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > In addition, I wonder to what extent the VP debate will have an impact. In normal election years it does little to move people, but given how far from a normal election year this is couldn’t it have some influence on undecideds looking for a reason to vote one way or the other? I’m not sure how Kaine will come across to a national audience but Pence strikes me as a moralistic prig. I also think Pence will have a hard time defending some of Trump’s more odious rhetoric. I’ve not seen Kaine debate but every time I’ve seen him in front of a camera (save the Convention) he’s been pretty poised. He’s much better at dealing with reporters one on one than Clinton. A bigger question is, who will be watching the debate. My guess is that partisans will be but perhaps some undecideds could be as well and they might be using this debate as their bullshit filter, so I agree that it’s not an unimportant appearance for either candidate. I think the debate coaches are probably going to use Pence to be aggressive with Kaine, but if Kaine can turn some of Trump’s statements against him and not say anything that can be turned into a meme, then he wins. I also think that he, more than Hillary, can prosecute the case against the GOP’s racist campaign. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1017 "2016-10-02T18:33:52Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > Yet another update, it looks like Clinton’s gain is slowing down. > > Polls only: 67% > Polls plus: 64.4% > Now cast: 73.3% > > Polls only in NV and FL are firming up in the mid-50s while NC remains thin as a hair at 50.1%. Clinton appears to be topping out in the low to mid 60s unless Ohio flips and they don’t have a poll there any later than Sept 26 so the debate isn’t baked in there yet. I’d assume the slide is based on overall national trendlines. There haven’t really been any new polls to drive this – this is likely due to old polls dropping off. We’ll get a new batch of polls next week and it might stay the same or go up or down. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1018 "2016-10-02T19:19:43Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > We’ll get a new batch of polls next week and it might stay the same or go up or down. Or it could surprise us all and do none of those things! ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1019 "2016-10-02T19:25:58Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Or it could surprise us all and do none of those things! You’re right, maybe I was too specific. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1020 "2016-10-02T19:49:13Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **hajario** : > > The group of people who will switch from Trump to Clinton or vice versa is effectively zero. The group of people who are so fed up that they aren’t planning on voting at all or who plan to vote for Stein or Johnson are the target demographic. They need to be disgusted enough with one candidate that they will vote for the other one. This seems to be, correctly, the strategy that Clinton is taking in the debates. Trump is trying to fire up the base which is not going to be as effective. Or to go the other way: Convince some of your opponent’s supporters that they’re too odious to actually support, and to instead vote for a third party or stay home. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1021 "2016-10-02T20:41:59Z")
I always check the “updates” tab on 538 which tells you the polls that were just input into the model – sometimes they are old polls that are received late. This is the case for most of today’s updates, so it’s much too early to conclude that her post-debate surge is over. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=50) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=52)