# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 52
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1022 "2016-10-02T21:56:39Z")
Well yeah. They say so as much in the blog [post](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-craziest-end-to-the-2016-campaign-runs-through-new-mexico/) of the day (before indulging in some what-if play about Johnson winning NM): > [@](#): > > This weekend was a letdown for those of us hoping for new, high-quality national polls to test how last week’s debate affected the campaign. The only new national polls we received were updates to the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times and UPI/CVoter tracking polls, both of which have actually moved slightly toward Donald Trump, but they still contain a mix of pre-debate and post-debate data. Meanwhile, an ABC News/Washington Post poll showed Hillary Clinton expanding her favorability rating gap with Trump — her numbers are bad, but his numbers are worse. But that poll apparently didn’t actually ask respondents who they were voting for. > > So forecast-wise, we’re in the same place that we were on Friday … ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 2, 2016, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1023 "2016-10-02T22:01:51Z")
[Predictwise](http://predictwise.com/politics/) is an aggregator of prediction markets and social media (?) data, and it’s at almost its highest point its ever been at for Hillary (79% chance of victory). Predictit is the market that I occasionally play around in, and it has Hillary at 72%. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 10:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1024 "2016-10-03T10:17:24Z")
Again today, Trump’s taxes are dominating online media news. Chances are, he’ll say something batshit crazy and attack individuals to boost his self esteem, which will itself turn into another news cycle. By next Sunday, we will have had 2 weeks of almost completely negative news cycles for Trump. Not “OMG she’s sick!” news, but “OMG, this guy’s a billion dollar loser and a nut job” news cycle. I don’t think Hillary’s positives will increase that much and she’ll be lucky to get near 50%, but Donald is going to struggle to get above 40% for the rest of the race. I suspect some people might attack Hillary publicly but privately will decide not to vote or vote for Johnson. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 10:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1025 "2016-10-03T10:49:29Z")
I’ve been on social media and some other websites the last 24 hours and while I admit my anecdotes are completely unscientific, I’ve already sensed a change in mood. I think conservatives are now sensing that this might be Trump’s Waterloo and they’re having a harder time keeping a straight face with their debates. I also sense that there’s going to be extreme bitterness if Trump loses. I honestly think this is going to be a nasty final stretch and the months after the election are almost guaranteed to be toxic. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 11:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1026 "2016-10-03T11:11:22Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Or it could surprise us all and do none of those things! [QUOTE=Mitch Hedberg] I played in a death metal band. People either loved us or they hated us… or they thought we were OK. [/quote] … ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1027 "2016-10-03T11:39:59Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > … I miss Hedberg’s comedy. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![oft\_wears\_hats](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7993a0/32.png) [@oft\_wears\_hats](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/oft_wears_hats)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 12:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1028 "2016-10-03T12:27:46Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > I miss Hedberg’s comedy. 🙂 [Hedberg]Trump used to do coke. He still does, but he “used to”, too.[/Hedberg] ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1029 "2016-10-03T12:45:27Z")
Latest 538: Polls-plus ↑ 1.6% (65.4%-34.6%) Polls-only ↑ 1.0% (67.7%-32.3%) Now-cast ↑ 2.5% (75.3%-24.7%) Bumps due to a +6 national poll and a +7 VA poll. Yay! ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1030 "2016-10-03T14:10:21Z")
There were tons of ominous rumblings that Wikileaks was going to do a massive data dump on Wednesday that would ruin Clinton. Assange himself was going to announce it from the balcony of the embassy where he was holed up. Then it was cancelled due to security concerns. I’m not quite sure why he couldn’t release it anyway without all of the fucking grandstanding. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1031 "2016-10-03T14:53:49Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > There were tons of ominous rumblings that Wikileaks was going to do a massive data dump on Wednesday that would ruin Clinton. Assange himself was going to announce it from the balcony of the embassy where he was holed up. Then it was cancelled due to security concerns. I’m not quite sure why he couldn’t release it anyway without all of the fucking grandstanding. Probably because the security concerns are bullshit and he canceled for another reason. 7 ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1032 "2016-10-03T15:44:41Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Probably because the security concerns are bullshit and he canceled for another reason. 7 Much of Trump’s base will simply assume the revelations came out anyway, and will assign to it whatever value their own conspiracy take is; Clinton cheated on her husband, Clinton insulted Rosie O’Donnell, she’s a space alien, whatever. Introducing the topic instantly creates a reality in the Trumpist mind. [https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/finally-someone-who-thinks-like-me/2016/10/01/c9b6f334-7f68-11e6-9070-5c4905bf40dc\_story.html](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/finally-someone-who-thinks-like-me/2016/10/01/c9b6f334-7f68-11e6-9070-5c4905bf40dc_story.html) This is a Trumpist; you has to feel sorry for her, because she’s psychologically weak and deranged. But that’s who Trump (and his employee, Assange) are speaking to. You don’t need to make a logical argument; you need to just plant a seed, and it grows into a delusion. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1033 "2016-10-03T16:40:33Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > [https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/finally-someone-who-thinks-like-me/2016/10/01/c9b6f334-7f68-11e6-9070-5c4905bf40dc\_story.html](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/finally-someone-who-thinks-like-me/2016/10/01/c9b6f334-7f68-11e6-9070-5c4905bf40dc_story.html) > > This is a Trumpist; you has to feel sorry for her, because she’s psychologically weak and deranged. But that’s who Trump (and his employee, Assange) are speaking to. You don’t need to make a logical argument; you need to just plant a seed, and it grows into a delusion. Oh. My. God. That is actually pretty scary. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1034 "2016-10-03T17:33:10Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > [https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/finally-someone-who-thinks-like-me/2016/10/01/c9b6f334-7f68-11e6-9070-5c4905bf40dc\_story.html](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/finally-someone-who-thinks-like-me/2016/10/01/c9b6f334-7f68-11e6-9070-5c4905bf40dc_story.html) > > This is a Trumpist; you has to feel sorry for her, because she’s psychologically weak and deranged. But that’s who Trump (and his employee, Assange) are speaking to. You don’t need to make a logical argument; you need to just plant a seed, and it grows into a delusion. It was exploitative of the Washington Post to print that story; they took advantage of a mentally ill woman. They should have anonymized her details at the very least. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1035 "2016-10-03T18:43:46Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > It was exploitative of the Washington Post to print that story; they took advantage of a mentally ill woman. They should have anonymized her details at the very least. It’s exploitative that the Trump campaign takes advantaged of the mentally ill. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1036 "2016-10-03T18:50:30Z")
Latest 538 update, all from a very good CO poll (+10 HRC): Polls-plus ↑ 1.4% (66.6%-33.4%) Polls-only ↑ 1.4% (69.8%-30.2%) Now-cast ↑ 1.1% (76.7%-23.3%) ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1037 "2016-10-03T18:51:52Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > It was exploitative of the Washington Post to print that story; they took advantage of a mentally ill woman. They should have anonymized her details at the very least. You are totally right. The woman in the story is really, really sick, and is being used by the Post as a sort of freak show. I feel bad for participating in it. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1038 "2016-10-03T18:58:58Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > You are totally right. > > The woman in the story is really, really sick, and is being used by the Post as a sort of freak show. I feel bad for participating in it. How is she different than any other Trump voter? Rudy and Christie are just as deranged. (or are pretending to be) ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1039 "2016-10-03T19:05:08Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Much of Trump’s base will simply assume the revelations came out anyway, and will assign to it whatever value their own conspiracy take is; Clinton cheated on her husband, Clinton insulted Rosie O’Donnell, she’s a space alien, whatever. > > Introducing the topic instantly creates a reality in the Trumpist mind. > > [https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/finally-someone-who-thinks-like-me/2016/10/01/c9b6f334-7f68-11e6-9070-5c4905bf40dc\_story.html](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/finally-someone-who-thinks-like-me/2016/10/01/c9b6f334-7f68-11e6-9070-5c4905bf40dc_story.html) > > This is a Trumpist; you has to feel sorry for her, because she’s psychologically weak and deranged. But that’s who Trump (and his employee, Assange) are speaking to. You don’t need to make a logical argument; you need to just plant a seed, and it grows into a delusion. That’s pretty shady. Mental illness shouldn’t be ridiculed. Body shaming is not cool and the brain is an organ and she can’t help having the one she has. I’m sure Hillary has plenty of sub 100 IQ people voting for her. The whole of the 47%'ers that the dems have locked up can’t be all potential rocket scientists. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1040 "2016-10-03T19:16:33Z")
Agreed with the condemnation of WaPo on this one. **Procustus** there is a difference between true mental illness and having POVs that I consider sick and exploiting someone with a true mental illness for a rhetorical point is scuzzy at best. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1041 "2016-10-03T19:16:39Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > That’s pretty shady. Mental illness shouldn’t be ridiculed. Body shaming is not cool and the brain is an organ and she can’t help having the one she has. I’m sure Hillary has plenty of sub 100 IQ people voting for her. The whole of the 47%'ers that the dems have locked up can’t be all potential rocket scientists. So, to be clear, one shouldn’t criticize someone’s politics simply because they’re based on delusions, that because being delusional is a sign of mental illness we should respect the politics that result from delusion? I’d say that’s rich, except I don’t want to be accused of wealth-shaming. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=51) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=53)