# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 53
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1042 "2016-10-03T19:18:45Z")
[Hillary up by 10 in Harris County (Houston, TX)](http://digital.olivesoftware.com/Olive/Tablet/HoustonChronicle/SharedArticle.aspx?href=HHC%2F2016%2F10%2F02&id=Ar00701), the largest lead for a Democrat since 1964. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1043 "2016-10-03T19:23:52Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > That’s pretty shady. Mental illness shouldn’t be ridiculed. Body shaming is not cool and the brain is an organ and she can’t help having the one she has. I’m sure Hillary has plenty of sub 100 IQ people voting for her. The whole of the 47%'ers that the dems have locked up can’t be all potential rocket scientists. She’s well enough to vote. She’s well enough to attend Trump rallies and scream hatred of Hillary, along with everyone else in the crowd. She’s well enough to campaign for Trump. She’s well enough to agree to an interview and photographs. The people who are exploiting her mental illness are the scum on the alt-right who are feeding her delusions, and making her think that her mental illness is normal and right. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1044 "2016-10-03T19:25:56Z")
They are _also_ exploiting her. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1045 "2016-10-03T19:26:48Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > She’s well enough to vote. > She’s well enough to attend Trump rallies and scream hatred of Hillary, along with everyone else in the crowd. > She’s well enough to campaign for Trump. > She’s well enough to agree to an interview and photographs. > > The people who are exploiting her mental illness are the scum on the alt-right who are feeding her delusions, and making her think that her mental illness is normal and right. That’s exactly the takeaway I have from this story: there’s a major industry now dedicated to horrific conspiracy theories, and Trump is exploiting the mentally ill who are ripe for such theories, using them for votes. There is no comparative movement among Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1046 "2016-10-03T19:26:58Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > So, to be clear, one shouldn’t criticize someone’s politics simply because they’re based on delusions, that because being delusional is a sign of mental illness we should respect the politics that result from delusion? > > I’d say that’s rich, except I don’t want to be accused of wealth-shaming. No. But ridiculing the lady because of a mental illness is no different than attacking Hillary’s demeanor and voice by calling her a Harpy Queen. That phrase has led to a few members getting the vapors. Issues and policy are fair game. But it’s Trumpian to attack the person’s state of body. “Why should I listen to her? Of course she supports Hillary. Fat pigs run in packs.” How would that go over? But since it’s a Trump supporter now her body and mind are fair game for ridicule? How about this woman? [http://www.breitbart.com/milo/2016/09/30/woman-fled-muslim-marriage-slams-defenders-muslim-immigration/](http://www.breitbart.com/milo/2016/09/30/woman-fled-muslim-marriage-slams-defenders-muslim-immigration/) What line of body shaming could we use to discredit her? I know it’s an evil source. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1047 "2016-10-03T19:29:00Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > That’s exactly the takeaway I have from this story: there’s a major industry now dedicated to horrific conspiracy theories, and Trump is exploiting the mentally ill who are ripe for such theories, using them for votes. > > There is no comparative movement among Democrats. Yes there is. The economically illiterate who continue to vote left are just as mentally impaired. Stupidity might not be technically a mental illness but it often leads to the same outcomes. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1048 "2016-10-03T19:33:16Z")
The latest poll from Florida by Quinnipiac has Clinton up by 5 in the estate. [http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/florida/](http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/florida/) In North Carolina they reported: Clinton 46 – Trump 43. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1049 "2016-10-03T19:33:44Z")
A whole bevy of polls (including the weird periodic Ipsos poll spam covering most of September) for 538 for the following update: Polls-plus ↑ 0.5% (67.1%-32.9%) Polls-only ↑ 0.4% (70.2%-29.8%) Now-cast ↑ 0.5% (77.2%-22.8%) The most significant are the following swing state polls from Quinnipiac: FL HRC +5 NC HRC +3 PA HRC +4 OH DJT +5 Weird that PA and OH are so far apart, but overall very good news for Hillary. I think FL alone seals it for her if the results hold up. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1050 "2016-10-03T19:34:55Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > No. But ridiculing the lady because of a mental illness is no different than attacking Hillary’s demeanor and voice by calling her a Harpy Queen. That phrase has led to a few members getting the vapors. What mental illness? She hates Obama with a passion shared by many on the right. Are they all mentally ill? What reason other than mental illness would explain favoring a Trump presidency over Clinton? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1051 "2016-10-03T19:39:04Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > How is she different than any other Trump voter? Rudy and Christie are just as deranged. (or are pretending to be) I do not believe it possible that 50 million Americans have the same level of psychological problems as the lady described in the article. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1052 "2016-10-03T19:40:10Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > No. But ridiculing the lady because of a mental illness is no different than attacking Hillary’s demeanor and voice by calling her a Harpy Queen. That phrase has led to a few members getting the vapors. Uh, they’re entirely different. First, the woman in that article is not being ridiculed, she’s being profiled. Sure, she’s being profiled for a reason: her story demonstrates how the alt right is exploiting people prone to delusions, and also shows how poisonous alt-right rhetoric can make sense to someone in an economically downtrodden demographic. But that’s not ridicule. Second, her delusions speak directly to her political competence. That’s completely the opposite of criticizing Clinton using misogynist language–to suggest otherwise is to suggest that women and the delusional are equally bad at judging reality. Is that where you want to go? > [@](#): > > But since it’s a Trump supporter now her body and mind are fair game for ridicule? Your reductivist approach–to suggest that mental illness is simply physical–leads to absurd results. If mental illness is physical, so is mental health, which means that you can’t criticize any views for fear of engaging in physical shaming. You called the reporter’s report shady–but that report came from the reporter’s physical brain. Is your own accusation physical shaming? It’s an absurd tack, and I wonder if you know that and are simply trying out some rhetorical judo. It doesn’t work :). > [@octopus](#): > > Yes there is. The economically illiterate who continue to vote left are just as mentally impaired. Stupidity might not be technically a mental illness but it often leads to the same outcomes. Uh, no, dude. Someone who disagrees with you on economic theory is not the same as someone who thinks that Michelle Obama is a man and that Barack Obama is gay and that their kids are kidnapped and that Barack should be executed and the White House fumigated. Your attempts at drawing these equivalencies are ridiculous. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1053 "2016-10-03T19:42:40Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I do not believe it possible that 50 million Americans have the same level of psychological problems as the lady described in the article. I find it hard to believe as well, but I haven’t heard from one Trump voter who says anything more rational than this woman. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1054 "2016-10-03T19:52:01Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > I find it hard to believe as well, but I haven’t heard from one Trump voter who says anything more rational than this woman. Well, that’s not fair either. There are plenty of Republicans who dislike Trump immensely but want a conservative Supreme Court, for example, and there are other Trump supporters, even on this forum, who aren’t as completely delusional as this woman is and who don’t buy the conspiracy theories. The problem is that Trump encourages the conspiracy theories with nods and winks. The alt-right plays them up. Despite octopus’s pitiful tu quoques, there’s nothing similar happening on the left–it’d be as if the Democratic candidate for office was nodding and winking at Farrakhan’s craziness, which just doesn’t happen. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1055 "2016-10-03T19:55:33Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Well, that’s not fair either. There are plenty of Republicans who dislike Trump immensely but want a conservative Supreme Court, for example, and there are other Trump supporters, even on this forum, who aren’t as completely delusional as this woman is and who don’t buy the conspiracy theories. > > The problem is that Trump encourages the conspiracy theories with nods and winks. The alt-right plays them up. Despite octopus’s pitiful tu quoques, there’s nothing similar happening on the left–it’d be as if the Democratic candidate for office was nodding and winking at Farrakhan’s craziness, which just doesn’t happen. But they have no way of knowing what kind of Supreme Court they would get with Trump, do they? He has no core values and is not really a conservative. And, throwing the country to the dogs for a _chance_ of a more conservative Supreme Court certainly resembles mental illness. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1056 "2016-10-03T20:01:48Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > But they have no way of knowing what kind of Supreme Court they would get with Trump, do they? He has no core values and is not really a conservative. And, throwing the country to the dogs for a _chance_ of a more conservative Supreme Court certainly resembles mental illness. It’s a gamble, for sure, in both directions, and one I disagree with strenuously. But if we’re talking clearly and not with beer-at-the-bar hyperbole, there’s no equivalence between making very foolish political gambles and thinking the president is a gay Muslim kidnapper married to a transgender man. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1057 "2016-10-03T20:16:27Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Yes there is. The economically illiterate who continue to vote left are just as mentally impaired. Stupidity might not be technically a mental illness but it often leads to the same outcomes. No. Economically illiterate does not mean "disagrees with \*\*octopus’ \*\*theories of how the poor are “Welfare Queens”. ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1058 "2016-10-03T20:22:19Z")
> [@](#): > > That’s exactly the takeaway I have from this story: there’s a major industry now dedicated to horrific conspiracy theories, and Trump is exploiting the mentally ill who are ripe for such theories, using them for votes. Just want to reiterate that people don’t have to be mentally ill to believe conspiracy theories (not speaking of this woman, specifically). And once someone believes two or three, they are more likely to believe lots more (especially those that back up their POVs on who the good and bad guys are). Especially as they frequent message boards to discuss their conspiracy and are exposed to more. Really, echo-chambers are so easy to obtain online nowadays - no matter what your belief. Sure, there are the “easy” conspiracy theories. Otherwise rational people believe just this one don’t go down the rabbithole. I’d say JKF assassination and moon-landing fits in here. Those being older events now also makes them “safer.” But once you get to the more recent ones, especially those targeted against a specific group, they get more domino-like. You believe Clinton murdered Foster (I have relatives who do)…then you believe the Clintons did lots of other conspiracy things, which leads to believing such theories about other Democrats. Or at least Democratic presidents like Obama. Or having GMO theories leads to anti-vaxx conspiracies and to “natural cures that doctors - yes, all of them - are hiding from us.” This goes hand-in-hand with collaborative conspiracies between the government and Big Pharma to sterilize/mind-control/something else the populous. Chem trails play in well, too. **I’m not saying mental illness isn’t over-represented in conspiracy theorists** , but it’s not necessarily present. Look at the percentage who still don’t believe Obama’s birth certificate is real, and believe multiple parties are conspiring to cover it up. Someone I know has a co-worker who bought the “anti-cough device” thing (at least, I think that’s what she thought the device was). Doesn’t mean she’s mentally ill. Just because someone believes things that sound insane to you, that seem to have no basis in reality, doesn’t mean they’re actually mentally ill. Some people just believe one or two such things. Sometimes they’re religious sorts of things (even if you think they’re wrong, the ones you grow up with often seem “saner” or “more reasonable,” just from familiarity). But sometimes, they start believing more and more. Normal people can listen to Art Bell (still on air or not these days?) and some of them will start to think “maybe.” Get chain emails and they’ll believe it, if it attacks the candidate/party they dislike - won’t even check to verify. And those that are raised with it from their parents will often believe it for a little while into adulthood, at least. Interestingly, you’ll find a number of people who believed numerous conspiracy theories when younger only to realize they were built on sand and made no sense. Backfire effect and one’s identity being tied up in the belief mean that doesn’t happen as often as it should, though. > [@](#): > > The problem is that Trump encourages the conspiracy theories with nods and winks. The alt-right plays them up. Despite octopus’s pitiful tu quoques, there’s nothing similar happening on the left–it’d be as if the Democratic candidate for office was nodding and winking at Farrakhan’s craziness, which just doesn’t happen. I’d mostly agree with this. The fringe on the left mostly stays fringe. Anti-vaxx and anti-GMO despite evidence are the two that really bug me, though they occur on the right, too. Anti-vaxx seems to have especially grown there since Gardasil came out. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1059 "2016-10-03T20:28:37Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > That’s pretty shady. Mental illness shouldn’t be ridiculed. Body shaming is not cool and the brain is an organ and she can’t help having the one she has. I’m sure Hillary has plenty of sub 100 IQ people voting for her. The whole of the 47%'ers that the dems have locked up can’t be all potential rocket scientists. Interesting take on political discourse. Hillary’s supporters should be condemned: they’re stupid, freeloaders, ignorant of trickle-down economics. (And “some” I suppose are good people!) It is wrong, however, to accuse Trump supporters of faulty cognition. That’s picking on the mentally ill! ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1060 "2016-10-03T20:42:45Z")
> [@Tzigone](#): > > Just want to reiterate that people don’t have to be mentally ill to believe conspiracy theories (not speaking of this woman, specifically). Absolutely agree, and I hope I didn’t say otherwise (to the extent I did, I retract it). Instead I’m saying that certain sorts of mental illness render their victims more prone to believing horrifying conspiracies, and the alt right preys on such victims. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1061 "2016-10-03T21:15:53Z")
Having been in telephone book delivery and working with very poor people much of my life, I can safely say the Washington Post could have easily made their argument, complete with crazy conspiracy beliefs, without choosing a person who was recently in the hospital for mental issues. Just go next door. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=52) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=54)