# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 54
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1062 "2016-10-03T21:20:15Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > Congratulations to Sec Clinton. Coming up to 60% from the downside sure feels a lot better than coming down to 60% from the upside. I really hope I get to see how 70% feels. [Boom shakalaka!](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo) ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1063 "2016-10-03T21:22:23Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Having been in telephone book delivery and working with very poor people much of my life, I can safely say the Washington Post could have easily made their argument, complete with crazy conspiracy beliefs, without choosing a person who was recently in the hospital for mental issues. Just go next door. Her “mental issues” were simply typical Trump rantings. She is the crazy voter next door, nothing more or less. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1064 "2016-10-03T21:23:13Z")
Back on the topic of 538: Hillary’s up above 70% in the Polls Only with the latest CNN national poll putting her +5 (+6 Silverated). Now-Cast is 78%. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1065 "2016-10-03T21:35:02Z")
C’mon Ohio! You can do it! ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1066 "2016-10-03T21:38:50Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Her “mental issues” were simply typical Trump rantings. She is the crazy voter next door, nothing more or less. Well, “Trump rantings” that have one confined to hospitalization are not usually “typical”, I would argue. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1067 "2016-10-03T21:42:58Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Back on the topic of 538: Hillary’s up above 70% in the Polls Only with the latest CNN national poll putting her +5 (+6 Silverated). Now-Cast is 78%. More important, Florida and North Carolina are both blue. If Clinton carries Florida and North Carolina on election night, I’m betting they call the election for her by 11 Eastern. I seem to remember them calling it for Obama around 9 Pacific back in 2008. She could beat that with FL and NC on her side. ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1068 "2016-10-03T21:44:03Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Absolutely agree, and I hope I didn’t say otherwise (to the extent I did, I retract it). Instead I’m saying that certain sorts of mental illness render their victims more prone to believing horrifying conspiracies, and the alt right preys on such victims. No, you specifically said mentally ill as a subset prone to falling for conspiracy theories, not that all (or even the majority) of such theorists are mentally ill. Didn’t mean to imply otherwise. I do agree certain segments on the right (“alt right” is still a relatively new term for me, so I’m unsure of the actual group it applies to or how “alt” they have to be) perpetuates conspiracy theories, but I’m unsure how much of that is intentionally preying on mentally ill v. preying on anyone who’ll believe (and if they happen to be mentally ill, oh well) v. general “it gets eyes/ears/advertising dollars” v. those perpetuating the ideas actually, sincerely, believing what they say. Certainly all of them don’t, but I expect some of them do. It’s all a mixture, I’m sure, but I’m completely unsure on the percentages. I guess - what percentage of GOP voters or state-or-higher-level officials back the birther movement v. what percentage Democratic back the truther movement. Or do you think that’s an unfair comparison? ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1069 "2016-10-03T22:25:02Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > More important, Florida and North Carolina are both blue. If Clinton carries Florida and North Carolina on election night, I’m betting they call the election for her by 11 Eastern. > I seem to remember them calling it for Obama around 9 Pacific back in 2008. She could beat that with FL and NC on her side. If I recall correctly, they called it immediately after the polls closed on the west coast, and they could call California, Oregon, and Washington for Obama. That was just a minute past 8 pm Pacific time. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2016, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1070 "2016-10-03T23:28:37Z")
Latest 538 update: CBS News has Hills up 4 nationally, which pushes the P-O up to 71.7. More importantly, it pushes Michigan and Minnesota out of toss-up territory with just over 80% chance for Clinton. Next up…Maine! Come on, Maine! And Florida is creeping bluer and bluer. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1071 "2016-10-04T02:39:42Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Latest 538 update: CBS News has Hills up 4 nationally, which pushes the P-O up to 71.7. More importantly, it pushes Michigan and Minnesota out of toss-up territory with just over 80% chance for Clinton. Next up…Maine! Come on, Maine! > > And Florida is creeping bluer and bluer. Hopefully the latest batch of bad news will put Trump deeper in the hole. He realistically can’t recover if he goes back into the low 40s again. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1072 "2016-10-04T13:48:24Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Having been in telephone book delivery and working with very poor people much of my life, I can safely say the Washington Post could have easily made their argument, complete with crazy conspiracy beliefs, without choosing a person who was recently in the hospital for mental issues. Just go next door. I would point out that 538 just today has an article on white suburban women and how they vote, and they found a woman who’s voting Trump who has not recently been in ht eloony bin and, aside from voting for the worst Presidential candidate in the history of the United States, appears to have her shit together. There have been many, many, many, many, many articles in many publications discussing Trump voters showing examples of Trump voters who are able to run their lives, hold steady jobs, raise families, put their clothes on outside out and keep their cars on the right side of the road when they drive to Kroger’s. [QUOTE=Morgenstern] More important, Florida and North Carolina are both blue. If Clinton carries Florida and North Carolina on election night, I’m betting they call the election for her by 11 Eastern. [/QUOTE] Well, let’s be honest here; the 538 map doesn’t have a color for “toss up,” it has to assign a color. Florida, Ohio and NC are tossups. There is no substantive difference, on October 4, between 55% and 50%. The Princeton map is a bit more visually true in that is simply greys out any state that’s a tossup; they have more grey than they probably should (Virginia is grey, despite being pretty heavily Democrat/) 538’s map suggests a level of confidence that is not merited in the case of at least eight states. If Trump shifts the polls three points there’d be red all over that map. On Election Night, if they actually called Florida and NC for Clinton, the election should be called for Clinton, instantly, at that point. There is no realistic scenario in which Trump loses those states but wins the election. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1073 "2016-10-04T13:58:15Z")
Not sure what you meant there but Princeton has Virginia dark blue and Real Clear has it light blue. Maybe you meant Real Clear has Pennsylvania grey when it seems to be polling light blue at least? ---
**Author:** ![Count\_Blucher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c5a1d2/32.png) [@Count\_Blucher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Count_Blucher)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1074 "2016-10-04T14:04:14Z")
> [@skdo23](#): > > [Boom shakalaka!](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo) As I’m looking at this (10AM), it shows chance of winning: Hillary 72.4% Trump 27.6% Dear Bill Maher: Sure, its not “50 Points”, but will it do? Can it get a mention? Because if you want mints on your pillow too, that’s HBO, not us. - 'Merica ---
**Author:** ![Theodore\_Striker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/74df32/32.png) [@Theodore\_Striker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Theodore_Striker)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1075 "2016-10-04T14:25:39Z")
Ohio may still be a tough get, simply because there is not a Democrat other than Hillary (and she’s still a hold your nose candidate to many) that is energizing voters here. Portman, who is about as bland as life gets, is sticking it to Strickland (is he even campaigning?), and beyond the urban areas, Ohio is pretty red to begin with. Trump’s appeal to the unskilled and unemployed/ underemployed factory worker/ former factory worker, is playing well in cities like Hamilton, Middletown, Moraine, etc, where outsourcing of manufacturing jobs, and the rising numbers of Hispanics is a concern for people. Unfortunately, Ohio is pockmarked with these kinds of towns still, and since the union presence is dwindling, Dems can’t count on the backing of these people. I’ll admit, I was a bit ashamed of my fellow Ohioans when the last poll came out this week showing Trump ahead here. ---
**Author:** ![BlueOhio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/439d5e/32.png) [@BlueOhio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlueOhio)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1076 "2016-10-04T14:35:15Z")
Portman picked the right year to be boring and bland. It seems like a blessing now. ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1077 "2016-10-04T16:34:53Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > I seem to remember them calling it for Obama around 9 Pacific back in 2008. She could beat that with FL and NC on her side. I believe “they” specifically waited for the west coast polls to close at 9pm (so as not to influence) and were instant to call at 9 what was clear earlier; so don’t expect it before that. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1078 "2016-10-04T17:01:32Z")
In the 538 Nowcast, Clinton has moved above 80% (80.3 ; 19.7) Ohio has turned blue in the nowcast (51.6 ; 48.4) Florida is moving further towards Clinton in the nowcast (67.6 ; 32.4) ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1079 "2016-10-04T20:27:56Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > In the 538 Nowcast, Clinton has moved above 80% (80.3 ; 19.7) > > Ohio has turned blue in the nowcast (51.6 ; 48.4) > > Florida is moving further towards Clinton in the nowcast (67.6 ; 32.4) Polls Only is at 73%. Just after the first debate, I was hoping it would hit 75% by Election Day eve! This is good. I’m now raising my hopes to…hmmm…let’s go with 88%. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1080 "2016-10-04T20:32:12Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Polls Only is at 73%. Just after the first debate, I was hoping it would hit 75% by Election Day eve! This is good. I’m now raising my hopes to…hmmm…let’s go with 88%. 75? Shit, I’ve said if it’s not 92% or higher by Election Day Eve, I’m not sleeping that night. And even with all the good news of late, there’s a very good chance I’m not sleeping that night. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1081 "2016-10-04T20:36:57Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > 75? Shit, I’ve said if it’s not 92% or higher by Election Day Eve, I’m not sleeping that night. And even with all the good news of late, there’s a very good chance I’m not sleeping that night. For sure. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=53) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=55)