# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 55
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1082 "2016-10-04T20:53:01Z")
Polls-plus for NC is at 49.7%. C’mon, NC, we can do it! As for me, Election Day is a teacher work day, which is fine. I’m trying to figure out if I should take the day after as a personal day, or should I try to go in to teach kids on four hours of sleep? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1083 "2016-10-04T20:54:29Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Polls-plus for NC is at 49.7%. C’mon, NC, we can do it! > > As for me, Election Day is a teacher work day, which is fine. I’m trying to figure out if I should take the day after as a personal day, or should I try to go in to teach kids on four hours of sleep? I’m going into work. I wouldn’t miss the reactions of the crusty old baby boomers in my office for anything. ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1084 "2016-10-04T21:34:39Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > C’mon Ohio! You can do it! > [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Ohio has turned blue in the nowcast (51.6 ; 48.4) OH is now [blue in polls only](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo) too! ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1085 "2016-10-04T21:47:45Z")
> [@skdo23](#): > > OH is now [blue in polls only](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo) too! Also, Iowa is moving from Trump to swing again, and Pennsylvania is pretty solid for Clinton. [Here’s my current 270towin projection map](http://www.270towin.com/maps/1lrjm) (80% chance or better for Hillary turns it blue, 60% or better for Trump turns it red, everything else is swing). NH and CO are both within 5 percentage points of moving to blue and giving Hillary the 270 she needs. That being said, we’re still more than a month out from the final horn, and if it gets too lopsided, it could cause complacency on Hillary’s side. ETA-- Also interesting: AZ is a horse fart away from moving into the swing list. It’s currently at 62.6% for Trump, and since Oct. 1, it’s moved almost 7 percentage points toward Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2016, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1086 "2016-10-04T21:59:54Z")
> [@](#): > > I’m going into work. I wouldn’t miss the reactions of the crusty old baby boomers in my office for anything. I’m considering taking the day after off so I won’t have to listen…I live in Alabama. Either way it goes, there will probably be talk I’d rather not hear. And I really don’t like to discuss politics or religion at work (though I’ve slipped on that a time or two). ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1087 "2016-10-05T00:11:16Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Polls-plus for NC is at 49.7%. C’mon, NC, we can do it! 51.1% in polls plus! Let’s do this shit! Also we look good for kicking out our spineless weasel of a governor, and our chances of getting rid of the Burr in our butts are looking better and better as well. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1088 "2016-10-05T01:04:26Z")
NC now 58.7 in polls-only, 51.1 in polls-plus, and 64.5 in Nowcast. Iowa is the next potential one to go. 45.9 in polls-only but movement there is based only on national data and whatever correlational magic 538 works with. Very little polling. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1089 "2016-10-05T03:07:46Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > 75? Shit, I’ve said if it’s not 92% or higher by Election Day Eve, I’m not sleeping that night. And even with all the good news of late, there’s a very good chance I’m not sleeping that night. Anybody else heard a rumor about how Canada is moving military units and Mounties to patrol the border that night? Asking for a friend… ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1090 "2016-10-05T12:43:40Z")
Latest from 538: Polls-plus ↑ 0.6% (71.4%-28.6%) Polls-only ↑ 0.3% (75.0%-25.0%) Now-cast 0.0% (81.4%-18.6%) Due to one of those Google state poll bombs (which always include some weird results – in this case, HRC being ahead in Kansas and Indiana and tied in Kentucky). ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1091 "2016-10-05T13:03:22Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Due to one of those Google state poll bombs (which always include some weird results – in this case, HRC being ahead in Kansas and Indiana and tied in Kentucky). The Google thing has shown her ahead in Kansas every time. Clearly there are some issues with their approach. It also shows her as way ahead in Alaska. And Trump as way ahead in North Carolina. So I’d take it with a pound of salt. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1092 "2016-10-05T14:49:29Z")
Latest: Polls-plus ↑ 0.7% (71.9%-28.1%) Polls-only ↑ 0.4% (75.4%-24.6%) Now-cast ↑ 0.5% (82.3%-17.7%) All due to a _very_ solid (HRC +9!) national poll from an “A” rated pollster. ---
**Author:** ![Raygun99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1093 "2016-10-05T16:09:58Z")
On calling North Carolina the night of the election - I seem to recall that NC has been a bit of a late call for the networks the last couple of elections, not just because it was a close race both times (natch), but also that a number of the polling places in cities seemed to be quite pokey in getting their counts in. ---
**Author:** ![oft\_wears\_hats](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7993a0/32.png) [@oft\_wears\_hats](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/oft_wears_hats)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1094 "2016-10-05T17:08:30Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Latest: > > Polls-plus ↑ 0.7% (71.9%-28.1%) > Polls-only ↑ 0.4% (75.4%-24.6%) > Now-cast ↑ 0.5% (82.3%-17.7%) > > All due to a _very_ solid (HRC +9!) national poll from an “A” rated pollster. All right! Clinton cracked 70% on Polls-plus again! Granted, she was just below 80% when Trump was at his lowest point after the Khan fiasco. Does the Polls-plus model become more accurate as we approach Election Day? ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1095 "2016-10-05T17:43:30Z")
> [@oft\_wears\_hats](#): > > Does the Polls-plus model become more accurate as we approach Election Day? If I understand correctly, it converges with the other two as we approach Election Day. “Now-cast” is a weighted average of polls. “Polls” adds a model accounting for the fact that the polls are now and not on Election Day. “Polls Plus” adds a model accounting for economic conditions and other non-poll models. I don’t think there’s an easy way to evaluate accuracy. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1096 "2016-10-05T17:43:47Z")
Latest, due to a good (HRC +2) OH poll: Polls-plus 0.0% (71.7%-28.2%) Polls-only ↑ 0.6% (75.5%-24.5%) Now-cast ↑ 0.5% (81.9%-18.1%) ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1097 "2016-10-05T17:59:35Z")
Here’s a nice little summary of how state-to-state correlation works, from [538](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-north-carolina-is-becoming-a-backstop-for-clinton/). > [@Nate Silver](#): > > To back up for a moment, one of the most important features of a presidential forecast is how it handles correlations between states. Take a hypothetical example of an election between the candidates Kang and Kodos, in which Kang has 268 electoral votes locked up, Kodos has 263, and it all comes down to Rhode Island and Delaware. Kodos must win both Rhode Island and Delaware in order to be elected president. If Kodos’s chances are 50 percent in each state, then what are his chances overall? > > The answer is … you can’t say yet, because I haven’t told you how Delaware and Rhode Island are correlated. There are three main possibilities: > 1.If the vote in Rhode Island is completely independent from the vote in Delaware, Kodos needs to win the equivalent of two coin flips, and his chances are 25 percent. > 2.If they always vote together — as goes Rhode Island, so goes Delaware — Kodos will either win both states or lose both, and so his chances are 50 percent. > 3.And if they’re perfectly anticorrelated — Rhode Island hates Delaware’s guts, and always votes the opposite of Delaware just to prove the point — Kodos can’t win both states and his chances are zero. > > We’ve spent a lot of time exploring this question at FiveThirtyEight. And the empirical answer is closest to No. 2, with No. 1 being the runner-up. That is, the states are positively, but not perfectly, correlated with one another. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1098 "2016-10-05T20:26:15Z")
538: [Trump is doing worse than Romney among White voters.](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-doing-worse-than-romney-did-among-white-voters/?ex_cid=538twitter) > [@](#): > > Trump has succeeded in overperforming among a certain slice of white voters, those without a college degree. But overall, the strategy isn’t working. Trump has a smaller lead among white voters than Mitt Romney did in 2012, and Trump’s margin seems to be falling from where it was when the general election began. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1099 "2016-10-05T20:28:32Z")
538 also updated their Swing-o-matic widget, and added gender for white voters. Fun to play with! ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1100 "2016-10-05T20:32:07Z")
While we’re all enjoying the Nate roller-coaster as it goes up again, I’ll add that there is now visible whitespace between Sam Wang’s shaded 95% EV confidence interval and a Trump win. ---
**Author:** ![SaharaTea](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@SaharaTea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SaharaTea)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2016, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1101 "2016-10-05T23:56:32Z")
What’s going on with the NH Senate forecast? Polls-only is the reverse of Polls-plus. There seems to be a lot of discrepancy in the polls there. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=54) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=56)