# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 58
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 6:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1142 "2016-10-08T06:22:06Z")
So the man is a pig. Many presidents were. That said, is it too early to start talking about 2020? ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1143 "2016-10-08T06:44:04Z")
Not according to Mike Pence. Didn’t you see the debate? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 6:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1144 "2016-10-08T06:45:14Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > So the man is a pig. Many presidents were. > > That said, is it too early to start talking about 2020? Maybe you are right, but he is the first to run for POTUS to have audio and video turn up with him talking about grabbing a woman by her pussy. As a pick up technique no less. In my book that would make him an astounding idiot as well as a pig. As for 2020, all I will say is I think this episode is enough to say Pence has little more than a zero chance of getting the GOP nod. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 6:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1145 "2016-10-08T06:55:06Z")
nm ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 7:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1146 "2016-10-08T07:46:35Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Maybe you are right, but he is the first to run for POTUS to have audio and video turn up with him talking about grabbing a woman by her pussy. As a pick up technique no less. In my book that would make him an astounding idiot as well as a pig. > > As for 2020, all I will say is I think this episode is enough to say Pence has little more than a zero chance of getting the GOP nod. People say stupid stuff. Did he know he was being recorded? Anyways, it was crass no doubt. But anyone remember Jesse Jackson wanting to castrate our current president? He ran for president. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 10:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1147 "2016-10-08T10:03:57Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > People say stupid stuff. Did he know he was being recorded? Anyways, it was crass no doubt. But anyone remember Jesse Jackson wanting to castrate our current president? He ran for president. If Jackson had been running at that time, it would have been very damaging to him politically. As for Trump, it’s not the crassness that exacerbates this, it’s the talk of groping/sexual assault. That’s more than just lewd sex talk. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 10:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1148 "2016-10-08T10:37:35Z")
> [@Merneith](#): > > As it happens, Wang has an article today in the American Prospect, talking about the lack of volatility in the race. > > [The Hardened Divide in American Politics - The American Prospect](http://prospect.org/article/hardened-divide-american-politics-0) > > His conclusion is that Trump’s support, despite all very very frighting, thunderstorms and lightning, is functionally identical to the sort of support that Romney received, thanks to the entrenched hyper-partisan nature of today’s political scene. I understand Wang’s point but he’s looking purely at the numbers at not enough at what is behind them. If Donald Trump had managed to somehow prepare better for the debate, if Hillary had slipped up and made a gaffe, then pundits aren’t putting as much pressure on Trump and Trump isn’t flipping out over Alicia Machado. The Times bombshell on Trump’s taxes would move polls but maybe not as much in the overall grand scheme of things. Undoubtedly, this latest bombshell will move polls even more against Trump. But how much more is unclear. Can I or anyone prove any of this? No, because we can’t prove hypotheticals. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 10:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1149 "2016-10-08T10:40:15Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > People say stupid stuff. Did he know he was being recorded? Anyways, it was crass no doubt. But anyone remember Jesse Jackson wanting to castrate our current president? He ran for president. That’s one off-the-cuff comment – Donald went on and on in graphic detail, describing what he does with women. This also adds credence to claims that he sexually harasses women, which is a charge that others have made. He basically admits on the mic that he gropes women. **This is a criminal act – people get put on sex offender registries for such behavior.** ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1150 "2016-10-08T12:14:35Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I understand Wang’s point but he’s looking purely at the numbers at not enough at what is behind them. If … Speculations about what is behind them are the realm of pundits and talking heads. Often those speculations jam the numbers into fitting our hypotheses and allow a bunch of what-ifs. Correct that he looks at the numbers and what the numbers say. It leads to good predictions. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1151 "2016-10-08T13:13:44Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > People say stupid stuff. Did he know he was being recorded? Anyways, it was crass no doubt. But anyone remember Jesse Jackson wanting to castrate our current president? He ran for president. Jackson wanted to castrate Barack Obama in 1988? Holy shit! :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1152 "2016-10-08T13:25:06Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > People say stupid stuff. Did he know he was being recorded? Anyways, it was crass no doubt. But anyone remember Jesse Jackson wanting to castrate our current president? He ran for president. Lemme see if I can help you find some differences: 1. Did Jackson try to run for president after these comments came to question? 2. Was Jackson expressing frustration in a disgusting obviously metaphorical sense, or was he bragging about how easy it was for him to commit a crime? 3. Did he issue a sincere apology, or immediately launch into an attack on a rival? There are more differences, but if you can answer these questions honestly, that should be plenty for you to sheepishly retract that comparison. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1153 "2016-10-08T13:25:29Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > People say stupid stuff. Did he know he was being recorded? Anyways, it was crass no doubt. But anyone remember Jesse Jackson wanting to castrate our current president? He ran for president. Jesse Jackson wanted to metaphorically castrate the president. Donald trump is talking about literally grabbing women by the genitalia. The equivalence is false. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1154 "2016-10-08T13:36:53Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Speculations about what is behind them are the realm of pundits and talking heads. Often those speculations jam the numbers into fitting our hypotheses and allow a bunch of what-ifs. Correct that he looks at the numbers and what the numbers say. It leads to good predictions. And you just described why punditry is a good thing. It’s why Silver and 538, who do both, should not be treated the way Wang treats them. ---
**Author:** ![Count\_Blucher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c5a1d2/32.png) [@Count\_Blucher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Count_Blucher)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1155 "2016-10-08T13:38:36Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > People say stupid stuff. Did he know he was being recorded? Anyways, it was crass no doubt. Yes, but that’s the thing: When you Double-Down on Stupid, very often You Lose. You’d think that after 40 years in the casino industry and with over $1 Billion LOST on his AC investment, he’d KNOW this by now. This isn’t a one-time thing. This is a permanent character flaw rendering him unfit for office. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1156 "2016-10-08T22:04:41Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > And you just described why punditry is a good thing. It’s why Silver and 538, who do both, should not be treated the way Wang treats them. The irony being of course that Silver made his name proving the exact opposite, that punditry leads to bad predictions. His big error this year being when he fell into it himself, believing his self-punditry about Trump never going to the nominee even though the numbers (and thus Wang) said otherwise. But the story the numbers tell does not fill enough column space nor drive enough clicks. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1157 "2016-10-08T22:15:42Z")
Last Alaska poll, before the latest “news” was Trump +3. Nowcast still +5 but odds of a Trump win there less than in GA: under 70%. Alaska! A state that went Romney by 14 points. It is possible that freakin’ _Alaska_ will be in play. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1158 "2016-10-08T22:25:26Z")
Doubling back to Wang vs Silver - assume for the sake of discussion that the Trumptanic continues its repetitive crashing into the iceberg. It may give a chance for Silver to redeem himself in the other direction. True Wang called this as solidly for Clinton from early early on and never wavered all that much (in contrast to Silver’s huge uncertainty range and anchoring it to a close election) but Wang has also stated that a blowout in the other direction is unlikely, while Silver has also said that Clinton plus 10 would not shock him any more than a Trump modest win would, that the uncertainty was that high. A Clinton win by +10 would be more consistent with Silver’s view than Wang’s. I will happily give Silver due props if that occurs! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1159 "2016-10-08T22:42:54Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Maybe you are right, but he is the first to run for POTUS to have audio and video turn up with him talking about grabbing a woman by her pussy. As a pick up technique no less. In my book that would make him an astounding idiot as well as a pig. When this story broke I was immediately reminded of dialogue in the 2005 movie _The 40-Year-Old Virgin_, in which the protagonist is trying to impress his buddies with his (non-existent) sexual experience: > [@](#): > > Andy Stitzer: You know how when you grab a woman’s breast… it feels like… a bag of sand. > David: What? I’m not saying I don’t believe Trump has groped women against their wishes–committing sexual assault. There’s testimony out there already that he has, and it’s likely there will be more. I’m saying that he’s probably got no idea of what to say about it that will impress other men, because his whole life he’s been doing it wrong–who is going to correct Richie Rich? So he tells Billy Bush that he can do _anything_ to women due to being “a star,” including “grab them by the pussy.” And Trump had no idea that this _wouldn’t_ sound impressive, because he’s lived in the rich-guy bubble all his life. No one is going to tell him that grabbing women by the pussy isn’t a cool and studly action. And, of course, no one is going to tell him that he’s coming close to confessing to criminal acts–all that’s missing is the specifics of any instance in which he’s done what he’s bragging of. But apropos this thread: as much as we hoped to see the effects of Debate One teased out as an individual factor in the polling–how much more do we want to see the effect of this? ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1160 "2016-10-08T23:14:50Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Last Alaska poll, before the latest “news” was Trump +3. Nowcast still +5 but odds of a Trump win there less than in GA: under 70%. Alaska! A state that went Romney by 14 points. > > It is possible that freakin’ _Alaska_ will be in play. Georgia is the only currently red state on 538 (polls only) in which Clinton has ever been ahead at any point. She was at around a 75% probability of a win at her high point last August. So Georgia is potentially volatile enough to flip. Although Alaska may be higher at the moment Clinton has never led there. I don’t think it’s volatile enough to flip. (But I’ll keep my fingers crossed.:)) ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2016, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1161 "2016-10-08T23:22:49Z")
I’m rather curious about Utah again. Not so much Clinton winning it outright, but I wonder if McMullin can spoiler it into her camp ( or even, more remotely, take it himself ). The Mormon revulsion has certainly been more consistently strong than in the rest of the GOP ( where it has been bad enough for Trump ). Might still be a lonnngggg long-shot. But I wonder if it is edging back into the realm of possibility again after this weekend. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=57) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=59)