# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 59
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1162 "2016-10-09T00:29:57Z")
[https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/784852170738896896](https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/784852170738896896) “In five key races that determine whether Democrats retake the Senate, they are running women: NV, PA, NH, NC, PA. So yes, it’s here.” (“It” referring to “year of the woman” question asked of Sam Wang) ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1163 "2016-10-09T00:33:29Z")
Tic tacs are the [second candy company](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/08/1579492/-Things-we-never-thought-we-d-say-a-second-candy-has-come-forward-to-disavow-Donald-Trump) to have to distance themselves from Trump. I haven’t looked it up, but that’s probably a first. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1164 "2016-10-09T02:53:05Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Lemme see if I can help you find some differences: > > 1. Did Jackson try to run for president after these comments came to question? > 2. Was Jackson expressing frustration in a disgusting obviously metaphorical sense, or was he bragging about how easy it was for him to commit a crime? > 3. Did he issue a sincere apology, or immediately launch into an attack on a rival? > > There are more differences, but if you can answer these questions honestly, that should be plenty for you to sheepishly retract that comparison. Wait. Trump literally grabs unsuspecting women by the pussy? Why isn’t he in jail? Can you grab a pussy? My wife’s doesn’t have a handle. ---
**Author:** ![Tangent](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tangent/32/3098_2.png) [@Tangent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tangent)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1165 "2016-10-09T03:04:53Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Can you grab a pussy? My wife’s doesn’t have a handle. Well, neither do bowling balls. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1166 "2016-10-09T03:31:18Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Wait. Trump literally grabs unsuspecting women by the pussy? So he says. > [@](#): > > Why isn’t he in jail? He’s rich and pays off witnesses, most likely. > [@](#): > > Can you grab a pussy? My wife’s doesn’t have a handle. Glad you’re willing to talk about your wife’s pussy here. Is she glad? ---
**Author:** ![Skinnybones\_Lampshade](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skinnybones_lampshade/32/2872_2.png) [@Skinnybones\_Lampshade](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skinnybones_Lampshade)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1167 "2016-10-09T03:45:35Z")
What I don’t get is why the NowCast is slightly, albeit very slightly, more favourable to Trump than it was this morning, even though it’s apparently been updated every few hours. Iowa, for example, shows a small upturn of support for him. I had anticipated a fairly significant downturn reflected for him by now. ---
**Author:** ![yellowjacketcoder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/4bbf92/32.png) [@yellowjacketcoder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yellowjacketcoder)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1168 "2016-10-09T04:18:55Z")
> [@Skinnybones\_Lampshade](#): > > What I don’t get is why the NowCast is slightly, albeit very slightly, more favourable to Trump than it was this morning, even though it’s apparently been updated every few hours. Iowa, for example, shows a small upturn of support for him. > > I had anticipated a fairly significant downturn reflected for him by now. Polls take a bit of time to conduct. Most of them last several days, so a news event that occurred the last day of the poll will not be reflected by said poll. Hillary got a huge swing after the first debate, but it wasn’t really apparently in the polls for 3-4 more days. We’d need at least that much time to see the effects of the “hot mike” video, which is going to get conflated with the debate just two days later. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1169 "2016-10-09T04:30:58Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Wait. Trump literally grabs unsuspecting women by the pussy? Why isn’t he in jail? Can you grab a pussy? My wife’s doesn’t have a handle. You just can’t find it, is all. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1170 "2016-10-09T05:02:03Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > So he says. > He’s rich and pays off witnesses, most likely. > Glad you’re willing to talk about your wife’s pussy here. Is she glad? It’s an anonymous forum. Why would she care and how would she know? I don’t need her permission to write about things that can never embarrass her. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1171 "2016-10-09T05:34:30Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Wait. Trump literally grabs unsuspecting women by the pussy? That’s what he told Billy Bush. His own words. Maybe he was lying, but he was certainly bragging that’s something he did. > [@](#): > > Why isn’t he in jail? Lots of money and non-disclosure agreements, most likely. > [@](#): > > Can you grab a pussy? I can, yes, and have many times. My partners consented to it in advance. > [@](#): > > My wife’s doesn’t have a handle. Why would you need a handle to grab something? You seriously have never put your hand on your wife’s pussy? She must be pretty frustrated. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 5:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1172 "2016-10-09T05:39:42Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Wait. Trump literally grabs unsuspecting women by the pussy? Why isn’t he in jail? Can you grab a pussy? Some random young woman versus a famous billionaire. That would go well. Either she’s lying or she consented, after all she probably had some sort of business relationship with him already and she is only complaining because she got dumped and she wants some of his money. Or do you think Trump is too moral to make any of these charges? This stuff has been out there already, but no one believed them until Trump more or less confessed on tape. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1173 "2016-10-09T05:40:45Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > Why would you need a handle to grab something? You seriously have never put your hand on your wife’s pussy? She must be pretty frustrated. In Soviet Union, pussy grab you! **sorry** ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 6:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1174 "2016-10-09T06:16:07Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > That’s what he told Billy Bush. His own words. Maybe he was lying, but he was certainly bragging that’s something he did. > > Lots of money and non-disclosure agreements, most likely. > > I can, yes, and have many times. My partners consented to it in advance. > > Why would you need a handle to grab something? You seriously have never put your hand on your wife’s pussy? She must be pretty frustrated. Well sort of like the dice thread you all know I like empiricism. So after this “scandal” made the news I knew it was time for an experiment. Most I could get before it looked like I was pressing my luck was a tug of labia. You can’t just latch on like a dog with a chew toy. I don’t know how women put up with men. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 6:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1175 "2016-10-09T06:17:37Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Some random young woman versus a famous billionaire. That would go well. Either she’s lying or she consented, after all she probably had some sort of business relationship with him already and she is only complaining because she got dumped and she wants some of his money. > Or do you think Trump is too moral to make any of these charges? > This stuff has been out there already, but no one believed them until Trump more or less confessed on tape. Yeah, Trump’s a problem. No doubt about it at this point. He’s not the biggest problem though. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 6:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1176 "2016-10-09T06:21:32Z")
> [@Tangent](#): > > Well, neither do bowling balls. HAHAHAHA!! Stealing this! Is Trumpy Wumpy Chanelling Andrew Dice Clay? That’s who it seems Like I’m Listening to, and there’s still plenty of Ford Fairlaine fans… ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [October 9, 2016, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1177 "2016-10-09T16:04:33Z")
> [@Tangent](#): > > Well, neither do bowling balls. Reminds me of [this Amy Schumer routine](http://www.cc.com/video-collections/2lnjq8/cc-stand-up-mostly-sex-stuff-clips/tc7pbt) (starting about 0:30). NSFW, obviously. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2016, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1178 "2016-10-10T15:31:03Z")
Arizona is now 50-50 in the PO forecast. But more importantly: NH just went over 80% for Hillary in PO, which means she now has 273 EVs from states that are 80% for her or higher. I breathe a little easier every day. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2016, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1179 "2016-10-10T15:37:39Z")
NM… wrong thread. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2016, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1180 "2016-10-10T15:48:15Z")
Chris Hayes, no friend of conservatives, is tweeting that people will REALLY WANT to see the latest NBC poll, to be released in 12 minutes. What a tease! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 10, 2016, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1181 "2016-10-10T16:01:21Z")
> Here it is, the latest NBC/WSJ poll: NBC/WSJ poll Clinton Trump (4-way) 46%-35% Clinton Trump (2-way) 52%-38% An 11-point lead in a 4-way race, a 14-point lead in the 2-way. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=58) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=60)