# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 62
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2016, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1222 "2016-10-11T19:33:29Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Another way to state this is to point out how Obama was sometimes most successful when he DIDN’T push hard for something – in other words, whether by accident or design, let the Republicans pretend it was their idea. Andrew Sullivan writes in the current _New York_ (page 52) that two cultural/legal issues – same-sex marriage, and legal marijuana – evolved surprisingly quickly. “Why were these two issues different from all the others? Notably, Obama never campaigned for either.” > [@CarnalK](#): > > More notable, I would think, is the fact that those two issues did not move through Congress at all. Movement on marijuana has been driven by state ballot initiatives and SSM through the courts. This. And if there were something that had gotten through Congress because Obama hadn’t pushed for it, that’s not so much a lack of Obama’s willingness to let others take credit, as the law that says conservatives must oppose everything the Dem leaders are for, updated daily. So the minute Obama advocates for something, it’s DOA in a GOP-controlled Congress. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 11, 2016, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1223 "2016-10-11T23:15:56Z")
(I’m assuming this is the “poll” thread for the rest of the election… ?) > **[Election Update: Women Are Defeating Donald Trump](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-women-are-defeating-donald-trump/)** > > Want these election updates emailed to you right when they’re published? Sign up here. A series of national polls released on Tuesday showed Hillary Clinton lea… If only women voted, Hillary would get 458 EV, Trump 80. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1224 "2016-10-12T00:05:43Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > He _is_ apparently getting 7% of the black vote on last check. Somehow. It kinda boggles the mind the figure is even that high. Why? Are minorities supposed to be a hive mind? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1225 "2016-10-12T00:11:49Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Why? Are minorities supposed to be a hive mind? No but it’s mildly surprising one in fourteen people in a given group would vote for someone who clearly despises them and wants to screw them. Of course, the majority of whites want to vote Trump, and he despises them and wants to screw them too, so maybe black people are just smarter. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1226 "2016-10-12T01:29:11Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Why? Are minorities supposed to be a hive mind? Yes. Yes, they should. As should all people. Sadly they don’t, which is why I am currently working on a bee-human hybrid in my attic. My superior bee-people will crush the world beneath the iron will of their industrious conformity! ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1227 "2016-10-12T01:33:04Z")
I want to see the tapes of Trump using racial epithets. I don’t think it’ll move his base of support and I wouldn’t be surprised to see many of his GOP supporters still play this high-wire walking act of disapproving his comments but supporting the candidate. I want to see it once and for all – the republican party finally admitting, for the record, that they accept a nominee who openly engages in using the mother of all racial epithets. It has nearly confirmed everything we already knew but this would be the ultimate proof. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1228 "2016-10-12T01:40:27Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > No but it’s mildly surprising one in fourteen people in a given group would vote for someone who clearly despises them and wants to screw them. > > Of course, the majority of whites want to vote Trump, and he despises them and wants to screw them too, so maybe black people are just smarter. Awesome post. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1229 "2016-10-12T02:43:22Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Why? Are minorities supposed to be a hive mind? No, they should have self respect and an awareness of how Trump and people like Trump have harmed them historically and continue to contemporarily. It sickens me whenever I hear or read a black person supporting Trump, and the responses they give when questioned on their support, if they even have articulable reasons, are nothing less than embarrassing. The cognitive dissonance among black Trump supporters specifically, and black Republicans in general, especially poor black Republicans, the existence of whom I simply cannot wrap my pea brain around, all in the service of being accepted by white people who will never consider them anything other than tools when they need them and garbage when they don’t, is absolutely inexplicable to me. This, what I can most generously term, Uncle Ruckus mindset as expressed by notables like Sheriff Clarke, Alan Keyes, Allen West, Mia Love, Ashley Bell, Jesse Lee Peterson, Dexter Manley, Larry Elder, Erick Rush, Angela McGlowen, and others, who make quite lucrative stipends, if not cushy lifestyles, blaming black people to white audiences for every unfortunate circumstance that befalls them, even that which they have absolutely no control over, perpetuates a perspective among certain groups of whites that blacks actually have a place, it is lower than that of whites, and that some, but too few, blacks know and accept it, and can even inculcate weak-minded blacks with a sense of deserved inferiority. It is documented that Trump attempted to ensure blacks could not rent into his Brooklyn buildings in the 1970s, which is all any self respecting black person _today_ should need to distance themselves from him. In the coming weeks, it would not surprise me if irrefutable audio or video evidence surfaces of Trump demeaning blacks verbally using racial epithets. It also would not surprise me that, even given the evidence, some blacks will continue to support him which, again, is sickening. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1230 "2016-10-12T02:59:58Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > Yes. Yes, they should. As should all people. > > Sadly they don’t, which is why I am currently working on a bee-human hybrid in my attic. My superior bee-people will crush the world beneath the iron will of their industrious conformity! I imagine that you had a tortured soliloquy before embarking on this plan, much like Hamlet. ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1231 "2016-10-12T03:11:04Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > And back up again. > > Do you follow your stock portfolio like this too? 🙂 Fair enough. It was just such a big rush for me when PO finally went back above 80% so, consequently, it was a major buzzkill when it temporarily dipped back into the high 70s. of course, thanks to last Friday, there’s no need to worry anymore.😃 ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1232 "2016-10-12T03:16:44Z")
> [@skdo23](#): > > Fair enough. It was just such a big rush for me when PO finally went back above 80% so, consequently, it was a major buzzkill when it temporarily dipped back into the high 70s. of course, thanks to last Friday, there’s no need to worry anymore.😃 Maybe you should convert the figures to, say, hexadecimal ones, so you don’t get so jubilant or despondent when they cross certain (arbitrary) thresholds. 🙂 (Well, I guess then you’d just be hyper-focused on DIFFERENT thresholds. Oh, well, it’s a universal human trait. Wanna buy this can of beer, for just $1.99?) ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 11:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1233 "2016-10-12T11:04:50Z")
I predict that Wikileaks will bring Hillary’s numbers down. Not enough to sway the election, but they’ll make the elections a little close for comfort. It also looks like a lot of republican voters want to vote for Trump and will find any excuse to do it over the longer term. That’s why I kinda suspect that the Clinton campaign or perhaps news outlets that just despise Trump (WaPo) is saving something for the final week of the campaign to curb any upward momentum swing that might happen as a result of Assange. In the short term, the republicans worry me, but I don’t necessarily see a tightening race as a bad thing in the longer term. I am convinced that Trump will eventually destroy the party. He’s a political rubber band that is starting to show signs of fatigue - a rubber band that’ll eventually snap. The longer he has stayed in the race, the deeper he has mired himself into scandal, and the uglier his campaign he has gotten. He’s probably never been more admired by American neo-fascists, but outside that circle, he is hardening perceptions of the republican party and of conservatives in general. The republicans are racing to the extreme right, and eventually, the will finally go to far. And when they do, the backlash will also be extreme, and those perceptions will remain for a long time. The republicans will be blamed for things that are, quite simply, unforgivable. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1234 "2016-10-12T11:09:45Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > No, they should have self respect and an awareness of how Trump and people like Trump have harmed them historically and continue to contemporarily. > > It sickens me whenever I hear or read a black person supporting Trump, and the responses they give when questioned on their support, if they even have articulable reasons, are nothing less than embarrassing. The cognitive dissonance among black Trump supporters specifically, and black Republicans in general, especially poor black Republicans, the existence of whom I simply cannot wrap my pea brain around, all in the service of being accepted by white people who will never consider them anything other than tools when they need them and garbage when they don’t, is absolutely inexplicable to me. > > This, what I can most generously term, Uncle Ruckus mindset as expressed by notables like Sheriff Clarke, Alan Keyes, Allen West, Mia Love, Ashley Bell, Jesse Lee Peterson, Dexter Manley, Larry Elder, Erick Rush, Angela McGlowen, and others, who make quite lucrative stipends, if not cushy lifestyles, blaming black people to white audiences for every unfortunate circumstance that befalls them, even that which they have absolutely no control over, perpetuates a perspective among certain groups of whites that blacks actually have a place, it is lower than that of whites, and that some, but too few, blacks know and accept it, and can even inculcate weak-minded blacks with a sense of deserved inferiority. > > It is documented that Trump attempted to ensure blacks could not rent into his Brooklyn buildings in the 1970s, which is all any self respecting black person _today_ should need to distance themselves from him. In the coming weeks, it would not surprise me if irrefutable audio or video evidence surfaces of Trump demeaning blacks verbally using racial epithets. It also would not surprise me that, even given the evidence, some blacks will continue to support him which, again, is sickening. I am in agreement, but I understand why some black people might somehow be convinced to support Trump. For instance, black Americans, like white Americans, were born here and some could understandably tend to feel threatened by low-wage earning immigrants. I don’t agree with those concerns but I see how some of the less educated of any race allows their mind to go there. Also just like white Americans you also have black religious conservatives – many of those who voted for proposition 8 (the infamous anti-gay marriage law in CA) were African American. And finally, one thing I have observed among all minority populations is that there are some individuals within that group who simply prefer not to be identified as such. So I get how black Americans, despite all of the evidence showing what a disaster Trump would be for them, vote for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1235 "2016-10-12T11:25:22Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I am in agreement, but I understand why some black people might somehow be convinced to support Trump. For instance, black Americans, like white Americans, were born here and some could understandably tend to feel threatened by low-wage earning immigrants. I don’t agree with those concerns but I see how some of the less educated of any race allows their mind to go there. Also just like white Americans you also have black religious conservatives – many of those who voted for proposition 8 (the infamous anti-gay marriage law in CA) were African American. And finally, one thing I have observed among all minority populations is that there are some individuals within that group who simply prefer not to be identified as such. So I get how black Americans, despite all of the evidence showing what a disaster Trump would be for them, vote for Trump. Well put. And, some of them might just be in the property development business. Seriously – I have a Mexican-American colleague who is RABIDLY pro-Trump – I mean _weak-kneed giddy_ at the mention of his name – and her stated reason is that her husband is a real estate agent, so they want to see someone in that line of work in the White House. (I think also she’s trying to distance herself from the bulk of Mexican Americans, as she’s from Mexico City’s European-descent wealthier class, it seems.) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1236 "2016-10-12T13:01:55Z")
Wow, what an update this morning: Polls-plus ↑ 3.0% (82.9%-17.1%) Polls-only ↑ 3.0% (86.5%-13.5%) Now-cast ↑ 3.3% (90.8%-9.2%) AZ now blue in PO and NC. This huge improvement (the biggest I can recall for a single update) is due to some great national polls and a monumental OH poll (HRC + 11) Right now we can say with confidence that Hillary has a mid to high single-digit lead. And a landslide looks like a more likely outcome than even a close Hillary victory. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1237 "2016-10-12T13:02:11Z")
Now-cast is now at 90.8%, with Polls-plus at 82.9%. I assume this is a result of fallout from Gropergate. Ninja’d by **iiandyiiii** 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1238 "2016-10-12T13:05:09Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Wow, what an update this morning: > > Polls-plus ↑ 3.0% (82.9%-17.1%) > Polls-only ↑ 3.0% (86.5%-13.5%) > Now-cast ↑ 3.3% (90.8%-9.2%) > > AZ now blue in PO and NC. This huge improvement (the biggest I can recall for a single update) is due to some great national polls and a monumental OH poll (HRC + 11) That’s the problem Trump faces now: Clinton’s widening the electoral map. He has more ground to defend. Trump will lean heavily on Assange and Russia to throw the election his way. And apparently there are a lot people in this country who seem quite content to let Putin manipulate an American election – which is deplorable. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1239 "2016-10-12T13:16:16Z")
The update’s based on polls from pollsters 538 does not regard very well. The most significant might actually be the USC Dornslife “Tracking poll” which surged towards Clinton again. What’s noteworthy is that takes as a group, the polls all say Clinton suddenly took a huge jump this week - which is what external events would have caused one to predict would happen. That makes the direction of the polls very plausible, even if they’re C-rated pollsters. The rape-bragging scandal and debate performance presaged a Clinton surge around Wednesday or Thursday, and it happened right on schedule. I am now really, really convinced the 538 estimates are probably too careful. (Again, Silver’s being a sabermetrician makes him overly wary, I think.) If the election was held today I think a 91% chance of a Clinton victory is a crazy low guess; I would put her chances at 99 percent if the election were held today. I find it impossible to believe Trump wins one in ten elections when he is losing by an estimated 6.5 points. That is a very big margin - larger than Obama’s win in 2012 (actually a lot bigger) and almost as large as his win in 2008. It’s not a landslide, but it’s not a close election at this point. The Princeton guess is now 97%, and I would have said 96. It is now very hard to construct a reason why Trump would catch up. It’s apparent he’s hit a ceiling of voters, his debate performances do not suggest for an instant the third debate will go any better, he has lost the practical support of his own party, and with Wikileaks itself now being questioned, I don’t know what October surprise could pop up about Clinton that anyone would really care about. If sites like Betfair are still offering 4-to-1 and 5-to-1 odds on Trump I’m going to go bet against him. ---
**Author:** ![Lakai](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de0a6/32.png) [@Lakai](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lakai)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1240 "2016-10-12T13:24:14Z")
Hillary’s [RCP average](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/) is now at +6.2 and she’s getting double digit leads in more recent polls. The only poll that had Trump leading - USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times [tracking poll](http://www.latimes.com/politics/) - is now showing a tie between Trump and Hillary. I haven’t yet seen a poll using only post debate data. I’m hopefully that Trump’s debate performance doesn’t slow down his hemorrhaging at the polls. The civil war he started with the GOP can’t be much help for him either. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2016, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1241 "2016-10-12T13:25:52Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > And apparently there are a lot people in this country who seem quite content to let Putin manipulate an American election – which is deplorable. The evidence would suggest that the only people who do so were voting Trump anyway. Anyone swayable is looking askance at Wikileaks now that it’s out that Russia is faking material. The thing about attacks is that if one goes too far, a candidate becomes immunized to them. When it was discovered that the George W. Bush discharge papers “leaked” in 2004 were ridiculous forgeries, the issue died entirely. It doesn’t even require forgery… a few elections ago in Canada, the Liberal party, attempting to cast the Conservative candidate as scary and dangerous, made an ad claiming he’d declare martial law, which was an insane lie. The ad actually only ran once in one province but was so stupid and over the top that it became a national joke - _and the other Liberal ads, which actually had been kind of effective, were basically neutralized_. Clinton was already becoming immunized to Wikileaks by virtue of it happening several times already and dragging on and on and getting kind of boring, but now you have the story that something from Wikileaks was faked, either by them, or by Russia, or possibly the two in concert. So no matter what Wikileaks leaks now, anyone intent on voting for Clinton will start with the assumption that it’s bogus. What Russia is doing borders on an act of war, IMHO, and is proof positive they are a hostile state and cannot be trusted by the West. But I think they’ve blown their chance to actually get their employee elected. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=61) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=63)