# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 73
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1442 "2016-10-26T21:22:50Z")
Yes, Clinton has only lead in the last 30 polls of Pennsylvania. Can’t take it for granted! Eta: The last poll seems to have been conducted by a Republican linked pollster which doesn’t appear to be even listed in 538’s rankings. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1443 "2016-10-26T21:25:02Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **asahi** : > > This country is still overwhelmingly white, and there are many whites who fear that ‘their’ country is slipping away from them and that this might be their last chance to save it. This country is overwhelmingly white, but it is not overwhelmingly xenophobic white. Just because most of Trump’s supporters are white does not mean that most whites are his supporters. And there are a lot of people, white and otherwise, who consider Trump to be a bigger threat to our country than the “others” are. ---
**Author:** ![stpauler](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9d8465/32.png) [@stpauler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/stpauler)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1444 "2016-10-26T21:37:51Z")
[From a poll released today:](https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/10_26_2016_marginals.pdf) > [@](#): > > 1. Donald Trump has been accused of groping and forcibly kissing women in the past. Do these accusations make you more or less likely to support him, or does it not have an impact on your vote? > (N=1,000) -------------------------------------------------------- n ---- % > More likely to support him-------------------------------------- 70 7.00 So either people are messing with the pollsters, misunderstood the question, or are just the worst people ever. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1445 "2016-10-26T21:50:09Z")
> [@stpauler](#): > > [From a poll released today:](https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/10_26_2016_marginals.pdf) > > So either people are messing with the pollsters, misunderstood the question, or are just the worst people ever. Or they just have that defiance reflex. Some of them probably should have answered “doesn’t change my vote” but some people can’t resist acting like everything just reinforces their opinion regardless of the mental gymnastics involved. ---
**Author:** ![squidfood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a87d85/32.png) [@squidfood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/squidfood)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1446 "2016-10-26T22:04:11Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > That would be the very definition of “picking polls”. > > If you look at the [polling history](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6022.html) for New Hampshire, it’s been an extremely uniform lead for Clinton since early August. There’s no reason so suggest that Trump is suddenly going to close the gap and overtake Clinton there. Oh I know, was just picking a nit with the statement “everything else recent is +7 or more for her.” But it’s ok, I’ll follow up by picking the next poll that just came out, NBC News/WSJ/Marist, that has her at +9 in N.H. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1447 "2016-10-26T22:41:02Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > This country is overwhelmingly white, but it is not overwhelmingly xenophobic white. I’m not saying that white America is overwhelmingly xenophobic and some of his supporters don’t even consider themselves particularly hostile to foreigners and minorities. Indeed, many Trump supporters will tell you “I’m not against immigration, I’m just against illegal immigration.” The catch is, if you dig deeper, what exactly is an “illegal” immigrant in their mind? They seem to believe that there’s a problem, but can one simply look at an illegal immigrant and identify one as such? I think it’s a case of not being aware of their own bias, a subconscious but powerful, driving bias. The same is true probably with regard to their views on African Americans and even legal immigrants who supposedly take American jobs. They’re probably okay with individual black and immigrants they know – “It’s all the others who are causing problems.” These are people who aren’t outwardly hostile – some are quite so but many aren’t. They just have this feeling that something isn’t quite right and hasn’t been since about 1965. > [@Chronos](#): > > Just because most of Trump’s supporters are white does not mean that most whites are his supporters. And there are a lot of people, white and otherwise, who consider Trump to be a bigger threat to our country than the “others” are. But the polls actually do say that most whites _are_ his supporters. I know that’s not what we as whites want to believe, but that’s what the data are telling us and in no way does this surprise me. Now, I also agree that not all those who support Trump are white – and I will never understand that. I guess what it tells me is that some people just don’t fear Trump. Some people continue to believe he’s not really that bad. “What harm could he really do, right?” “We can vote him out in 4 years, right?” Just like some republicans thought "Okay, sure let him up on the debate stage :D:dubious:😕:eek::eek::eek: ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1448 "2016-10-26T22:44:10Z")
Clinton solid in NH but hanging on in NV. > **[Clinton’s New Hampshire Lead Widens as Nevada Remains a Dead Heat](https://www.wsj.com/articles/clintons-new-hampshire-lead-widens-as-nevada-remains-a-dead-heat-1477515612)** > > The presidential election continues to be a dead heat in Nevada, while Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is opening a wider lead over Republican Donald Trump in New Hampshire, a new poll finds, as the candidates battle down the stretch in states... Nationally, Fox now says the race is tightening. Down to 3 point lead. > **[Fox News Poll: Clinton leads Trump by three points](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-clinton-leads-trump-by-three-points)** > > With less than two weeks to go, the race for the White House has narrowed as Hillary Clinton now has a three-point advantage over Donald Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1449 "2016-10-26T22:54:01Z")
> [@squidfood](#): > > Oh I know, was just picking a nit with the statement “everything else recent is +7 or more for her.” But it’s ok, I’ll follow up by picking the next poll that just came out, NBC News/WSJ/Marist, that has her at +9 in N.H. 😃 She was only +3 earlier in a NH poll earlier today. At this rate, she’ll be +235 by election day! 😃 > [@asahi](#): > > Nationally, Fox now says the race is tightening. Down to 3 point lead. > > [Fox News Poll: Clinton leads Trump by three points | Fox News](http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/26/fox-news-poll-clinton-leads-trump-by-three-points.html) New AP Poll has C+14 and new Suffolk has C+9 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1450 "2016-10-27T01:57:18Z")
Again, the wide spread in polling results even as the aggregate moves hardly at all is to me the big polling story of this point of the election, and hinges on divergent LV screen models. ---
**Author:** ![crucible](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@crucible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crucible)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1451 "2016-10-27T03:52:33Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Trump is polling at about 40%. So are you saying you meet a good variety of people and about 40% of them let you know how proud they are to vote for Trump? just saying, the folks I talk to don’t say anything nice about Trump, but will vote for him instead of that lying, cheating, bad-use-of-skin woman. When I explain that they have been brainwashed, they refer me to some 13 minute video that proves how vile is the lady. The point was, they don’t like Trump much, actually, but at least he will be entertaining. Thankfully, most folks around here won’t discuss politics unless they are in a group they are sure supports their side of things. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 9:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1452 "2016-10-27T09:31:02Z")
Jennifer J. Jones, a researcher at U.C. Irvine, [has uncovered an interesting fact: Donald’s Trump diction is very feminine.](http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/trump-feminine-speaking-style-214391) This may seem backwards — after all Trump is noted for locker-room “boys talk” — but the researcher suggests that counts of prepositions and pronouns, his tentative language, and emotion-laden words (e.g. “beautiful”, “despise”) fit a feminine model. She even suggests this is one reason he has enjoyed the electoral success he has: “Candidates who spoke in a feminine style were perceived as considerably warmer, more likable and more trustworthy than those whose style was more masculine.” Ms. Jones has [written more](https://web.archive.org/web/20160119150738/http://jennifer-j-jones.com/research/) on the “masculine” and “feminine” styles of politicians’ discourse: > [@](#): > > I begin with a case study asking whether a successful female politician–Hillary Clinton– talks more “like a man” as her power and prominence in the political arena grows. My results suggest her language becomes increasingly masculine over time, illustrating how myriad pressures and dynamics in political life affect a female politicians self-presentation. However, contrary to expectations and to previous research, I find that Clinton used a much more feminine style during her unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2008. This anomalous finding, which conflicts with the longer-term trend, thus presents an interesting puzzle and raises several important questions. Is Clinton simply unique? Is there any interaction with partisanship? > > To follow up on this puzzle, I examine a broader sample of male and female political leaders vying for high office. My initial findings suggest that politically powerful women tend to speak with a more masculine style as they attempt to move into leadership positions. For example, they tend to use more articles and prepositions and fewer pronouns and emotion words. However among male leaders, I find Democrats and Republicans speak differently– and in ways that are consistent with gender stereotypes commonly mapped onto the two parties– that is, that the Republican Party is seen as more masculine and more competent in dealing with “masculine issues” like foreign policy, whereas the Democratic Party is seen as more feminine and more competent at dealing with “feminine issues” like education and healthcare. Thus, I find male Democratic leaders are more likely to use a feminine style, particularly when competing for their party’s nomination for president, whereas male Republican leaders are more likely to use a masculine style, particularly when competing for their party’s nomination. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 10:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1453 "2016-10-27T10:56:52Z")
Around here, there are a fair number of Trump signs, so there are clearly some people who are actually for him, rather than merely ‘any R is better than the Hildebeast.’ Though I’m sure there are those too. But what **DSeid** said about the polls. Hillary seems to have settled into a six or seven point lead, depending on what aggregator you go with. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1454 "2016-10-27T14:57:24Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **septimus** : > > Jennifer J. Jones, a researcher at U.C. Irvine, has uncovered an interesting fact: Donald’s Trump diction is very feminine. Which is clearly BS, given that her results show that male politicians tend towards “feminine” diction and vice-versa. But nonetheless, it’s BS that I sincerely hope makes its way to Trump’s attention, because he’s sure to have an epic meltdown over it. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1455 "2016-10-27T15:16:12Z")
Would that be the Jennifer J. Jones who is a Ph.D. candidate in the field of Political Psychology? Ah, c’mon! Seriously? ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1456 "2016-10-27T15:17:04Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Which is clearly BS, given that her results show that male politicians tend towards “feminine” diction and vice-versa. It’s not BS if she studied the diction of non-politicians as well as politicians. Unfortunately I wasn’t able to find any of her papers online. (She has a website with links to papers … which return Error 404. :smack: ) ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1457 "2016-10-27T15:52:22Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > It’s not BS if she studied the diction of non-politicians as well as politicians. Unfortunately I wasn’t able to find any of her papers online. (She has a website with links to papers … which return Error 404. :smack: ) Was it this page? > **[Research](https://jennifer-j-gebhardt.com/research/)** > > Publications My dissertation “The Role of Gender Norms in Judicial Decision-Making at the U.S. Supreme Court: The Case of Male & Female Justices.” (with Shane Gleason and Jessica Rae McBe… I don’t get 404s. Anyway it looks like she drew on other’s research. Personally, whether Trump or Clinton “talk like a man” or not doesn’t interest me too much so this will be the extent of my research on the topic. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1458 "2016-10-27T16:18:36Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Ms. Jones has [written more](https://web.archive.org/web/20160119150738/http://jennifer-j-jones.com/research/) on the “masculine” and “feminine” styles of politicians’ discourse: This is one of those topics that might have some valid scientific grounding, but even if it does, I struggle to see the benefits of pursuing it. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1459 "2016-10-27T16:25:03Z")
Dcotorates? That’s a benefit. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1460 "2016-10-27T19:03:56Z")
Who the bleeding fuck examines the candidates for a doctorate in Political Psychology? ---
**Author:** ![Balance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ccd318/32.png) [@Balance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balance)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2016, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1461 "2016-10-27T19:15:44Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Who the bleeding fuck examines the candidates for a doctorate in Political Psychology? A large panel of ill-informed and largely disinterested people. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=72) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=74)