# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 78
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1542 "2016-11-01T16:16:59Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > When it gets through to him that the e-mail scandal ain’t going to get it … What makes you think this is the case? [The trend line is catastrophic for HRC](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html). Other posters in this thread are getting nervous. What makes you confident that HRC isn’t on-track to lose the election because of her “damn emails”? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1543 "2016-11-01T16:23:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Don’t the polls actually incorporate it already by asking if people have already voted? If the polls do incorporate it then 538 doesn’t need to adjust anything. They don’t incorporate the raw data, which shows registration numbers. That might be useful for future models. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1544 "2016-11-01T16:25:00Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > What makes you think this is the case? [The trend line is catastrophic for HRC](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html). Other posters in this thread are getting nervous. What makes you confident that HRC isn’t on-track to lose the election because of her “damn emails”? Clinton +2.2 now. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1545 "2016-11-01T16:31:49Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Clinton +2.2 now. Yes. two weeks ago she was +6.5. A week ago it was +5.4. Now it’s +2.2. If that trend continues, she’ll be at essentially tied or worse on election day. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1546 "2016-11-01T16:41:41Z")
Oh, I’m seeing the trend as well. But this is the third time. Usually it stops just short of Trump leading. But it will make for a very suspenseful election day, and Nate Silver disagrees that her winning NC means she wins the election: > **[The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing/)** > > We’ve written about this before, but I wanted to call your attention to it again because the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split keeps wideni… > [@](#): > > But Clinton is performing worse than Obama in 10 of the 12 states that were generally considered swing states in 2012. In some cases, such as Florida and Pennsylvania, the difference is negligible. She’s underperforming Obama substantially, however, in Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Nevada and to a somewhat lesser extent in Wisconsin and Minnesota. She’s considerably outperforming Obama in Virginia and North Carolina, conversely, but that’s not enough to make up for her losses elsewhere. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1547 "2016-11-01T16:46:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Oh, I’m seeing the trend as well. But this is the third time. Usually it stops just short of Trump leading. But it will make for a very suspenseful election day, and Nate Silver disagrees that her winning NC means she wins the election: > > [The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing | FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing/) Another popular-electoral-college split this year, particularly if it favored Republicans again, would probably have Dems spitting nails. Also, there are a couple of times Trump has exceeded Clinton in the RCP average, at the height of his peaks. Back in May and again in July. It’s an open question if this surge will end up like that again, or like the one in September, where he never caught up to Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1548 "2016-11-01T16:48:21Z")
They’ll continue their popular vote project, and then the next time the Democrat will have won the electoral college but lost the popular vote. And California will try to find some way out of keeping their commitment to support the popular vote winner. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1549 "2016-11-01T16:49:47Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > They’ll continue their popular vote project… What popular vote project? I didn’t realize they had something underway … ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1550 "2016-11-01T16:55:35Z")
Ever since 2000, states have been joining a compact to agree to give their electoral votes to the popular vote winner. > **[National Popular Vote](https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/)** > > State status: AK AL AR AZ CA CO CT DC DE FL GA HI IA ID IL IN KS KY LA MA MD ME MI MN MO MS MT NC ND NE NH NJ NM NV NY OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VA VT WA WI WV WY The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who... 11 states with 160 electoral votes have already signed on. ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1551 "2016-11-01T17:01:01Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Oh, I’m seeing the trend as well. But this is the third time. Usually it stops just short of Trump leading. But it will make for a very suspenseful election day, and Nate Silver disagrees that her winning NC means she wins the election: > > [The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing | FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-of-an-electoral-college-popular-vote-split-are-increasing/) You have to pretend MI, MN, WI, are tossups. They’re not. He doesn’t say one way or the other if NC is pivotal, just that her pop vote polling outperformance in VA and NC doesn’t offset underperformance in other states. Trump is a sputtering pinwheel of bombast spraying shit everywhere. He doesn’t belong as a major party nominee. The only reason he has ANY chance is because OH and FL are tossups. The suspense is going to be who will call OH, FL, and NC first. My guess is they drag 'em out until at least 9:00pm when CO closes. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1552 "2016-11-01T17:09:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Then it’s smart that 538 doesn’t adjust for early voting, but still, a lot of voting has taken place while Clinton led by 6. I don’t think it’s insignificant that Clinton is getting early votes in some states – it’s a welcome sign. But it’s also entirely possible that Clinton’s early voting trends fade and a surge in Trump support becomes more apparent as the race continues. If voting on election day or just before it is relatively easy then there’s less desperation to vote early, which is a contrast to those voters who feel a sense of desperation and worry that waiting until election day may mean driving far, taking time from work, long lines, and possibly not voting. Early voting means that democrats are taking their votes seriously but it doesn’t necessarily mean that trend will continue. And even if it does, let’s say you have half the electorate that votes early (probably optimistic) and Hillary leads by 3.5 percent, if Trump wins the other half by 4 percent on election day, which is entirely possible, then Trump is your winner. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1553 "2016-11-01T17:09:16Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > What makes you think this is the case? [The trend line is catastrophic for HRC](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html). Other posters in this thread are getting nervous. What makes you confident that HRC isn’t on-track to lose the election because of her “damn emails”? Actually, the trend line for the past couple weeks is sort of zig-zaggy for Hillary when you look at it daily-- goes up, goes down, but stays in the 47-49% range. Trump has jumped, but I don’t seen anything that would lead a person to believe his ceiling is higher than her floor-- his best has never been better than her worst, a brief couple days after the RNC and when he wrapped up the nom notwithstanding. Check out the 30-day trend and the three-month trend. Hardly catastrophic for Hillary, even with the “breaking news” that she has email troubles. Plus, the actual electoral map looks more catastrophic for Trump: -[Of RCP’s “toss-ups,”](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html) even if Hillary loses 7 of the 8 (but wins the likeliest one-- Colorado), she has 272. -On 538, [of all the states where Hillary has between 40-80% chance of winning the state (arguably “toss-ups”)](http://www.270towin.com/maps/vPWZk), all she has to win is NH and CO, or just NC, and she wins. I also think in a situation where national polls are neck-and-neck, I’d feel much better as a Hillary supporter because of her far-superior ground game which actually includes her party. Because let’s say Trump’s base is becoming more enthused and national polls look better for him among LVs-- that doesn’t really help him in states like SC, MS, AL, ID, etc, or even CA, NY, MI, WI, etc. She still has a better GOTV program in the states that actually matter and are tightening. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1554 "2016-11-01T17:11:35Z")
> [@ThisIsTheEnd](#): > > You have to pretend MI, MN, WI, are tossups. They’re not. > > He doesn’t say one way or the other if NC is pivotal, just that her pop vote polling outperformance in VA and NC doesn’t offset underperformance in other states. > > Trump is a sputtering pinwheel of bombast spraying shit everywhere. He doesn’t belong as a major party nominee. The only reason he has ANY chance is because OH and FL are tossups. > > The suspense is going to be who will call OH, FL, and NC first. My guess is they drag 'em out until at least 9:00pm when CO closes. Trump will win in Florida and Ohio. I’m less confident about his chances in North Carolina but he has polled strongly there in the past and he could do so again in the closing days. I think he would need to gain a solid 5 percent advantage to feel extremely confident about his chances of winning, and he would probably need at least a 2-3 percent lead in polls on election day in NC to have a realistic chance to win. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1555 "2016-11-01T17:11:58Z")
Yeah, but according to 538’s models, Trump is far more likely to win the electoral college while losing the popular vote than Clinton. So if he wins the popular vote, the map probably works itself out for him. Whereas Clinton could still be denied even if she wins a narrow popular vote victory. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1556 "2016-11-01T17:14:21Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Actually, the trend line for the past couple weeks is sort of zig-zaggy for Hillary when you look at it daily-- goes up, goes down, but stays in the 47-49% range. The past few weeks is no longer relevant – the past four days is what matters now, and the next 7 will matter even more, obviously. Hillary’s numbers have, to be blunt, collapsed. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1557 "2016-11-01T17:15:12Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Trump will win in Florida and Ohio. I’m less confident about his chances in North Carolina but he has polled strongly there in the past and he could do so again in the closing days. I think he would need to gain a solid 5 percent advantage to feel extremely confident about his chances of winning, and he would probably need at least a 2-3 percent lead in polls on election day in NC to have a realistic chance to win. He’s going to win Florida and Ohio? I thought he had a 50/50 shot at both. It’s possible, but I’m not so sure. It’s over if she wins both Florida and Ohio, isn’t it? She’s winning Pennsylvania for sure at this point, I think. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1558 "2016-11-01T17:16:14Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > … he would probably need at least a 2-3 percent lead in polls on election day in NC to have a realistic chance to win. I’m confused by this. What are you basing this on? Early voting? What % of NC votes early? How much of an advantage does Clinton have there? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1559 "2016-11-01T17:17:26Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Trump will win in Florida and Ohio. I’m less confident about his chances in North Carolina but he has polled strongly there in the past and he could do so again in the closing days. I think he would need to gain a solid 5 percent advantage to feel extremely confident about his chances of winning, and he would probably need at least a 2-3 percent lead in polls on election day in NC to have a realistic chance to win. So far your predictions have been wildly inconsistent. I’m certainly not going to take your estimate over all the experts. I think OH is very close, but Hillary is in good position in FL. We’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1560 "2016-11-01T17:19:45Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > It’s over if she wins both Florida and Ohio, isn’t it? Yes, or at least I can’t draw a plausible map where Trump wins while losing both FL and OH. > [@Mahaloth](#): > > She’s winning Pennsylvania for sure at this point, I think. Why so sure? She’s ahead there. She’s certainly _likely_ to win PA, but “for sure”? That seems a bit too much certainty for a very uncertain event. Nate Silver gives Trump an 18% chance of winning Pennsylvania. If you’re a Clinton supporter, that’s slightly worse odds than you’d get playing Russian Roulette. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1561 "2016-11-01T17:22:57Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Why so sure? She’s ahead there. She’s certainly _likely_ to win PA, but “for sure”? That seems a bit too much certainty for a very uncertain event. Nate Silver gives Trump an 18% chance of winning Pennsylvania. If you’re a Clinton supporter, that’s slightly worse odds than you’d get playing Russian Roulette. Trump is no longer advertising in PA. That’s a sign that they don’t think they have a shot at it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=77) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=79)