# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 79
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1562 "2016-11-01T17:22:59Z")
I’m not sure which I want to be over more badly, the election, or Nate Silver. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1563 "2016-11-01T17:23:15Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > … Hillary is in good position in FL. We’ll see. Her ground game doesn’t seem to be getting the job done in FL, at least not yet. [Politico: Weak early voter turnout among African-Americans hurts Clinton in Florida](http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-struggles-in-getting-african-americans-to-early-voting-polls-106931) > [@](#): > > After the first full weekend of in-person early voting ended Sunday, African-American turnout failed to meet expectations — or historic precedent — leaving top Democrats and activists fuming or worried that Clinton’s campaign isn’t living up to the hype in Florida. > > “They’re not doing enough in the black community. I have been screaming for months about this and nothing changed and now look what’s happening,” said Democratic U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings, who represents one of South Florida’s largest African-American communities. > Hastings said he told Clinton aide John Podesta on a conference call last week that “you need to plus-up the spending in the African-American community and get out the vote.” Hastings said he was told someone would get back to him. “Nobody did,” he said. > > … > > This year, though, Republicans still cling to their own lead of about 9,000. As of Monday morning about 3.7 million absentee and in-person early ballots had been cast, 40.5 percent of them by Republicans and 40.2 percent by Democrats. > “The black vote is way underperforming compared to 2012,” Smith said. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1564 "2016-11-01T17:25:25Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Her ground game doesn’t seem to be getting the job done in FL, at least not yet. [Politico: Weak early voter turnout among African-Americans hurts Clinton in Florida](http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-struggles-in-getting-african-americans-to-early-voting-polls-106931) Hispanic turnout is way up. Too soon to know for sure, but overall early voting looks positive for her. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1565 "2016-11-01T17:27:46Z")
Don;t worry, I’m voting for her, you can rest easy now. Other than the fact that I’ve voted for the loser in every single election, ever. Presidential anyway. My Senate success rate is almost the opposite. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1566 "2016-11-01T17:28:12Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Too soon to know for sure, but overall early voting looks positive for her. Cite? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1567 "2016-11-01T17:34:47Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Cite? [Here](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/31/us/politics/early-voting-trump-clinton.html) and [here](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-coalition-hispanic-support-is-up-black-turnout-is-down/). Not all good news for Clinton, but some – greatly increased Hispanic turnout might be making up for somewhat reduced black turnout. But it’s still early, so it’s far from conclusive. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1568 "2016-11-01T17:38:15Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I’m confused by this. What are you basing this on? Early voting? What % of NC votes early? How much of an advantage does Clinton have there? The upshot indicates, based on the ballots cast by party, that Clinton may have a 6 percent advantage (IIRC). I think it’s probably optimistic to think that half of NC voters would vote early and that the numbers will remain constant. I suspect that the early returns will probably be anywhere from 30-40 percent of the statewide total and they will gradually narrow. Still, Clinton appears to be off to a good start. If she can maintain this apparent advantage going into election day, it’s a good sign, especially in a state that isn’t solid red (at least not now). ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1569 "2016-11-01T17:39:00Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Cite? I like to look at the raw data here: [http://www.electproject.org/early\_2016](http://www.electproject.org/early_2016). The analysis is here: [Early Voting Stability Despite News Volatility | HuffPost Latest News](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-stability-de_b_12723188.html) (Huffing Post warning, although the author is the professor that compiles the data). There is some analysis there as well. Overall it’s a bit muddled, but probably somewhere between neutral (meaning reflecting overall polling) or slightly good news for Clinton. The big question is AA turnout, of course. No amount of boost in Latinos will compensate for big decreases in the AA vote. Moderate decreases can be survived. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1570 "2016-11-01T17:40:00Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > [Here](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/31/us/politics/early-voting-trump-clinton.html) and [here](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-coalition-hispanic-support-is-up-black-turnout-is-down/). Not all good news for Clinton, but some – greatly increased Hispanic turnout might be making up for somewhat reduced black turnout. But it’s still early, so it’s far from conclusive. Hispanic turnout in Florida is different than Hispanic turnout in the Southwestern United States. I say this as someone who’s lived in both FL and CA. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1571 "2016-11-01T17:41:38Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > I like to look at the raw data here: [http://www.electproject.org/early\_2016](http://www.electproject.org/early_2016). The analysis is here: [Early Voting Stability Despite News Volatility | HuffPost Latest News](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-stability-de_b_12723188.html) (Huffing Post warning, although the author is the professor that compiles the data). > > There is some analysis there as well. Overall it’s a bit muddled, but probably somewhere between neutral (meaning reflecting overall polling) or slightly good news for Clinton. The big question is AA turnout, of course. No amount of boost in Latinos will compensate for big decreases in the AA vote. Moderate decreases can be survived. Hispanic turnout would be good but it would have to be huge and the swing against Trump would have to really hard and I’m not entirely convinced that this is the case. Voting in critical South Florida, which is generally more liberal across all demographics, is down, and that’s a problem for Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1572 "2016-11-01T17:41:51Z")
Plus Latino turnout can’t make up for black turnout. african-Americans are the difference makers in critical battleground states. Latinos just help Clinton run up the score in CA and get her a little closer in TX. They do very little for the Electoral College, far less than African-American voters do. Then there’s the simple fact that Latinos just aren’t as Democratic as blacks. Losing voters who vote 90-10 for Democrats to a demographic that votes 65-25-10 is not a good tradeoff. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1573 "2016-11-01T17:42:59Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Trump is no longer advertising in PA. That’s a sign that they don’t think they have a shot at it. Not necessarily. It means that they’re going to focus on locking down states where they know they have a better chance and where it might get bang for the buck, and they’ll resort to different means of advertising (social media). Trust me: Trump is still very much a presence in PA - a big one. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1574 "2016-11-01T17:45:34Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Don;t worry, I’m voting for her, you can rest easy now. Other than the fact that I’ve voted for the loser in every single election, ever. Presidential anyway. My Senate success rate is almost the opposite. Hmm, maybe vote against her then. I believe in jinxes more than I believe in the power of one vote. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1575 "2016-11-01T17:52:07Z")
My record is Perot, Perot, Gore, Kerry, McCain, Romney. I’m worse at voting than predicting! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1576 "2016-11-01T17:58:38Z")
Polls plus puts Clinton at 70.5% as of now. Trump has as much chance of winning as a very good major league hitter has a chance of getting a hit in a particular at bat. or as much chance of winning as Aaron Rodgers has of throwing an incomplete pass. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1577 "2016-11-01T18:05:01Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Polls plus puts Clinton at 70.5% as of now. > > Trump has as much chance of winning as a very good major league hitter has a chance of getting a hit in a particular at bat. > > or as much chance of winning as Aaron Rodgers has of throwing an incomplete pass. Even worse are the trends, which are sharply declining against Hillary - at exactly the wrong time. Hillary has at times dominated the race but only to find Trump clawing back to within striking distance within a month. The question is, could Trump score the walk-off home run? And the answer seems to be, yes, he could. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1578 "2016-11-01T18:13:37Z")
This is very suspenseful. On the bright side, the GOP is looking more and more likely to retain the Senate. Their current odds are 31%, and even if Democrats get the Senate they are almost certainly to lose it, and lose big, in 2018. If Democrats thought the 2014 map was ugly… ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1579 "2016-11-01T18:19:36Z")
I’m actually terrified Trump might win. It’s a horrifying thought. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1580 "2016-11-01T18:21:28Z")
This is the United States of America. We’ll be fine. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1581 "2016-11-01T18:30:27Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > The past few weeks is no longer relevant – the past four days is what matters now, and the next 7 will matter even more, obviously. Hillary’s numbers have, to be blunt, collapsed. To be blunt, you’re wrong. [They haven’t collapsed](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html). The numbers look tighter because Trump’s numbers have gone up. Hers are pretty much the same as a month ago, two weeks ago, a week ago, two days ago. I would guess Trumps numbers have gone up because a lot of voters (especially swing-staters) who may have been casting a third-party protest vote are now seeing they need to cast a real vote. As Johnson’s have declined since mid-October, Trump’s have gone up. People like adaher, Republicans in swing states, may have at one time been casting votes for Johnson or McMullin, but now realize that they could actually make a difference and are shifting to either Trump or Clinton, and it would appear mostly Trump. No one that was voting for Hillary seven days ago switched sides four days ago, and they won’t seven days from now. Her numbers are solid, they’ve been solid and the will either stay where they’re at or go slightly up as a few of those third-partiers (like adaher) choke down a vote for Hillary. You may also see more of Trump’s base wake up, and you may see a few more third-party numbers continue to join Trump’s side, but it’s very very unlikely that that will lift Trump higher than Clinton. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=78) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=80)