# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 82
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1622 "2016-11-02T13:26:20Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Sure, and according to Sam Wang it’s Clinton +3.2, and according to 538 it’s Clinton +4. > > The truth is probably around the middle, which is Clinton +3, which is of course roughly the average of where it’s been the whole race. > > I’m not sure how asahi gets 278-260, that’s kind of a weird split; I can construct that number only by assuming Trump wins Nevada and Florida, and the wins Wisconsin OR Minnesota but not both, and not Pennsylvania, Michigan or New Hampshire, and that would be a really weird arrangement of states. Trump is quite unlikely to win Wisconsin or Minnesota, but if he does he’s not going to lose the election; that would be a very large swing in his favour in six days, and enough to tip North Carolina (At least.) > > A much likelier scenario for a way-too-exciting-evening where Clinton wins is this one, because NC will go Trump before Wisconsin does: > > [270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](http://www.270towin.com/maps/JNNdy) > > Right now my suspicion is it’ll look like this, though this is not yet my official prediction: > > [270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](http://www.270towin.com/maps/owwmy) It was early this morning when I made this but my projected map (as of now) looks like this: > **[270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/maps/3RRNN)** > > Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election Maine will probably have one delegate for Trump, as they divvy up their delegates. I’ve got Trump winning FL but Hillary winning NV to respond to your comment. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1623 "2016-11-02T13:31:07Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > I need a silver lining to a possible Trump victory. Is it possible that we just need four years of Trump to just get this out of our system? I know this is coming from a very privileged position of someone who can ride out, and even benefit financially from, a Trump presidency. But, Trump supporters are still going to exist and the GOP is still going to have to cater to them under a Clinton presidency. Maybe four years of Trump makes it so that we can all get together and agree not to ever do that again. Maybe the best thing for the country is for the GOP to get its shit back together and four years of Trump would push that? > > Maybe? Silver lining #1. Trump immediately becomes problematic to House republicans’ chances of reelection in November and they find something to impeach him on. It would be quite interesting to see if the democrats would help their republican colleagues in the senate impeach him, or per chance vote to light him fight the good fight and let him drag down the entire congress. Silver lining #2. Because Trump really and truly has no ideology, maybe he tries to be a bipartisan president of the people and fights with hard-lined republicans, thus proving Ted Cruz a prophet in establishing that he really isn’t a conservative. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 1:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1624 "2016-11-02T13:38:29Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > I need a silver lining to a possible Trump victory. Is it possible that we just need four years of Trump to just get this out of our system? I know this is coming from a very privileged position of someone who can ride out, and even benefit financially from, a Trump presidency. But, Trump supporters are still going to exist and the GOP is still going to have to cater to them under a Clinton presidency. Maybe four years of Trump makes it so that we can all get together and agree not to ever do that again. Maybe the best thing for the country is for the GOP to get its shit back together and four years of Trump would push that? > > Maybe? The most likely outcome of a Trump Presidency is that voters have two straight godawful Republican Presidencies to look back on, compared with two middling to good Democratic presidencies, and that will factor into their decisions for the next couple of decades. Should Trump win the Presidency, the most likely outcome is a crushing GOP defeat in 2020. From there, Democrats can have the White House and probably Congress as well for as long as they do the people’s will. That’s the silver lining. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1625 "2016-11-02T14:44:25Z")
The question is whether there will be anything left to govern by 2020. ---
**Author:** ![Spice\_Weasel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spice_weasel/32/5435_2.png) [@Spice\_Weasel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spice_Weasel)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1626 "2016-11-02T16:27:28Z")
Anyone got a paper bag I can breathe into? ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1627 "2016-11-02T17:03:50Z")
I think the biggest worry of a Trump presidency is what he will do with Obama’s promising but fragile climate change initiatives. He will certainly try to wreck them and there is no guarantee that it will be easy to put the pieces back together in 4 or 8 years especially when you require the agreement of diverse countries like China, India and Russia. Who knows what the global political order will look like after 4/8 years of Trump ? The fate of the planet may literally be at stake in this election. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1628 "2016-11-02T17:57:26Z")
Shit just got real. Trump possibly winning in Nevada. > **[New CNN / ORC polls suggest new strength for Trump in Nevada, Clinton rise in...](https://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/)** > > Both the Clinton and Trump campaigns have hit the ground hard in Arizona, Florida, Nevada and Pennsylvania, and new CNN/ORC polls across the four states paint a picture of a tight race to the finish in critical battlegrounds. If so, that cuts Clinton’s EV count to 272 according to my analysis. New Hampshire will matter. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1629 "2016-11-02T18:02:02Z")
An additional problem is that there simply aren’t very good polls in either NH or Colorado, relying on polls like Google Consumer Surveys and SurveyMonkey. The media report that Clinton has a lead but we’re essentially in the dark until better polling comes out. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1630 "2016-11-02T18:04:23Z")
I wouldn’t worry much about the state polling. It’s interesting to look at, but the winner of the popular vote will almost certainly win the electoral vote as well. If we had more quality polling in all the key states, that would be one thing, but we don’t, so the national polls are the only reliable guide. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1631 "2016-11-02T18:09:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I wouldn’t worry much about the state polling. It’s interesting to look at, but the winner of the popular vote will almost certainly win the electoral vote as well. If we had more quality polling in all the key states, that would be one thing, but we don’t, so the national polls are the only reliable guide. No, not with early voting. It’s a lot more variable now. We could have popular polling the last two days which could put Clinton or Trump ahead in various swing states, but you also have to factor in early voting, which could account for 20-40% of voting in some states. Polling that shows one candidate beating the other by 1-2% on election day may or may not be enough to overcome a slow start. And in some states, candidates are going to run up the scores. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1632 "2016-11-02T18:11:09Z")
The pollsters should be counting people who have already voted. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1633 "2016-11-02T18:13:28Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Shit just got real. Trump possibly winning in Nevada. > > [http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/](http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/) > > If so, that cuts Clinton’s EV count to 272 according to my analysis. New Hampshire will matter. Strongly conflicts with the early voting numbers in NV. Also, the same thing happened with NV in 2012 – polling said Obama was only up by 2 or 3 points or less, but he won by 7. Pollsters still may have not yet figured out how to accurately poll Hispanic voters. More here: [The Early Vote In Nevada Suggests Clinton Might Beat Her Polls There | FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/) ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1634 "2016-11-02T18:18:28Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Shit just got real. Trump possibly winning in Nevada. > > [http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/](http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/) > > If so, that cuts Clinton’s EV count to 272 according to my analysis. New Hampshire will matter. [Here is my current map](http://www.270towin.com/maps/AWwjm) I’d say Trump is favored in all the states I marked red (in some cases _very_ slightly), but he still needs to pick up one of the Clinton-favored states I’ve marked as undecided (or the pair of NV + NH). [Looking at 538’s “snake view”](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus&stateorder), I’d put those in order of probability like this: CO, PA, NV+NH, WI, MI, MN. Basically, Trump still has to pick off one of Clinton’s “firewall” states. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1635 "2016-11-02T18:25:46Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Strongly conflicts with the early voting numbers in NV. Also, the same thing happened with NV in 2012 – polling said Obama was only up by 2 or 3 points or less, but he won by 7. Pollsters still may have not yet figured out how to accurately poll Hispanic voters. > > More here: [The Early Vote In Nevada Suggests Clinton Might Beat Her Polls There | FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/) For more current updates, directly from the source, I’d encourage you to read [Jon Ralston’s blog](http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1636 "2016-11-02T18:28:30Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > For more current updates, directly from the source, I’d encourage you to read [Jon Ralston’s blog](http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog) That’s a good source – the article I cited also cites Ralston, who agrees with the conclusion. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1637 "2016-11-02T18:37:05Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Strongly conflicts with the early voting numbers in NV. Also, the same thing happened with NV in 2012 – polling said Obama was only up by 2 or 3 points or less, but he won by 7. Pollsters still may have not yet figured out how to accurately poll Hispanic voters. > > More here: [The Early Vote In Nevada Suggests Clinton Might Beat Her Polls There | FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/) I agree that there’s not enough really good data to say for sure that Trump is leading, but he’s almost certainly gaining on Clinton there. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1638 "2016-11-02T18:39:03Z")
RCP’s no tossup count is 273-265. 538 now has a 30% chance for Trump. The gradient of the trendlines on both sites is unsettling. If the numbers don’t stabilize in the next couple of days it’s going to be panic time. It’s also worrying that Hillary’s lead on RCP both nationally and in CO is now less than half the percentage of undecided voters. She is far from closing the deal and there is always the worry that the undecided are just Trump voters who don’t want to admit it. On the other hand the intangibles do seem to favor Hillary. She has a lot more money and is cutting some pretty effective ads which should help sway the genuinely undecided. The breadth and quality of her surrogates:a popular President, ex-President and First Lady among others is perhaps unparalleled in US election history. And you would back her data-driven GOTV operation which is building on highly successful Obama efforts to squeeze out every last voter on election day. ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1639 "2016-11-02T18:42:14Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The pollsters should be counting people who have already voted. I agree. Also, when they do post-debate polls asking who won, they should leave one full day before they start polling, and they should proportionally include people who **didn’t** watch it. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1640 "2016-11-02T18:42:58Z")
Friday is coming up, and I wonder if there’s another shoe drop or another dirty trick. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1641 "2016-11-02T18:49:09Z")
The problem with paying so much attention to early voting is that it’s not a true snapshot of the population. It may be one day when it’s more widespread but at the moment different demographics use it to greater or lesser degree. I think those demographics vary from state to state too. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=81) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=83)