# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 83
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1642 "2016-11-02T18:56:37Z")
Here’s a dose of perspective for people freaking out about Comey’s letter’s impact on the race. All National polls in the field 10/29 to present (compared w/ change from pre-Comey poll): YouGov C+3 (C-1) Times-Picayune +3 (C+1) Rasmussen +0 (0) Morning Consult +3 (O) So far, at least, there is no evidence in the national polls that the Comey letter changed anything. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1643 "2016-11-02T19:03:25Z")
Clinton’s dive may have finally hit the bottom in Florida. Too early to tell yet but CNN puts her in the lead. Whether she’s in the lead or not is hard to tell but this is somewhat reminiscent of what happened after her awful September stretch - IIRC Florida was one of the first states in which Clinton’s falling poll numbers began to stabilize and recover, just before she had her winning streak beginning with the first debate. That may be playing out here again now. Let’s hope there’s not another Friday scandal drop. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1644 "2016-11-02T19:17:05Z")
New Quinnipiac polls: FLORIDA: Clinton 46 – Trump 45, Johnson 2 NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 47 – Trump 44, Johnson 3 OHIO: Trump 46 – Clinton 41, Johnson 5 PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 48 – Trump 43, Johnson 3 ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1645 "2016-11-02T19:21:42Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > New Quinnipiac polls: > > FLORIDA: Clinton 46 – Trump 45, Johnson 2 > > NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 47 – Trump 44, Johnson 3 > > OHIO: Trump 46 – Clinton 41, Johnson 5 > > PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 48 – Trump 43, Johnson 3 That’ll have HRC smiling. When was the poll in the field? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1646 "2016-11-02T19:24:08Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > That’ll have HRC smiling. When was the poll in the field? Not sure yet, but it was just released, so presumably the last few days. [EDIT:](https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2399) October 27 - November 1 ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1647 "2016-11-02T19:31:13Z")
[Clinton still up by six in WI](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/clinton-leads-six-points-wi-poll). ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1648 "2016-11-02T19:32:05Z")
That Quinnipiac poll for NC asked respondents if they voted already – early voters back Clinton 58-36… very big margin. The Upshot’s estimate for NC, based on early voting registration numbers and their own polling, estimates early voters to HRC 53-43, with a total estimated result of HRC winning NC by +7. All of those numbers look very, very good for HRC. If NC is called for HRC shortly after polls close, then we’ll probably know that Hillary has won the election quite early. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1649 "2016-11-02T20:19:50Z")
If that’s true, Clinton will win, of course; it is very difficult to construct a plausible map where Trump wins while losing North Carolina. Not impossible; he could flip Pennsylvania, but that seems kinda unlikely in a universe where he won North Carolina by seven points. Having said that I am extremely, extremely dubious of Clinton carrying North Carolina by seven points. That is totally inconsistent with the polls, on every possible level. Clinton has probably NEVER been that far ahead and it would be bizarre to think she’s that far ahead now. The problem with drawing conclusions based on early voting is that early voters are a self-selecting group and are not representative of the state as a whole. Granted, this is a huge chunk of the voters - probably half the state, at least, will have voted before Election Day - but exit polls can be chancy. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1650 "2016-11-02T20:32:37Z")
Supposedly the campaign’s data whiz kids are able to target low propensity voters for early voting. If that’s actually true then they may allow the campaign to beat polls though of course seven points is still implausible. Anyway NC is really important and polling has been all over the place so it’s nice to see a high quality poll with a moderate Hillary lead. A high quality CO poll would be nice now. The Times Picayune/Lucid poll has Hillary up by 7 but it doesn’t have a 538 grade. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1651 "2016-11-02T20:33:34Z")
Even if early voters aren’t representative of the population as a whole, they’re still the very epitome of both likely voters and rigid voters, so a lead there definitely has meaning. And Clinton has not just a lead, but a very strong lead. Those are voters who can no longer be dissuaded from voting by any scandal, nor persuaded to vote for Trump instead. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1652 "2016-11-02T20:36:21Z")
If I were running Trump’s campaign the strategy would focus mostly on how to get over the firewall while trying not to fall behind in the toss-up / pinkish states of Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. He can’t waste time with Wisconsin, Minnesota, or Michigan and I don’t really get the strategy. Realistically, he can climb the firewall by winning in New Hampshire _and_ Nevada, or by taking Pennsylvania - assuming of course that he can wrest away FL, OH, and NC. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1653 "2016-11-02T20:49:56Z")
So you’re saying he should try to win states where he has the best chance? What a novel strategy. I bet someone on the Trump campaign is reading this now and completely remaking their plans. ---
**Author:** ![Salvor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Salvor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Salvor)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1654 "2016-11-02T20:55:27Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > I need a silver lining to a possible Trump victory. Is it possible that we just need four years of Trump to just get this out of our system? I know this is coming from a very privileged position of someone who can ride out, and even benefit financially from, a Trump presidency. But, Trump supporters are still going to exist and the GOP is still going to have to cater to them under a Clinton presidency. Maybe four years of Trump makes it so that we can all get together and agree not to ever do that again. Maybe the best thing for the country is for the GOP to get its shit back together and four years of Trump would push that? > > Maybe? I see no silver lining to a Trump victory. On another angle, there are several Hillary hating youtubers that I want to see explode with rage after the over the top whining they have been doing against her. Thinking Sargon of Akkad, who I agree with on many issues, but on Hillary he thinks she’s worse than Trump and as such has been doing hitvid after hitvid. ---
**Author:** ![Nonsuch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nonsuch/32/2922_2.png) [@Nonsuch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nonsuch)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1655 "2016-11-02T21:09:31Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Clinton’s dive may have finally hit the bottom in Florida. Too early to tell yet but CNN puts her in the lead. Whether she’s in the lead or not is hard to tell but this is somewhat reminiscent of what happened after her awful September stretch - IIRC Florida was one of the first states in which Clinton’s falling poll numbers began to stabilize and recover, just before she had her winning streak beginning with the first debate. That may be playing out here again now. > > Let’s hope there’s not another Friday scandal drop. Some further signs of a [Clinton rebound in Florida](https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/02/exclusive-evidence-that-democrats-are-beginning-to-ramp-up-gotv-in-se-florida-miami-dade-broward-palm-beach-where-clinton-needs-to-turn-out-democrats-npas/): 50% of the early votes in three crucial SE counties so far have been cast by registered Democrats. Also looks like African-American turnout is on the upswing. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1656 "2016-11-02T22:15:37Z")
> [@Nonsuch](#): > > Some further signs of a [Clinton rebound in Florida](https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/02/exclusive-evidence-that-democrats-are-beginning-to-ramp-up-gotv-in-se-florida-miami-dade-broward-palm-beach-where-clinton-needs-to-turn-out-democrats-npas/): 50% of the early votes in three crucial SE counties so far have been cast by registered Democrats. Also looks like African-American turnout is on the upswing. [New York Times](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/02/us/politics/black-turnout-falls-in-early-voting-boding-ill-for-hillary-clinton.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0) are taking a more pessimistic view that African American turnout is lower than previously… ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1657 "2016-11-02T23:26:31Z")
Is anyone aggregating the aggregators yet? ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1658 "2016-11-02T23:29:55Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Is anyone aggregating the aggregators yet? > **[Who’s Winning Today’s Forecasts of Who Will Win the Election?](https://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/09/trump_vs_clinton_who_s_winning_today_s_forecasts_of_who_will_win_the_election.html?x-amz-meta-http-status=302)** > > This election, predictor extraordinaire Nate Silver is offering not one but three sets of probabilities for the general election result. (You can read ... ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1659 "2016-11-02T23:31:39Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > [Trump vs. Clinton: Who’s winning today’s forecasts of who will win the election?](http://slate.com/forecast) Sure, but we need some special sauce! We need to give each of the aggregators a rating and a house effect to compute the actual aggregated aggregation! ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1660 "2016-11-02T23:32:17Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Is anyone aggregating the aggregators yet? DSeid turned me on to this place: > **[PollyVote - Celebrating 20 years of Evidence-Based Election Forecasting](https://www.pollyvote.com/)** > > Established in 2004, PollyVote offers highly accurate election forecasts by combining forecasts from evidence-based forecasting methods. They aggregate polls, experts’ opinion, betting sites, citizen forecasts and econometric models. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1661 "2016-11-02T23:35:30Z")
On 538 [in the fresh updates page](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/), there are the latest Ipsos polls, Clinton was +3 ahead of Trump on the poll covering Oct. 24-28, in the following polls Clinton has gone to +6, +8, +7 and +7 in the last one that goes to today. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=82) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=84)