# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/161 "2016-07-28T14:39:30Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > I don’t believe Trump said that. He asked the Russians to find Clinton’s 30,000 missing emails. Emails now famously known to have been held on a private server. Indeed he didn’t. But as suggested above, Trump’s opponents will justify it to themselves to lie about him, that’s politics really. And this is a fairly minor lie or distortion about a rather stupid statement by Trump IMO by any reading. It doesn’t make sense to interpret the statement as asking the Russians to hack (as in the future) because Clinton deleted the emails. The FBI with full access to everything couldn’t restore much, so how could hackers now? For hackers to have them they’d have had to hack them from Clinton’s non-secure personal server back before they were deleted. Which is why I doubt the Democrats can make much net hay about this statement by Trump. You can’t talk about Trump and Russian hackers without reminding people that Clinton was ‘extremely careless’ protecting classified information…against hackers. And the Comey press conference, ‘extremely careless’ seems to have been the start of Clinton’s fall in the polls; a transient Trump convention bounce might have added onto that but doesn’t seem to be the whole story AFAICT. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/162 "2016-07-28T15:18:29Z")
> [@Corry\_El](#): > > Indeed he didn’t. But as suggested above, Trump’s opponents will justify it to themselves to lie about him, that’s politics really. And this is a fairly minor lie or distortion about a rather stupid statement by Trump IMO by any reading. Trump’s handlers are saying that he was “sarcastic”, and “tongue in cheek”. If Trump sincerely invited Russia to look for (ie, hack) missing email on an American’s private server, he’s a traitor. If he was sarcastic, he’s an idiot. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/163 "2016-07-28T15:25:30Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > Trump’s handlers are saying that he was “sarcastic”, and “tongue in cheek”. > > If Trump sincerely invited Russia to look for (ie, hack) missing email on an American’s private server, he’s a traitor. If he was sarcastic, he’s an idiot. Here’s what I think: He attempted to bring Hillary’s email problem back into the public eye by seriously inviting the Russians to hack for those emails, but in a sarcastic, Trumpian manner. That makes him a treacherous idiot. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/164 "2016-07-28T15:30:55Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > Here’s what I think: He attempted to bring Hillary’s email problem back into the public eye by seriously inviting the Russians to hack for those emails, but in a sarcastic, Trumpian manner. That makes him a treacherous idiot. Benedict Gump. ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/165 "2016-07-28T15:38:24Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > Trump’s handlers are saying that he was “sarcastic”, and “tongue in cheek”. > > If Trump sincerely invited Russia to look for (ie, hack) missing email on an American’s private server, he’s a traitor. If he was sarcastic, he’s an idiot. Again, there’s no logic to the idea it was an invitation for a future hack. The emails were deleted, the FBI could not recover (many of) them with full access to everything. ‘Finding’ the emails if serious could only refer to hacks that already occurred, before the emails were deleted. IOW ‘Trump invites Russians to hack’ is made up, basically. I understand the need to distort the opponent’s statements ‘for the common good’ or at least that people on each side of politics convince themselves of it, but it’s still not actually what he said (‘I invite you to hack’) nor does it logically hold together as meaning that if taken seriously. The statement calls attention to an apparently serious weakness of Clinton (her fall in the polls starting after the Comey press conference and continuing up to now could be a coincidence and caused by other things, and could change back, but I believe it’s largely related, NBC/WSJ poll internal seems to say this). It’s also drawing the ‘fainting couch’ response by the media that often blunts the effect of potential missteps by Trump: they can get so wound up about what he says they end up looking as silly as he does. This is a case IMO. I don’t think anyone including Trump knows exactly how much is method and how much is madness in his technique. Idiot savant maybe, not outright idiot. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/166 "2016-07-28T15:48:10Z")
> [@Corry\_El](#): > > Again, there’s no logic to the idea it was an invitation for a future hack. The emails were deleted, the FBI could not recover (many of) them with full access to everything. ‘Finding’ the emails if serious could only refer to hacks that already occurred, before the emails were deleted. IOW ‘Trump invites Russians to hack’ is made up, basically. I understand the need to distort the opponent’s statements ‘for the common good’ or at least that people on each side of politics convince themselves of it, but it’s still not actually what he said (‘I invite you to hack’) nor does it logically hold together as meaning that if taken seriously. > > The statement calls attention to an apparently serious weakness of Clinton (her fall in the polls starting after the Comey press conference and continuing up to now could be a coincidence and caused by other things, and could change back, but I believe it’s largely related, NBC/WSJ poll internal seems to say this). It’s also drawing the ‘fainting couch’ response by the media that often blunts the effect of potential missteps by Trump: they can get so wound up about what he says they end up looking as silly as he does. This is a case IMO. > > I don’t think anyone including Trump knows exactly how much is method and how much is madness in his technique. Idiot savant maybe, not outright idiot. I actually think there’s something to Czarcasm’s Gump reference. Forrest wasn’t an idiot savant, he was an idiot who fell ass-backwards into the history books. Trump’s doing the same. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/167 "2016-07-28T15:49:56Z")
> [@Corry\_El](#): > > I don’t think anyone including Trump knows exactly how much is method and how much is madness in his technique. Idiot savant maybe, not outright idiot. IMHO – there is no filter between Trump’s brain and his mouth. The concept that there are some things that a President or a presidential candidate just shouldn’t say, or that sarcasm is not a good look on a statesman, is completely alien to him. Just one reason why he’s unfit to be president. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/168 "2016-07-28T15:50:50Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > I have to say, though, this “puppet of Russia” line is one that I’ve seen few consider before the past couple of weeks. If nothing else, this may blunt the insistence that the Clinton Foundation was selling influence or whatever. > > It’ll be interesting to see how it plays in the general. > > Speaking of the general, honest question: every time a possible weakness of Trump comes up, there’s a chorus that says, “Yeah, but his numbers haven’t gone down yet.” But how often does that happen, honestly, when a major presidential candidate’s supporters get peeled off like that? The Dems should actually repeat the Russian puppet argument extensively. Do I think Trump is a Russian puppet? In my heart of hearts, no, I think he just has a stupid opinion on Russia, I think Russia got caught hacking the DNC (it was known over a month ago), and they’ve decided to do a data dump posing as a “hacktivist” group called Guccifer 2.0. Doing so gives them some veneer of “this wasn’t Russia this was a hacktivist group”, and also push comes to shove they would prefer Donald over Hillary. I _suspect_ the Russian long game would’ve still preferred the hack go unnoticed so they could continue collecting intel (particularly if Hillary wins, there could be national-security relevant communications that go through DNC/campaign emails during the transition, that Russia would’ve liked to have seen.) **But** , here’s the thing, for about 24 god damn years the GOP has happily and enthusiastically repeated so many nonsensical, conspiracist bullshit about the Clintons (both Bill/Hillary jointly and individually) that’s it’s basically time for the Dems to play the same game. I don’t give a fuck if Trump is really a Russian puppet, I think we should vigorously say he is–there’s more than enough evidence, by the “conspiracy theory” standards, to make the claim. More so than there is that Vince Foster was murdered–an insane CT that still has breath to this day. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/169 "2016-07-28T16:03:32Z")
> [@Corry\_El](#): > > Again, there’s no logic to the idea it was an invitation for a future hack. The emails were deleted, the FBI could not recover (many of) them with full access to everything. ‘Finding’ the emails if serious could only refer to hacks that already occurred, before the emails were deleted. IOW ‘Trump invites Russians to hack’ is made up, basically. Inviting Russia to pour through already hacked emails, by them or by someone else, is still encouraging hacking, in the same way that viewing child pornography is encouraging child exploitation. In any case, you could read Trump’s pleading as suggesting that Russia hack others. The fact that the emails were deleted from the server given to the FBI doesn’t mean they don’t exist anywhere. One place they likely exist is on the recipients and senders servers. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/170 "2016-07-28T16:13:05Z")
I agree Martin Hyde. While some may be willing to watch the government burn or just spurn Hillary by electing Trump, I figure at least a good few of them aren’t willing to become Russia’s bitch in the process. There’s a whole pile of arrows pointing to Trump’s weakness on this. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/171 "2016-07-28T16:37:46Z")
Add me to the group who is tired of the Dems taking the higher road all the way to defeat. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/172 "2016-07-28T16:58:18Z")
> [@Corry\_El](#): > > Again, there’s no logic to the idea it was an invitation for a future hack. The emails were deleted, the FBI could not recover (many of) them with full access to everything. You are trying to interpret Trump’s comments based on the assumption he’s being logical, which is itself illogical. Trump’s words are meant to evoke emotions; he doesn’t even try to be logical. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/173 "2016-07-28T17:04:45Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Add me to the group who is tired of the Dems taking the higher road all the way to defeat. This nightmare scenario popped into my head last night: What if today’s polls hold; Clinton doesn’t get a convention bounce; there are more stupid and embarrassing email revelations…and we head into November with Trump in the lead. Hillary does the patriotic thing and sacrifices her ambition for the good of the country. She announces that since obviously her personal negative ratings are leading the nation into a disastrous choice, she would rather retire from politics than see Trump as President. Therefore, she is withdrawing her candidacy. (What happens then and how that works, god knows). ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_Tightlips](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/57b2e6/32.png) [@Joey\_Tightlips](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_Tightlips)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/174 "2016-07-28T17:08:45Z")
> [@snoe](#): > > Good on ya, Tightlips; registering to vote (and voting) may seem like small things, and I guess they are, in a way. But they are positive things, and if enough people do them, that’ll add up. > My own small step this year was finally switching my party registration (registered Green many moons ago as a teenage idealist). I’m planning to do some phone-bank work in swing states this fall. As an introvert who once did telemarketing, that sounds like sheer hell, but I have to do something. > > Fist bump to you, Joey. As a fellow introvert (see user name), I can’t imagine caring about anything enough to make **phone calls** to _ **strangers** _ _shudder_. So good ya as well Snoe. I’ve noticed a disturbing trend in the last week where people I know are “coming out” as Trump voters. Seemingly reasonable people who agree that he’s a terrible candidate, but for some reason feel Hillary must be stopped at all costs. I guess they’ve secretly felt that way for a while but now feel they may as well be open about it. If it becomes a common theme, I see things going poorly the next few months. Seriously people, this is way beyond the “It’s not funny anymore” stage. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/175 "2016-07-28T17:16:30Z")
> [@Joey\_Tightlips](#): > > Seemingly reasonable people who agree that he’s a terrible candidate, but **for some reason** feel Hillary must be stopped at all costs. I guess they’ve secretly felt that way for a while but now feel they may as well be open about it. If it becomes a common theme, I see things going poorly the next few months. Seriously people, this is way beyond the “It’s not funny anymore” stage. “Some reason” = 25 years of utter bullshit conspiracy theory nonsense that has caught hold and won’t go away, like herpes. There are people out there who think she murdered Vince Foster, for crissakes. ---
**Author:** ![SaharaTea](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@SaharaTea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SaharaTea)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/176 "2016-07-28T17:26:00Z")
> [@Joey\_Tightlips](#): > > I’ve noticed a disturbing trend in the last week where people I know are “coming out” as Trump voters. Seemingly reasonable people who agree that he’s a terrible candidate, but for some reason feel Hillary must be stopped at all costs. I guess they’ve secretly felt that way for a while but now feel they may as well be open about it. If it becomes a common theme, I see things going poorly the next few months. Seriously people, this is way beyond the “It’s not funny anymore” stage. Yes, I’ve noticed that too. Six months ago my boss said he would leave the Republican Party if Trump was the nominee. Yesterday he announced that he’s voting for Trump. :smack: The Hillary hate is too strong for most Republicans. But I think some of them can be convinced to stay home or write someone in. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/177 "2016-07-28T17:33:51Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > If the Democrats are terrified of a cyber surprise, **then why the hell aren’t they spending millions hiring top security experts to hack Trump and find surprises of their own?** > This I don’t really believe, no. The numbers for Johnson and Stein will fall significantly. Because it would be wrong. Besides, even better would be to spend that $$ on security and “rat-traps” to show they have caught the Russkies at it. I agree. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/178 "2016-07-28T17:35:42Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > I don’t believe Trump said that. He asked the Russians to find Clinton’s 30,000 missing emails. Emails now famously known to have been held on a private server. Which contain Classified States dept data. In other words, he asked the Russians to steal Secret US data. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/179 "2016-07-28T17:58:02Z")
I guess I’m missing the panic because people keep finding Republicans who are voting for Trump and/or can’t understand why the latest comment is never “the one!” The old saw is correct: 40% of the country identify as Republican. Voting for Hillary literally repudiates the last 20+ years of their political identity and it is difficult to change like that. Yes, there is “Hillary hate” but there is “I’ve been R for all my life… what else am I supposed to do?” working on the traditional Republican electorate. No matter what he _says_ that shocks one, Trump is not going to crater below the high 30s nationally unless it is proven he is actually in pay of the Russians… in which case, 15% of the country will still vote for the guy. Bill Clinton won with, what, 43% of the vote in 1992? Odd that in 2016 people are despairing his wife isn’t winning 60/40. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/180 "2016-07-28T18:01:07Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > “Some reason” = 25 years of utter bullshit conspiracy theory nonsense that has caught hold and won’t go away, like herpes. There are people out there who think she murdered Vince Foster, for crissakes. My wife’s friend-- a college-educated woman married to a doctor who espouses left of center policy beliefs-- asked my wife who she was voting for the other day. My wife said “Hillary, how is this even a question?” Her friend said, “She’s just done so much questionable stuff.” “Like what?” my wife asks. “Well, she gave away classified information to other countries, right?” My wife: :smack: And somewhere in hell, a demon got his wings. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=10)