# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 95
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 3:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1882 "2016-11-07T03:54:42Z")
As if we didn’t need more drama, here’s an event that could prove to be pivotal: Philadelphia area transit has gone on strike and there’s no injunction. What I don’t for the life of me understand is how the bloody fuck SEPTA, presumably a public union, arrives at the idea that giving a Republican a chance to become president helps their cause. Seems like the absolute last thing they’d want. > **[A Transit Strike In Philly Could Lower Turnout, Especially Among Black And...](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-transit-strike-in-philly-could-lower-turnout-among-black-and-poor-voters/)** > > UPDATE (Nov. 7, 2016, 7 a.m.): The SEPTA strike was settled early Monday morning. While commentators digest the latest announcement from FBI Director James Come… I’m telling you now. Pennsylvania, even without this strike, is going to be closer than people assume. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1883 "2016-11-07T04:00:26Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > As if we didn’t need more drama, here’s an event that could prove to be pivotal: Philadelphia area transit has gone on strike and there’s no injunction. What I don’t for the life of me understand is how the bloody fuck SEPTA, presumably a public union, arrives at the idea that giving a Republican a chance to become president helps their cause. Seems like the absolute last thing they’d want. > > [A Transit Strike In Philly Could Lower Turnout, Especially Among Black And Poor Voters | FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-transit-strike-in-philly-could-lower-turnout-among-black-and-poor-voters/) > > I’m telling you now. Pennsylvania, even without this strike, is going to be closer than people assume. A PAC has offered to fund free rides on Uber or Lyft to anyone who needs a ride to the poll, so maybe the impact won’t be so bad. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1884 "2016-11-07T04:38:27Z")
You know, we talk about all these events or tricks that could reduce turnout, but in reality none of this has as much effect as the weather. Snow or heavy rains in one place can wipe out all the human factors in several races, if not all of them put together. So what I want to know on Monday is, who is getting bad weather on Tuesday? ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1885 "2016-11-07T05:05:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > You know, we talk about all these events or tricks that could reduce turnout, but in reality none of this has as much effect as the weather. Snow or heavy rains in one place can wipe out all the human factors in several races, if not all of them put together. So what I want to know on Monday is, who is getting bad weather on Tuesday? This weather-based predictive map that I found is quite informative (the map on the right side): [http://www.weather.gov/forecastmaps](http://www.weather.gov/forecastmaps) It shows Arizona, Florida and the southern part of Texas going to Trump; Maine & surprisingly parts of Wyoming and Montana are going to Hillary. And if you think _that_’s a shocker, most of the rest of the country seems to be swinging toward Jill Stein and write-ins for the Liberal Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1886 "2016-11-07T05:38:29Z")
Ok, a serious answer on the weather. Go here: [http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html](http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html) You can stop the animation, and step forward to the frames (currently 5 & 6) that show Tuesday. There are high pressure systems (fine weather) over the bulk of the east and west of the country, with rain ahead of a cold front that extends from TX northeast to the Great Lakes. But the only heavy rain & thunderstorms are over the solid red block TX, LA, OK, AR, KS, MO. Lighter rain over solid blue states further northeast later in the day. The only state that’s in play that will see any weather looks like IA, that will probably have a damp morning. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 6:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1887 "2016-11-07T06:03:07Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > …and write-ins for the Liberal Democrats. I was around when the Clintonistas boned them, but didn’t know they had actually been expelled. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 6:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1888 "2016-11-07T06:04:09Z")
So, where the weather is daunting and uncomfortable, the early voting is more likely to carry the day? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1889 "2016-11-07T06:05:01Z")
No, where the weather is daunting Democrats stay home, Republicans brave it. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 6:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1890 "2016-11-07T06:06:47Z")
That’s just hyperbole, but here’s an actual cite on how much weather can affect an election: > **[Can the Weather Affect Presidential Elections?](https://www.historynewsnetwork.org/article/can-the-weather-affect-presidential-elections)** > > The surprising answer is yes – and it’s not just because snow can keep voters aeway from the polls (though that happens too). > [@](#): > > Here’s what they found. While voters are typically acclimated to normal weather patterns, above average precipitation on Election Day can severely decrease turnout. Gomez, Hansford, and Krause found the greatest effect came with heavy rainfall in Tunica County, Mississippi, during the election of 1972. A resounding 3.8% of eligible voters who otherwise would have participated failed to show up because of 4.35 inches of rain. Overall, an inch more of rain on Election Day decreases turnout in a county by 0.9%. Snow is also a factor. Every inch of snow above the average decreases voter turnout by 0.5%. > > Which party is helped by bad weather? The Republicans. According to Gomez, Hansford, and Krause “peripheral voters” – those inclined to support Democratic candidates – are most likely to be affected by bad weather. “In addition to its direct effect on voter turnout, we have shown that bad weather may affect electoral outcomes by significantly decreasing Democratic presidential vote share, to the benefit of Republicans,” they write. > > Their model suggests that dry weather on Election Day in Florida in the all-important 2000 race might have helped Al Gore win Florida and the presidency. Unfortunately for Gore, it rained in many places, deterring his voters from going to the polls. > > - See more at: [Can the Weather Affect Presidential Elections? | History News Network](http://historynewsnetwork.org/article/162595#sthash.YAHsIJpv.dpuf) ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 6:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1891 "2016-11-07T06:10:10Z")
In general I would imagine weather reduces the correlation of the polling errors given the geographical diversity of the swing states. IOW the weather may hurt Trump in some states and Hillary in others; overall that may be good for Hillary given the current map though the effect is probably small. This [article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/11/02/even-if-weather-used-to-skew-voter-turnout-its-quickly-losing-its-effect-at-the-polls/)looks at some of the research and the conclusion is that the weather probably won’t matter much. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 9:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1892 "2016-11-07T09:48:45Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > As if we didn’t need more drama, here’s an event that could prove to be pivotal: Philadelphia area transit has gone on strike and there’s no injunction. What I don’t for the life of me understand is how the bloody fuck SEPTA, presumably a public union, arrives at the idea that giving a Republican a chance to become president helps their cause. Seems like the absolute last thing they’d want. > > [A Transit Strike In Philly Could Lower Turnout, Especially Among Black And Poor Voters | FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-transit-strike-in-philly-could-lower-turnout-among-black-and-poor-voters/) [Nope.](http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Two-sides-still-talking-on-SEPTA-contract.html?mobi=true) ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 10:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1893 "2016-11-07T10:31:13Z")
“Deal reached to end [SEPTA] strike.” Wow, that was close. I really think that _might_ have made the difference – just the sort of unpredictability that makes Nate Silver look wise. Talk about leverage. I assume the strike organizers knew exactly how big a ticking bomb they had built, so to speak. Pretty brilliant, really. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 11:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1894 "2016-11-07T11:27:49Z")
FTR, I still think Hillary would squeak it out, strike or not, but it would definitely raise my blood pressure a little if they continued to strike tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1895 "2016-11-07T12:38:04Z")
Wow, Clinton down to 63.6%. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1896 "2016-11-07T12:59:14Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Wow, Clinton down to 63.6%. But the betting market is still at 83%, and the rallies in the stock market and the $ have held up, so weight of money reflects a significant drop in Trump’s chances on the FBI announcement that has not shown up at all on 538. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1897 "2016-11-07T13:33:00Z")
The betting markets seem to think Clinton’s going to win decisively, with over 320 electoral votes. Interestingly though, they seem to agree more with 538 on the Senate and House. 60% chance of Democratic takeover of the Senate, but the House is grim for Dems: the two most likely outcomes, totalling 98%, are Republicans 230-240 and GOP 240-250. The Republicans currently have 247 seats, so the betting markets are betting hard on not too significant losses there. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1898 "2016-11-07T13:37:45Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Wow, Clinton down to 63.6%. AS of 35 minutes prior to this it’s 65 and change. Anyway, Silver’s model is wrong now, of that I’m certain. Well, it’s not wrong. It works for what it does, it’s just a model on a computer. But it doesn’t incorporate early voting information, which at this point is very clearly favourable for Clinton. The state we know most about is Nevada, which 538 has as a toss up but is at worst 95% likely to go Clinton; that does change the forecast if you figure that in. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1899 "2016-11-07T14:07:31Z")
Yeah, 2016 has shown some flaws in the 538 model. Even Silver admitted on his podcast that it breaks down at the margins. In addition, as you noted, it does not take early voting into account, which is kind of odd for an aggregation model that is to forecast the election - why not incorporate the one “poll” that actually matters? I understand it would be difficult to do as each of the States have differing requirements as to what they pre-announce, however, NC breaks down their voting numbers daily, which should be incorporated at least into the NC model. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1900 "2016-11-07T14:13:00Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > …it does not take early voting into account… Yes, this is really strange. Has he explained why? I can understand that with the diversity of voting protocols there may note yet be a large enough sample size to develop an _accurate_ model for the significance of early voting, but surely it’s obvious that it contributes significant information? Surely you must proceed either by incorporating the best provisional model you can come up with, or just stop forecasting at the time when early voting starts. It makes no sense to me that he continues “real-time” forecasting and just ignores it. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1901 "2016-11-07T14:19:48Z")
Early voting isn’t very predictive, maybe that’s why he doesn’t incorporate it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=94) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846.md?page=96)