# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 6\
**Page:** 99

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**Author:** ![TheStake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecae2f/32.png) [@TheStake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheStake)\
**Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1962 "2016-11-09T03:21:30Z")

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Trump’s looking good

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**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1963 "2016-11-09T03:24:56Z")

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The chances of him winning are looking good. He still still does not.

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**Author:** ![TheStake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecae2f/32.png) [@TheStake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheStake)\
**Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1964 "2016-11-09T03:26:34Z")

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To each their own. It’s pretty amazing. No one ever thought this was coming.

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**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\
**Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1965 "2016-11-09T03:28:39Z")

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HOLY SHIT! [538 flips](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-night-forecast-2016/) and sez Trump has a 55% chance of winning. :eek:

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**Author:** ![TheStake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecae2f/32.png) [@TheStake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheStake)\
**Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1966 "2016-11-09T03:29:13Z")

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That’s awesome! Thanks for the link!

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**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\
**Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1967 "2016-11-09T03:29:15Z")

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> [@DSeid](#):
>
> No question that Silver’s uncertainty was well justified.
> 
> You, asahi, called it every which way.
> 
> Meanwhile yes my reaction is deep horror. If this turns out as it is looking now that it might then I believe our country is turned back many decades and the world is in deep shit.
> 
> I am physically ill.

I am also physically ill, and I didn’t call it in every which way. I still thought Clinton would win. I just thought it could be closer than some of the Sam Wang projections, but the real “winners” :rolleyes: are the Trumpistas who kept the faith.

So, egg on my face too.

I’m there with ya, man. I’m seriously bent out of shape. It almost doesn’t seem real. Even Nate’s wrong. Crazy.

Millions of thoughts but can’t quite process them right now.

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