# Trump could win the election in a nowcast by FiveThirtyEight

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [July 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846 "2016-07-25T13:36:00Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 1907

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**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [November 7, 2016, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-could-win-the-election-in-a-nowcast-by-fivethirtyeight/760846/1907 "2016-11-07T15:07:34Z")

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> [@Riemann](#):
>
> Ok, so my assumption that it contributes useful information is just wrong?

Well it can and a bunch of interesting stuff is happening this year but historically it isn’t a very good predictor so it’s hardly surprising he doesn’t want to be making a bunch of from the hip adjustments to his model to incorporate it. I posted these articles in the “stretch run” thread:

> [@Clinton v Trump - The Stretch Run Thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/4541):
>
> I haven’t seen anything that says early voting is predictive.  
> [538: Don’t read too much into early voting](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/)
> 
> [RCP: Early Voting a Poor Predictor of Final Results](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/02/early_voting_a_poor_predictor_of_final_results.html)

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