# Trump Crowds vs Biden Crowds **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 27, 2020, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062 "2020-10-27T21:13:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Biffster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biffster/32/339_2.png) [@Biffster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biffster)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 6:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/201 "2020-11-04T06:17:59Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > You can also simply look at [how other countries have done](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality). Canada, a similar country to the US in many respects, has had 28 deaths/100k population. The US has had 71. If we had simply matched Canada, total US deaths would be reduced by around 140,000. And Canada is a much more socialist country, especially with respect to health care. America would have been wise to follow Canada’s lead. PM Trudeau said early on to the people, “Gi home and stay home.” ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/204 "2020-11-04T17:54:38Z")
I’m surprised that more people don’t realize how poorly the crisis was handled. Remember the two weeks or so after the lockdowns began? What if we’d been prepared? In my experience , it took about two weeks for restaurants to gear up for takeout, businesses and schools to set up virtual platforms, etc. What if we’d been, you know… ready? We might’ve mitigated a couple of week’s worth of economic damage. What if there had been better metrics for starting lockdowns? Some areas might’ve locked down sooner, but others might have stayed more open for longer. Remember how everyone said “no one could’ve anticipated the toilet paper shortage? Bullshit. Maybe not specifically the TP shortage but the government could’ve anticipated irrational shortages and had stockpiles and plans for shortages of all the most common consumer products. This is the US government and all its agencies we are talking about. Yes, if you sideline them in favor of managing a crisis of this magnitude with a group of cronies, you’ll get a response like what we got. If we had a President capable of mobilizing the thousands of people below him in the all the related agencies, we could’ve done better. A LOT better. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2020, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/205 "2020-11-04T18:35:36Z")
> [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > If we had a President capable of mobilizing the thousands of people below him in the all the related agencies, we could’ve done better. A LOT better. We could have been a model, something for other countries to look up to and follow as an example. Instead, we are serving only as a bad example of what not to do, and give other countries that may be having problems the excuse that at least they aren’t as bad as we are. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2020, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/206 "2020-11-07T20:18:48Z")
I believe that Biden has a really big crowd right now. Huge crowd outside the White House right now! ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2020, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/207 "2020-11-07T22:55:25Z")
Also, on the streets of Manhattan, Brooklyn, and in a few small towns in NJ. ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2020, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/208 "2020-11-07T22:59:52Z")
Also in other countries. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2020, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/209 "2020-11-07T23:01:02Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Today CNN has a ‘Campaign in Pictures’ story which highlights the huge disparity in crowd sizes between Biden and Trump: At the ballot box, eh? ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2020, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/210 "2020-11-07T23:14:52Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > At the ballot box, eh? Well, yeah. I said from the beginning that Trump’s crowds didn’t look like those for a candidate who was down 10 points in the polls and about to lose in a landslide. And he wasn’t. The polls were wrong. Specifically to Florida, I pointed out that Trump’s crowds indicated he was doing better than the pollsters said, and the lack of enthusiasm in Miami-Dade might spell trouble for Democrats. Trump was supposed to lose Florida, and he won it by six points. Trump also got the second-highest number of votes in history, with Biden getting the most. So overall voter enthusiasm also explains the large crowds, with Biden intentionally suppressing his becaise of Covid concerns. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2020, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/211 "2020-11-07T23:17:21Z")
I will eat crow about being wrong about the crowds part. I thought there was no correlation between crowd size and turnout, but Trump did beat the expectations and defied the polling again. That 8-12 percent Biden national popular vote win did not happen, not did Biden beat Trump in Wisconsin by 17 percent, as one poll suggested. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2020, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/212 "2020-11-07T23:22:04Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Trump also got the second-highest number of votes in history, with Biden getting the most. So overall voter enthusiasm also explains the large crowds, with Biden intentionally suppressing his becaise of Covid concerns. Right. And Trump calling those crowds to order was a display of his lack of concern for the health of the people that put him in place. In a just world, he would have accountability for providing a place, and encouraging them to gather. Fuck him, I’m so glad he’s going away. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2020, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/213 "2020-11-08T00:20:58Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > > [@bobot](#): > > > > At the ballot box, eh? > > Well, yeah. I said from the beginning that Trump’s crowds didn’t look like those for a candidate who was down 10 points in the polls and about to lose in a landslide. And he wasn’t. The polls were wrong. Specifically to Florida, I pointed out that Trump’s crowds indicated he was doing better than the pollsters said, and the lack of enthusiasm in Miami-Dade might spell trouble for Democrats. Trump was supposed to lose Florida, and he won it by six points. > > Trump also got the second-highest number of votes in history, with Biden getting the most. So overall voter enthusiasm also explains the large crowds, with Biden intentionally suppressing his becaise of Covid concerns. Where are you getting your numbers? Pretty sure all the numbers you mention here are wrong, and they haven’t stopped counting. ---
**Author:** ![Boycott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boycott/32/6741_2.png) [@Boycott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boycott)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2020, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/214 "2020-11-08T00:26:32Z")
Trump got a fairly big crowd in Erie County in PA just a week before the election but ended up losing the county to Biden. It flipped from 2016. His rally didn’t work out in getting out the vote. It massaged his ego, made his hardcore fans excited, but he still lost because rally crowds don’t matter. One super excited voter who would crawl over glass to vote has the same weight of value in his vote a someone who is only casting a ballot for damage limitation. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2020, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/215 "2020-11-08T00:30:38Z")
Before we all say “the polls were wrong”, we should wait for the counting to be done. They will be wrong in some states, most notably FL, but it may not be by much. And in states like GA, they may have been exactly on the nose (pretty sure Nate Silver’s model had Biden up in GA by a fraction of a point). ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2020, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/216 "2020-11-08T00:37:42Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Well, yeah. I said from the beginning that Trump’s crowds didn’t look like those for a candidate who was down 10 points in the polls and about to lose in a landslide. And he wasn’t. I’d call 4 million votes somewhat of a landslide. The electoral vote is not much indication of the people’s wishes. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2020, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/217 "2020-11-08T00:40:55Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Before we all say “the polls were wrong”, we should wait for the counting to be done. They will be wrong in some states, most notably FL, but it may not be by much. Isn’t FL within the margin of error? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2020, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/218 "2020-11-08T00:42:07Z")
I’m thinking of Nate’s model, which doesn’t have a margin of error. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2020, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/219 "2020-11-08T01:09:29Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > I’d call 4 million votes somewhat of a landslide. The electoral vote is not much indication of the people’s wishes. The Republicans held the Senate, and so far have gained 18 seats in the House. It’s still possible (but highly unlikeky) that they could win the house. The Democrats never gained a single state assembly or Governorship, the hope of Democratic redistricting is dead. The Democrats failed to knock off a single Republican incumbent in the House. I believe Republicans picked up something like 100 seats in state houses. Democrats lost significant support among Blacks and Hispanics. Young people 18-44 shifted right more than any other Demographic group. All this after Democrats outspent the Republicans something like 5-1, and had the media on their side. This was not a Democratic landslide. In fact, if Biden hadn’t eaked out the Presidency, it would have been seen as a disaster for Democrats. As it is, Biden’s coattails couldn’t win the Senate, somhe is going to be handcuffed the day he starts. From my stanpoint as an anti-trump libertarian, the result of this election could hardly be better. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2020, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/220 "2020-11-08T01:14:08Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > The Republicans held the Senate, and so far have gained 18 seats in the House. Both of these assertions are factually false (so far, at least - still counting or awaiting runoffs). Where are you getting such inaccurate information? ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2020, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/221 "2020-11-08T02:30:47Z")
So you’re wrong, and decide to change the narrative from Trump to mayors and congress critters. Hey, you win. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2020, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062/222 "2020-11-08T02:45:16Z")
Okay, if you want to be pedantic, at this moment it’s 46-48 in the Senate for Republicans, but the outstanding races heavily favor the Republicans. There are two runoff elections coming in Georgia, with Republicans favored to win both. The other outstanding races are North Carolina, with Republican Thom Tillis up 100,000 votes with 98% reporting. Republican Tommy Tuberville is leading his opponent by 60%-40%. The Democrats pick up Mark Kelly, who is up 90,000 votes against Martha McSally with 90% of the vote in, and John Hickenlooper. That gets us to 48-50 for Republicans, with the Georgia runoffs to come. Democrats would have to win both to get to 50, and that’s very unlikely to happen. And Republicans are currently trying to get Joe Manchin to flip. The House is currently 214D, 196R. with 25 seats left to be decided. Republicans started with 199, so they only have to win 4 seats out of the 25 to stay even. Of the remainng races, Democrats are leading in 8, and Republicans are leading in 17. So the number in the house is now 4 seats behind what I said, but the numbers I listed were from the last time I read them yesterday. But some of the races are extremely close. Democrats could still pull out two seats in California where Republicans are currently leading. Iowa, where the Democeat currently leads, could go either way. The Democrat is only up about 150 votes. A real nail-biter that will probably go to a recount. Democrats still have a shot against the leading Republican in Texas-24, wherevthe Republican is up about 4,000 votes with 100% reporting. Unlikely. And Republicans could still win Virginia-7, where the Democrat is only up 4500 votes with 100% reporting. Unlikely. So by my numbers, if the Democrats win every race that is still close, the end result will be 226-209, for a Republican pickup of ten seats. If Republicans win every race that’s still close, it would be 220-215, with the Republicans picking up 16 seats and the Democrats only having a 5 seat majority. So Republicans will most likely either remain the same or lose a seat in the Senate, and gain between 10 and 16 seats in the House. If the current leads hold, Democrats get 8 more seats, and Republicans get 17, so 222D, 213R. A pickup for Republicans of 14 seats. Some of this could change if there are lots of legal challenges pr recounts. But that’s the way it looks to stand right now. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-crowds-vs-biden-crowds/924062.md?page=12)