# Trump does not run for 2020: who on the GOP side and does it change the D choice? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 9, 2019, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470 "2019-01-09T15:17:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/41 "2019-01-10T19:24:26Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > As well as showing what hypocrites liberals are when it comes to women and minorities. “We LOVE women and minorities. As long as believe what we believe and say what we say. If they don’t, they’re blithering idiot traitors to their sex and Uncle Toms.” Man, you OBLITERATED that straw man! Awesome take down, dude. Great job. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/42 "2019-01-10T19:27:59Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Man, you OBLITERATED that straw man! Awesome take down, dude. Great job. It’s no less of a straw man than any of the other supposed “reasons” for conservative “tokens” (P.S. quess which side calls minority Republicans “tokens”). ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/43 "2019-01-10T20:17:12Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I think the resignation chances are far closer to 100% than 0%. When the report comes out, it will be damning. He will trade resignation for no prison time. No doubt he would trade anything for a guarantee of no prison. Who do you think can make that promise? Because a President Pence can’t do anything for him if it comes to charges at the state level. And something tells me Gov. Cuomo won’t be feeling that generous. ETA: I just saw **Steve MB** basically beat me to the same point. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/44 "2019-01-10T20:27:56Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Hypothetical. (Don’t fight it.) > > For whatever reason Trump does not run. Resigns, impeached and convicted, just tired of it … whatever. > > Who do you think gets the GOP nod? I’d bet on Nikki Haley. I’d bet against Pence. > > Does it being not-Trump alter who you’d assess as the the best D choice? The GOp will never, ever nominate a woman or minority. The Dems might be able to risk not putting Biden up. But it all depends on who the GOp frontrunner is. But it will not be Nikki Haley. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/45 "2019-01-10T20:48:19Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > The GOp will never, ever nominate a woman or minority. > > The Dems might be able to risk not putting Biden up. But it all depends on who the GOp frontrunner is. But it will not be Nikki Haley. Never, ever? On what basis are you saying that? They already nominated a guy that put a woman as his VP slot. Democrats have only put one woman on the VP ticket too. They put up a woman as president and that didn’t work out, but not because the candidate was a woman, but because that woman happened to be Hillary Clinton. I think there are more democrats scared of putting up a woman as a nominee than republicans. Look at all these nervous Nellies about Elizabeth Warren. I believe a woman will be president in my lifetime, and I think it’s probably 50/50 that that person will a republican. I would happily vote for Nikki Haley, and I know a lot of other republicans that would too. Your projection of republican hatred towards women is inflated to an insane degree. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/46 "2019-01-10T21:01:34Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > Never, ever? On what basis are you saying that? They already nominated a guy that put a woman as his VP slot. Democrats have only put one woman on the VP ticket too. They put up a woman as president and that didn’t work out, but not because the candidate was a woman, but because that woman happened to be Hillary Clinton. > > I think there are more democrats scared of putting up a woman as a nominee than republicans. Look at all these nervous Nellies about Elizabeth Warren. > > I believe a woman will be president in my lifetime, and I think it’s probably 50/50 that that person will a republican. I would happily vote for Nikki Haley, and I know a lot of other republicans that would too. Your projection of republican hatred towards women is inflated to an insane degree. Because a lot of the GOp base are sexist and racist. Yes, there was a woman Veep. VEEP. A joke job. As a Dem, I am not worried about Warren as a woman, but because of her gaffe and her very liberal positions, not to mention she doesnt come from any of the important states in the election. Still, I’d vote for her. Look at the new Congressional freshmen: > **[Meet the New Freshmen in Congress (Published 2018)](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/28/us/politics/congress-freshman-class.html)** > > The congressional freshman class of 2019 includes the most racially diverse and most female group of representatives ever elected to the House. 45 new GOP faces- only four women, all of whom are incidentally blonde. Not a single black person, and one poor lonely Hispanic. The GOP is incredibly racist and sexist. 67 new Dem faces- 38 of them women. 23 are minorities. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/47 "2019-01-10T21:28:36Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Yes, there was a woman Veep. VEEP. A joke job. Yes, a woman a heartbeat away from the job being held by a man with recurring cancer. > [@](#): > > [Meet the New Freshmen in Congress - The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/28/us/politics/congress-freshman-class.html) > > 45 new GOP faces- only four women, all of whom are incidentally blonde. Not a single black person, and one poor lonely Hispanic. The GOP is incredibly racist and sexist. > > 67 new Dem faces- 38 of them women. 23 are minorities. You don’t think that may be a little self selecting? There just plain aren’t as many minorities in the GOP, and perhaps GOP women as a whole aren’t as interested in entering into politics as GOP men. Am I just to assume that because there are a bunch of new female minorities in congress that that’s because democrats suddenly much less racist and sexist than they were before the last election? They’re there because they ran, and they ran because had a reason to. If Haley ran for president I have no doubt she’d be a strong contender. Those statistic sites seem to indicate that as well. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/48 "2019-01-10T21:40:06Z")
Of course there’s self-selecting. But that self-selecting will also happen with Presidential candidates. You can’t argue that the first female president is equally likely to be either party, when female politicians as a whole are so heavily Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/49 "2019-01-10T22:16:25Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > As well as showing what hypocrites liberals are when it comes to women and minorities. “We LOVE women and minorities. As long as believe what we believe and say what we say. If they don’t, they’re blithering idiot traitors to their sex and Uncle Toms.” No, it’s saying that liberals actually think about politics. They don’t vote for a woman just because she’s a woman or vote for a black person just because they’re black. They vote for whoever is the best individual, regardless of whether that individual is black or white, male or female. The fact that so many conservatives believe people only vote based on the race and gender of the candidate says a lot more about conservatives than it does about liberals. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/50 "2019-01-10T22:22:13Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Of course there’s self-selecting. But that self-selecting will also happen with Presidential candidates. You can’t argue that the first female president is equally likely to be either party, when female politicians as a whole are so heavily Democrats. In the UK the allegedly sexist Tories have had two female Prime Ministers; the allegedly feminist Labour Party have had none. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/51 "2019-01-10T22:42:38Z")
I suppose there’s a bit of “only-Nixon-could-go-to-China” in this. Let’s say the electorate were 50/50 Rep-Dem. If almost no Rep voter would cross party lines because they really want go see a woman president, but some Dems would, then mathematically a female prez HAS to be a Republican (this model is simplistic, but might describe a real effect). ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/52 "2019-01-10T22:49:43Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > If Haley ran for president I have no doubt she’d be a strong contender. I have **plenty** of doubt that she’d be a strong contender. I agree with BobLibDem that she’s an empty suit, and has largely been window-dressing on the national stage. I really don’t think she’d do well at all in a competitive national primary. Feel free to bookmark this, and tell me how wrong I am in 2020 or 2024 if she actually runs when the opportunity presents itself. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2019, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/53 "2019-01-11T00:34:50Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Might want to look at this: > > [https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/paul-ryan-favorable-rating](https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/paul-ryan-favorable-rating) That’s a very old poll taken right in the middle of the Republican Healthcare debacle. Things have changed for Ryan since then, including a giant tax cut for the rich that he can point to as an accomplishment. He walked out of the speakership on his own two feet rather than being dragged out by a torch wielding mob, which reflects well on him, and given how the next two years are shaping up to be, I think his time in office will be viewed with rose colored hindsight,akin to that enjoyed by George HW Bush recently. I also think he also does a pretty good job of straddling the various Republican factions. Not actually doing anything to oppose Trump, but also not leaping at the chance to join the Trump train. Also being very conservative in ideology with out the Frothing at the mouth vibe that is the characteristic of the Tea-party. ---
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2019, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/54 "2019-01-11T03:50:43Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I have **plenty** of doubt that she’d be a strong contender. I agree with BobLibDem that she’s an empty suit, and has largely been window-dressing on the national stage. I really don’t think she’d do well at all in a competitive national primary. > > Feel free to bookmark this, and tell me how wrong I am in 2020 or 2024 if she actually runs when the opportunity presents itself. Umm ok. But she is not going to primary Trump in 2020. And predicting someone isn’t going to be a nominee 6 years out isn’t exactly Nostradamus level prognostication so I probably will forget by then. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2019, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/55 "2019-01-11T04:13:05Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > That is a low bar and yes she clears it, but anyone who would make such a silly executive order I think isn’t presidential timber. Huh? Since 2016 “presidential timber” means being a screaming baby. In terms of silliness…I don’t think there is a bar any more. There still may be a bar for charisma, Trump has a kind of that. > [@Ashtura](#): > > As well as showing what hypocrites liberals are when it comes to women and minorities. “We LOVE women and minorities. As long as believe what we believe and say what we say. If they don’t, they’re blithering idiot traitors to their sex and Uncle Toms.” They have already used it as a shield plenty of times. Criticism of Sanders or Conway is often tried to be framed as misogyny. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2019, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/56 "2019-01-11T14:44:50Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > The problem is that there’s literally nobody who can make that deal. Even if the Mortuary Attendant offers him a federal pardon, he’s still looking at enough state charges to put him away for life even if he slims down to 239 pounds and develops some healthy muscle tone. Putin could offer him safe haven. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2019, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/57 "2019-01-11T19:23:17Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > That’s a very old poll taken right in the middle of the Republican Healthcare debacle. Things have changed for Ryan since then, including a giant tax cut for the rich that he can point to as an accomplishment. I had seen a more recent poll that had him down in the teens in the second half of 2018. (I couldn’t find it now, which was why I went with the older poll.) ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2019, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/58 "2019-01-11T19:26:25Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > Umm ok. But she is not going to primary Trump in 2020. Well, no. I’m arguing against the notion that she’ll be a great candidate in 2020 if Trump doesn’t run, or in 2024 if she has to wait until then. No, I don’t expect you to remember in 2024. But if it does come to pass that Trump doesn’t run next year, you might remember then. ---
**Author:** ![Ancient\_Erudite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/eb9ed0/32.png) [@Ancient\_Erudite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ancient_Erudite)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/59 "2019-01-14T21:25:28Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Hypothetical. (Don’t fight it.) > > For whatever reason Trump does not run. Resigns, impeached and convicted, just tired of it … whatever. > > Who do you think gets the GOP nod? I’d bet on Nikki Haley. I’d bet against Pence. > > Does it being not-Trump alter who you’d assess as the the best D choice? John Kasich. A moderate man, he is in many ways an Anti Trump. This means he would likely get not from the Never Trumpers moderates who would have voted Republican if not for Trump himself. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2019, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470/60 "2019-01-14T21:35:04Z")
After seeing Kasich’s utterly pathetic performance in the 2016 election, why in the _hell_ would the Republicans entrust their chances at controlling the government with his sad-sack mug? They _have_ to know that running Kasich would result in the Democratic candidate winning. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-does-not-run-for-2020-who-on-the-gop-side-and-does-it-change-the-d-choice/827470.md?page=4)