# Trump gives unwarranted nuke-launch order; just how likely is it to be carried out? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 14, 2017, 7:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805 "2017-02-14T07:00:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2017, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/21 "2017-02-15T03:39:28Z")
> [@alphaboi867](#): > > The President can dismiss the Secretary anytime he wants. If there’s no Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defence then the next most senior DoD official serves as Acting Secretary of Defence until on is confirmed. So in theory if the Secretary of Defence refused to countersign the President’s order to use nuclear weapons the President could keep firing senior DoD officials until the next in line agreed with him (basically the [Saturday Night Massacre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturday_Night_Massacre) with nuclear weapons). And it has to be the (Acting) Secretary of Defence; the President can’t just swap in another Cabinet secretary. If it works this way (I do not know) this would be ridiculous. Of what point is a two-man rule if all you have to do is keep swapping people out till you find one who will do what you want? Worse, if this could be done, all the president has to do is have someone there who will agree with him and just tell the guy on the other end that he fired whoever and the new guy is the new SecDef and agrees. I would hope the SecDef has some means to verify they are the SecDef to the people on the other end. If not the president can have any yo-yo just pretend they are SecDef (how many would recognize his voice?). If there is some security means to identify the SecDef I would have to assume you can’t simply just hand it to the next guy and keep going till you get the gardener in to agree to the whole thing. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2017, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/22 "2017-02-15T03:48:03Z")
> [@snfaulkner](#): > > Pretty good article on the subject over at [nuclearsecurity.com](http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2016/12/23/the-president-and-the-bomb-redux/). Thanks. The article mentions that lower-level staff are trained to execute nuclear launch orders without question. However, I wonder whether, when the stakes are as high as they are in nuke warfare, the US military ought to encourage them to express dissent instead. I recall reading a nonfiction book, _Trident_, written around the 1990s, I think?, in which an SSBN commander said that if he were ordered in wartime to launch his nukes, he would without hesitation, but if in peacetime, he were ordered out of the blue to launch, he would verify and re-verify and finally, if need be, demand to speak to the POTUS himself for an explanation - that the POTUS merely saying “Yes, do it” wouldn’t be good enough; the SSBN commander would have to be \*persuaded \*that the nuke order was necessary and wise. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2017, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/23 "2017-02-15T04:08:11Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Thanks. > > The article mentions that lower-level staff are trained to execute nuclear launch orders without question. However, I wonder whether, when the stakes are as high as they are in nuke warfare, the US military ought to encourage them to express dissent instead. I assume you have seen the movie WarGames (who hasn’t?). The opening scene shows two men in a missile silo that get orders to launch their missiles. [One of the men refuses](https://youtu.be/ReJ3RltihME?t=226) which is enough to stop the launch. Turns out it is a test and the military finds an alarming number unwilling to launch the missiles. So, the military puts a computer in charge and…well…you know the rest. That is, of course, fiction but I am willing to bet some percentage of men/women along the line would refuse in real life. It is not surprising either. When it came to it could you press a button that you knew would, at the least, kill millions and at the worst end the human race? It is understandable that some might falter if it came to it. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Tildrum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e95f7d/32.png) [@Tom\_Tildrum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Tildrum)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2017, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/24 "2017-02-15T04:52:13Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#): > > He fired the first acting cabinet member who pointed out that what he was doing might be illegal. Not so. She objected to it as unwise policy, not as illegal. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2017, 10:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/25 "2017-02-15T10:07:35Z")
> [@Tom\_Tildrum](#): > > Not so. She objected to it as unwise policy, not as illegal. She recommended that they not defend it. The only reason to do that is if she thinks that it is illegal, and defending it would put her in conflict to her sworn duty to the Constitution. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2017, 10:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/26 "2017-02-15T10:13:23Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > The two-man rule does not work this way. If the SecDef refuses to issue the command to launch nukes the president cannot just fire him and find someone who will. If he could there would be no point to the rule. > > Also, SecDef does not have to say “yes” just because he thinks Trump is sane. He can say “no” for any reason whatsoever. I can’t imagine someone is much worried about their job if they know the world will end in an hour if they say yes to the launch. Yes, he basically can. He can’t pick absolutely anyone, but he only needs the Acting Secretary, which is automatically applied down the line. The SecDef actually does not appear to have any discretion at all, legally. He has to say yes if it actually comes from the president. The whole entire reason we’ve been discussing this since the election is because what we thought was true, that there had to be two people on board, does not seem to actually be true. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2017, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/27 "2017-02-15T15:20:05Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#): > > We’ve discussed this a few times before; the fact that it isn’t unilateral is not much consolation. Per the OP, the scenario could play out as follows: > > Trump: That’s it! Let’s nuke Moscow! > Cabinet member (probably SecDef, but it could be Becky DeVos): The President seems to be in his right mind and has just given the order to launch. > > From then on out it follows the chain of command as people verify that they have received a valid order and, if everybody below Trump does the job they’re supposed to do, eventually we launch. > He fired the first acting cabinet member who pointed out that what he was doing might be illegal. If SecDef won’t sign off on it, he’s got a dozen more people he can call. Once you fire the first few chairmen of the joint chiefs of staff for failure to comply with your order, the 25th amendment starts to become a real possibility ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2017, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/28 "2017-02-15T15:28:43Z")
If Trump gives the order, it’s likely the public is already in a war frenzy. If the public is in a war frenzy, you can guarantee that all the military people are in a war frenzy. I can’t imagine any philosophers of morality being in that chain of command, despite Mad Dog’s other nickname. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2017, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/29 "2017-02-15T16:27:38Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > Yes, he basically can. He can’t pick absolutely anyone, but he only needs the Acting Secretary, which is automatically applied down the line. > > The SecDef actually does not appear to have any discretion at all, legally. He has to say yes if it actually comes from the president. > > The whole entire reason we’ve been discussing this since the election is because what we thought was true, that there had to be two people on board, does not seem to actually be true. If that is true (and it may well be…I have no idea) then it seems to me it is a worthless and needless step. Presumably the president authenticates himself as the national command authority and the SecDef refuses to say that the order comes from the president (even if it does he says no). SecDef: That order did not come from the president. Guy in Silo: Order is refused. President: WTF SecDef? Hang on silo guy…SecDef you’re fired. George here is next in line for SecDef (he isn’t but silo guy doesn’t know that). Tell him George… George: Yeah, that’s the president. Launch the nukes! Guy in Silo: Ok, order accepted and away they go! I realize the president is not talking directly to the guys in the silos but still, I think you can see this needless rubber stamp is worthless on any level if it operates in the fashion described. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2017, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/30 "2017-02-15T16:53:47Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > If Trump gives the order, it’s likely the public is already in a war frenzy. If the public is in a war frenzy, you can guarantee that all the military people are in a war frenzy. I can’t imagine any philosophers of morality being in that chain of command, despite Mad Dog’s other nickname. This. I doubt if Trump will suddenly, without buildup, give the nuclear launch order. It’s more likely to be a popular frenzy, possibly whipped up by Trump & supporters using scary fantasies and made-up events. Sort of like Hearst vowing to [“You furnish the pictures, I’ll furnish the war”](http://www.iancfriedman.com/?p=29) for his newspaper’s benefit. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2017, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/31 "2017-02-15T17:05:31Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > This. I doubt if Trump will suddenly, without buildup, give the nuclear launch order. It’s more likely to be a popular frenzy, possibly whipped up by Trump & supporters using scary fantasies and made-up events. Sort of like Hearst vowing to [“You furnish the pictures, I’ll furnish the war”](http://www.iancfriedman.com/?p=29) for his newspaper’s benefit. It need not be a frenzy at all. Consider how close the US got to a nuclear war during the Cuban missile crisis. The public certainly was not pushing for nuclear war but I am willing to bet if Trump was president then the missiles would have flown. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2017, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/32 "2017-02-15T17:11:31Z")
Disobey an order, what’s the worst thing that can happen - you get feted by liberal universities on lecture tours the rest of your working life. Obey the order and kill hundreds of thousands of innocent and poor working people while the unelected elite hide under a mountain somewhere … No choice is it. Fwiw, the British disobeyed US orders at Pristina. In the end Wesley Clarke got sacked for issuing stupid orders: [Incident at Pristina airport - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incident_at_Pristina_airport) ---
**Author:** ![Drum\_God](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drum_god/32/44_2.png) [@Drum\_God](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drum_God)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2017, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/33 "2017-02-15T17:45:39Z")
Nuclear war in the Trump era, in my opinion, is much more likely to be a “boiling frog” scenario. It will begin with every-escalating actions until Trump goes tactical nuke. Then, the rest of the world will see that the gloves are off and the real fun begins. ---
**Author:** ![aldiboronti](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9fc348/32.png) [@aldiboronti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aldiboronti)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2017, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/34 "2017-02-15T18:46:20Z")
Let’s just say if it isn’t likely to be carried out then the US has no nuclear shield at all while Trump is President. That is not a comforting thought. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2017, 8:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/35 "2017-02-16T08:54:54Z")
"Did that tweet really say, ‘launch the missiles’? “Yeah, came from the realdonaldtrump”. “Think it’s legit”? “About as legit as anything else we’ve seen” ---
**Author:** ![Weisshund](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ba8739/32.png) [@Weisshund](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Weisshund)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/36 "2017-02-17T01:48:06Z")
Pushing the “Red Button” is not all that easy, even in the face of an immanent first strike. To panic that Any president will have a bad dream, and wake up and punch the launch button on his night stand is kind of silly. The idea that anyone at all that could get elected president, no matter how much you hate the person, would have no idea at all that any kind of launch would go unanswered, and would fancy surviving a nuclear exchange is pure fantasy. August 6th 1945 this is not. Why is there always a question like this? ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/37 "2017-02-17T02:33:39Z")
> [@Weisshund](#): > > Pushing the “Red Button” is not all that easy, even in the face of an immanent first strike. > To panic that Any president will have a bad dream, and wake up and punch the launch button on his night stand is kind of silly. You’re right. I do not think anyone is suggesting Trump will just push “The Button” on a whim. The scary part is him manufacturing the [casus belli](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casus_belli) to be able to do it. Or, if not making up a reason, just consider his temperament. What if he was president during the Cuban missile crisis? As it was we came within a whisker of nuclear war. Would you trust Trump to have been as restrained in that situation? ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/38 "2017-02-17T14:23:59Z")
> [@up\_the\_junction](#): > > Disobey an order, what’s the worst thing that can happen - you get feted by liberal universities on lecture tours the rest of your working life. Unless of course if the order was to bomb Russia. Then you will smeared by liberals as a Kremlin tool and white supremacist, and forced to get a job selling questionable nutritional supplements. ---
**Author:** ![edwardcoast](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/cab0a1/32.png) [@edwardcoast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/edwardcoast)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/39 "2017-02-17T15:16:49Z")
Yes, but isn’t this a better fate for us all, than having elected someone who ran a private e-mail server?:smack: ---
**Author:** ![crucible](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@crucible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crucible)\ **Post date:** [February 17, 2017, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805/40 "2017-02-17T15:23:40Z")
> [@Tom\_Tildrum](#): > > Given that the captain of the Soviet submarine in that incident very nearly started a nuclear war on his own initiative, without orders from above, I would say perhaps so. Which also goes to show that “one’s own judgment” is a double-edged sword. Pretty sure of a story that a Soviet era radar facility commander stopped a launch of retaliatory nukes when the rising sun looked like an American attack. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-gives-unwarranted-nuke-launch-order-just-how-likely-is-it-to-be-carried-out/779805.md?page=3)