# Trump going to win after all? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 30, 2016, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089 "2016-10-30T04:50:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/21 "2016-10-30T16:43:32Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > If you’ll permit a foreigner’s perspective and an extremely anecdotal and unscientific one., I spent some time in the US in August and September. Most of it in New York State and Massachusetts, not likely places for a Trump triumph. I saw plenty of Trump signs, I saw ONE Hillary sign. Driving from NYC to Niagara, in the state where Hillary was a Senator for 8 years, nothing, zip, nada. > > I met several Trump supporters, and they did not conform to the stereotype, they were educated, professionals, one was a Doctor who was married to a **gasp** muslim. > > So, yeah I have a sneaky suspicion that Trump might win. I think his support is understated. That’s the kinda resoning that Trump uses to thing he’s winning. He gets big turnouts at his rallies, so he must be winning. Trust the polls. ---
**Author:** ![Nawth\_Chucka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/c57346/32.png) [@Nawth\_Chucka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nawth_Chucka)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/22 "2016-10-30T17:54:52Z")
> [@Clothahump](#): > > With any luck, he will. And I’m saying luck from the point of view of our society. > > It astounds me no end that after eight disastrous years of Obama, people think Hillary should be President. Leaving her felonies and habitual lying out of the mix, she would be four more years of the same disastrous bullshit, and I’m not sure the country would be able to survive it. DISASTROUS DISASTROUS DISASTROUS DISASTROUS DISASTROUS Here at Trump University the most important thing you’ll learn (and have nothing to show for it if you’re not already a trust fund brat) is that if you repeat a lie often enough people will believe it. It’s ok that YOU know it’s a lie, the important thing is to control how others think; after all, you’re better and smarter than they are so it’s the natural order of things. To the OP, no. Here in the highest of conservative high grounds, Utah (just ask them!) turnout is not what they want it to be and Trump could chomp away at their down ticket so many seem to feel it’s better not to vote at all. ---
**Author:** ![Arcite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/67e7ee/32.png) [@Arcite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Arcite)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/23 "2016-10-30T19:35:51Z")
A blogger I read has long been speculating that Trump underperforms in polls, because a lot of people don’t want to admit to a pollster, even anonymously, that they support him. I certainly hope he’s right, that there’s a slew of unexpected Trump voters on election day. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/24 "2016-10-30T20:24:54Z")
> [@pool](#): > > I don’t know if I can quantify this, its more just a gut feeling. Does anyone else feel that despite everything Trump is going to win the election after all? I’ve had this sneaky suspicion for a while that after all that’s said and done we are headed for a Trump win. Kind of like if you were about to get into a car wreck and you feel like everything is in slow motion, but you can’t do anything to stop it. With only days left in the election, it seems like the polls are getting closer and closer in favor of Trump, and a lot the polls I’ve read have sampled Democrats and women at higher rates which would put Trump even higher than they show. Now with not much more than a week before the election we’ve got the FBI investigation apparently underway and announced on the news everywhere. Everyone made jokes when he declared his presidency but he has survived against all odds and beaten all the predictions about crashing and burning. > > Does anyone else think this is going to happen? No. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/25 "2016-10-30T21:10:17Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > Except by every measurable parameter, Obama’s tenure has pretty much been the opposite of disastrous – in spite of his opposition’s obstructionism. Well, there \*is \*that $9 trillion increase in the national debt… ---
**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/26 "2016-10-30T22:25:08Z")
My understand is that Trump needs a clean sweep of all the swing states. Not likely to happen. Clinton might not enjoy a landslide victory, but she’ll win. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/27 "2016-10-30T23:05:14Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > If you’ll permit a foreigner’s perspective and an extremely anecdotal and unscientific one., I spent some time in the US in August and September. Most of it in New York State and Massachusetts, not likely places for a Trump triumph. I saw plenty of Trump signs, I saw ONE Hillary sign. Driving from NYC to Niagara, in the state where Hillary was a Senator for 8 years, nothing, zip, nada. > > I met several Trump supporters, and they did not conform to the stereotype, they were educated, professionals, one was a Doctor who was married to a **gasp** muslim. > > So, yeah I have a sneaky suspicion that Trump might win. I think his support is understated. All I see are Trump Pence signs here(Michigan), but I don’t rely on personal observation for my conclusions. Michigan will go to Clinton; all poll analysis indicates this. Trump winning the election? I’m scared of the possibility, but it is a 25% or less chance. Shockingly high, but unlikely. He can, though. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/28 "2016-10-30T23:11:59Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > All I see are Trump Pence signs here(Michigan), but I don’t rely on personal observation for my conclusions. Michigan will go to Clinton; all poll analysis indicates this. > > Trump winning the election? I’m scared of the possibility, but it is a 25% or less chance. Shockingly high, but unlikely. > > He can, though. Not to mention that there’s not even a question about New York or Massachusetts, which are already a given for Clinton wins. No one seriously disputes that. ---
**Author:** ![purplehearingaid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7bcc69/32.png) [@purplehearingaid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/purplehearingaid)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/29 "2016-10-30T23:16:48Z")
> [@Bootis](#): > > Katrina :smack: Obama wasn’t president when Katrina happen ! Bush was ! ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/30 "2016-10-30T23:18:21Z")
> [@purplehearingaid](#): > > :smack: Obama wasn’t president when Katrina happen ! Bush was ! But clearly Obama engineered it to weaken the Republicans in the 2008 election. ---
**Author:** ![pidgeon92](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/50afbb/32.png) [@pidgeon92](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pidgeon92)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/31 "2016-10-30T23:22:21Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > But clearly Obama engineered it to weaken the Republicans in the 2008 election. Yes, just as he manufactured Hurricane Matthew to push his climate change agenda. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/32 "2016-10-30T23:24:53Z")
> [@Arcite](#): > > A blogger I read has long been speculating that Trump underperforms in polls, because a lot of people don’t want to admit to a pollster, even anonymously, that they support him. I certainly hope he’s right, that there’s a slew of unexpected Trump voters on election day. This is an argument I’ve always found odd, considering the stereotypical Trump supporter is very… forthcoming about their enthusiasm. ---
**Author:** ![purplehearingaid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7bcc69/32.png) [@purplehearingaid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/purplehearingaid)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/33 "2016-10-30T23:26:46Z")
> [@pool](#): > > I don’t know if I can quantify this, its more just a gut feeling. Does anyone else feel that despite everything Trump is going to win the election after all? I’ve had this sneaky suspicion for a while that after all that’s said and done we are headed for a Trump win. Kind of like if you were about to get into a car wreck and you feel like everything is in slow motion, but you can’t do anything to stop it. With only days left in the election, it seems like the polls are getting closer and closer in favor of Trump, and a lot the polls I’ve read have sampled Democrats and women at higher rates which would put Trump even higher than they show. Now with not much more than a week before the election we’ve got the FBI investigation apparently underway and announced on the news everywhere. Everyone made jokes when he declared his presidency but he has survived against all odds and beaten all the predictions about crashing and burning. > > Does anyone else think this is going to happen? The way it looks now with the FBI going after Hillary’s with a warrant it not looking good for Hillary ! I don’t why the HELL she ran again with all her personal baggage! ---
**Author:** ![snoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@snoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snoe)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/34 "2016-10-30T23:28:53Z")
> [@Arcite](#): > > A blogger I read has long been speculating that Trump underperforms in polls, because a lot of people don’t want to admit to a pollster, even anonymously, that they support him. I certainly hope he’s right, that there’s a slew of unexpected Trump voters on election day. A counterargument to the “shy Trump voter” theory: Trump’s poll numbers in the primaries were on average slightly _higher_ than the actual vote shares he got - see [Trump Supporters Probably Aren’t Lying To Pollsters | FiveThirtyEight](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-probably-arent-lying-to-pollsters/) I suppose it’s possible that his bad behavior since the convention has created new shy voters that weren’t there during the primaries, or that shy voters are distributed in just the right states to tip the electoral college, but that seems like a real stretch of a scenario to be hopeful (your case) or worried (mine) about. More discussion of this theory [here](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/). Excerpt: > [@](#): > > **harry** : It is quite funny to think Trump supporters are shy when they all seem to take the time to vote in these stupid non-scientific online polls after debates. > > **clare.malone** : In the primaries Trump voters weren’t shy, were they? Does that change for the general? > > **harry** : Right, there is no proof they were shy in the primaries. Moreover, Trump supporters are more likely than Clinton voters to make it through the likely voter screens, indicating they are more vocal and enthusiastic in their support. The polls could still underestimate Trump, but they could also underestimate Clinton. > > **natesilver** : In the abstract, it’s a plausible theory. There’s a fair bit of evidence on the impact of social desirability bias. I just don’t know if it fits the facts of the case all that well. **Trump voters aren’t shy, for one thing**. They’re actually more demonstrative than Clinton voters, in many, many respects…The original “shy” term comes from “shy Tories,” and the idea was that British voters didn’t want to admit to voting for a party that was plodding and un-hip, or at least they were less enthusiastic about responding to pollsters. > > So that sounds more like Clinton’s voters than Trump’s, if anything. Edit: pity natesilver quote basically ninja’d by Leaper ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/35 "2016-10-30T23:29:46Z")
> [@purplehearingaid](#): > > The way it looks now with the FBI going after Hillary’s with a warrant it not looking good for Hillary ! I don’t why the HELL she ran again with all her personal baggage! Au contraire. This is starting to backfire on the Comey and the Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/36 "2016-10-30T23:39:43Z")
> [@Grrr](#): > > My understand is that Trump needs a clean sweep of all the swing states. Not likely to happen. > > Clinton might not enjoy a landslide victory, but she’ll win. Why wouldn’t she enjoy it? Seems like a pretty pleasant prospect to me. Does she just _love_ unnecessarily hard work so much that she prefers things to be as difficult as possible? ---
**Author:** ![kopek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kopek/32/337_2.png) [@kopek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kopek)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/37 "2016-10-30T23:43:12Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > And this is why Trump winning would be karma. Sabotaging like that deserves an unfortunate consequence to prevent that nonsense in the future. If I take your meaning correctly, I don’t think we could ever see anything like this again. I am pretty darn sure the Republicans will manage their primaries much as the Democrats have in the future so the best amusement we can hope for is the usual run of Third Parties. ---
**Author:** ![El\_Kabong](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/el_kabong/32/496_2.png) [@El\_Kabong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/El_Kabong)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/38 "2016-10-30T23:43:29Z")
> [@purplehearingaid](#): > > The way it looks now with the FBI going after Hillary’s with a warrant it not looking good for Hillary ! I don’t why the HELL she ran again with all her personal baggage! Quick Quiz: what do you think the FBI is ‘going after’, exactly? Please provide something a little more specific than ‘e-mails’. If you are unable to explain this coherently, you may care to consider that you are lacking essential facts on which to make an assessment. ---
**Author:** ![Arcite](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/67e7ee/32.png) [@Arcite](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Arcite)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/39 "2016-10-30T23:44:12Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > This is an argument I’ve always found odd, considering the stereotypical Trump supporter is very… forthcoming about their enthusiasm. Have you considered that there might be a lot of Trump supporters out there who are not stereotypical? The only people who know I’m voting for Trump are maybe 3-4 relatives. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2016, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/40 "2016-10-30T23:51:52Z")
However, Trump will take Tennessee. Sadly. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089.md?page=3)