# Trump going to win after all? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 30, 2016, 4:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089 "2016-10-30T04:50:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/61 "2016-11-02T14:37:03Z")
With the polls this close, whoever gets the voters out wins. I would generally say that Hillary’s campaign is probably much more organized to drag people to the polls, but looking at the number of people that get out of their houses and show up to Trump’s rallies vs. Hillary’s is staggering. That’s the one thing that gives me pause, but the machine of the Democratic party will be more focused on getting voters out than to a rally. Edge goes to Hillary, but it won’t be a landslide. ---
**Author:** ![Drunky\_Smurf](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drunky_smurf/32/449_2.png) [@Drunky\_Smurf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drunky_Smurf)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/62 "2016-11-02T15:01:09Z")
Trump better not win. Because if he does I’m going to have murder the rest of America to save us all from the Apocalypse and the 1,000 year reign of Satan. ---
**Author:** ![control-z](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/eada6e/32.png) [@control-z](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/control-z)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/63 "2016-11-02T15:05:58Z")
My prediction is the popular vote will be close, Trump might win that. Electoral vote Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/64 "2016-11-02T15:14:29Z")
It will be closer than it should be in the popular vote, but Hillary will still win. If she doesn’t, we need all to come together in a spirit of bi-partisanship and join with **Drunky Smurf**. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/65 "2016-11-02T15:28:15Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > It will be closer than it should be in the popular vote, but Hillary will still win. If she doesn’t, we need all to come together in a spirit of bi-partisanship and join with **Drunky Smurf**. > > Regards, > Shodan At least this election is uniting very diverse Dopers! ---
**Author:** ![mack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b19c9b/32.png) [@mack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mack)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/66 "2016-11-02T17:43:26Z")
> [@Clothahump](#): > > With any luck, he will. And I’m saying luck from the point of view of our society. > > It astounds me no end that after eight disastrous years of Obama, people think Hillary should be President. Leaving her felonies and habitual lying out of the mix, she would be four more years of the same disastrous bullshit, and I’m not sure the country would be able to survive it. Yes, the fix for eight years of a democratic presidency is an incurious businessman because that worked so well the last time. I think more people will vote for Trump than will admit. I don’t think it will put him over the top but I won’t be surprised. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/67 "2016-11-02T19:32:22Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > It’s one thing to say you think Obamacare is a bad idea or you favor a different fiscal policy… Quick question for people who hate Obamacare: How will repealing the ACA stop insurance companies from raising your premiums? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/68 "2016-11-02T19:36:22Z")
> [@mack](#): > > Yes, the fix for eight years of a democratic presidency is an incurious businessman because that worked so well the last time. Yes, but the last incurious businessman that was President had a record of running companies into bankruptcy. ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_T](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Gary\_T](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_T)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/69 "2016-11-02T20:00:31Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > Yes, but the last incurious businessman that was President had a record of running companies into bankruptcy. Who was that? How is that different from Trump’s record? ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/70 "2016-11-02T20:07:57Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > Quick question for people who hate Obamacare: How will repealing the ACA stop insurance companies from raising your premiums? 😕 Well for one, previously uninsured people would go to emergency rooms as their primary source of medical care. They had no insurance, so the ER would attempt to collect from the individuals, but in most cases these bills would go unpaid, and the ER and/or associated hospitals would absorb these costs. The belief was that if everyone was insured, then previously uninsured people would start using primary care physicians which are less expensive than going to the ER for a bad cold. Well that didn’t happen. > **[Emergency Room Use Stays High In Oregon Medicaid Study](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2016/10/19/498526110/emergency-room-use-stays-high-in-oregon-medicaid-study)** > > Health officials hoped giving more people health insurance would curtail their use of expensive emergency rooms for routine medical care. But data from Oregon suggest their overall ER use didn't drop. [http://obamacarefacts.com/2015/05/05/study-shows-er-visits-up-under-aca/](http://obamacarefacts.com/2015/05/05/study-shows-er-visits-up-under-aca/) [http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2016/02/18/obamacare-has-barely-made-a-dent-in-er-visits](http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2016/02/18/obamacare-has-barely-made-a-dent-in-er-visits) [http://www.fiercehealthcare.com/payer/study-medicaid-expansion-had-little-effect-er-use](http://www.fiercehealthcare.com/payer/study-medicaid-expansion-had-little-effect-er-use) So now those expensive ER visits are being absorbed by the insurance carriers, and they must raise insurance premiums for everyone to cover those costs. The ones that have made out like bandits are the ERs and associated hospitals. > **[HCA Healthcare Inc (HCA) Stock Price & News - Google Finance](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/HCA:NYSE?ei=O0YaWJG5B4_KsQH58qOABA)** > > Get the latest HCA Healthcare Inc (HCA) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions. > **[Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited (APOLLOHOSP) Stock Price & News -...](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/APOLLOHOSP:NSE?sq=hospitals&sp=4&ei=0kYaWJmSIcb9sAGL8qjYCQ)** > > Get the latest Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited (APOLLOHOSP) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions. They continue to charge high prices, but are paid now by fully insured customers without having to write-off a significant portion of their revenues from non-paying customers. ACA just shifted who absorbed the costs of healthcare for 20 million people from ER’s to the rest of the American people. ---
**Author:** ![Count\_Blucher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/c5a1d2/32.png) [@Count\_Blucher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Count_Blucher)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/71 "2016-11-02T20:32:25Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > And this is why Trump winning would be karma. Sabotaging like that deserves an unfortunate consequence to prevent that nonsense in the future. Scratch that. Reverse it. Hillary winning would be karma for the hard work she has done to make the US a better place and all the hard work that that President Obama has done to do the same. Ignoring the attempted fix by Comey would be karma. > [@Clothahump](#): > > With any luck, he will. And I’m saying luck from the point of view of our society. > > It astounds me no end that after eight disastrous years of Obama, people think Hillary should be President. The “Thank Og” collectively signed when Hillary wins will be Palpable. There might not be smog for days. I look forward to when the constant Trump lies are finally jammed back down the throats of the knuckle-draggers spouting them. Obama was the Best thing to happen since Clinton and once we have continuation assured of COMPETENT government, then we can start to root out the thieves and tax-dodgers from local government. > [@Velocity](#): > > Well, there \*is \*that $9 trillion increase in the national debt… Happens when a Bush orders up two wars and skips out when the check comes. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/72 "2016-11-02T20:47:28Z")
> [@Gary\_T](#): > > Who was that? > > How is that different from Trump’s record? George W. Bush. His businesses that failed include Arbusto and Spectrum 7 Energy, and there was a bit of a scandal with Harken Energy. Though the companies failed, Bush walked away with millions. How is failing at business and walking away with millions of dollars in investors’ money different from Trump? It isn’t, really. Except I think Bush was legitimately incompetent, and Trump is an actual con man. . ---
**Author:** ![Gary\_T](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/3ec8ea/32.png) [@Gary\_T](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gary_T)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/73 "2016-11-02T21:00:26Z")
> [@Johnny\_L.A](#): > > Except I think Bush was legitimately incompetent, and Trump is an actual con man. That’s my take as well. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/74 "2016-11-02T21:14:05Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Yeah, I don’t get this concept that the international community is laughing contemptuously at the girly man Obama and yearns for Trump to join heroic alpha male Putin on the world stage. > > International Dopers, can you shed some light? [Poll: In Canada, even Conservatives would vote Clinton over Trump](https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/04/08/poll-in-canada-even-conservatives-would-vote-clinton-over-trump.html) > [@](#): > > A general election conducted in Canada would be over before it started: Just 20 per cent picked any Republican. > > **Clinton was the preferred choice even of a plurality of Conservative voters**. Twenty-six per cent picked her, 23 per cent Trump. And even Sanders did better with Conservative voters (14 per cent) than Cruz (11 per cent), a hard-right Texas senator. Now, it’s from last April, but I don’t think Obama/Clinton have done anything that would move the needle here in Canada towards Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/75 "2016-11-02T21:19:57Z")
And here’s a more recent one from August: [Democrats would beat Donald Trump in a landslide — if only Canada joined the Union](http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-canada-us-election-1.3699457) > [@](#): > > Polls have long showed Canadians expressing greater support for Democrats than Republicans. **One recent survey gave President Barack Obama an approval rating of 80 per cent among Canadians, a score he has not managed south of the border since the first months of his presidency in 2009.** > > This affinity with the Democratic Party has continued throughout the current election campaign. Two polls conducted in recent months by Abacus Data and Mainstreet Research have shown that **73 to 80 per cent of Canadians would vote for Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee, if they had the chance.** > > **Just 15 to 20 per cent would cast their ballot for Trump.** > > Nowhere in the country would Trump be considered even a competitive candidate. **His best score in the Abacus poll came in Alberta, where just 26 per cent of voters would support him.** > > Trump is deeply unpopular in Canada. The Mainstreet survey gave him a favourability rating of just 15 per cent, with 75 per cent of Canadians saying they hold an unfavourable view of the Republican nominee. Clinton, on the other hand, scored a favourability rating of 62 per cent, against 24 per cent unfavourable. The fact that Trump could only poll at 26% in Texas North sums it up nicely. Put simply, Canuckistan likes Obama; likes Clinton; despises Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/76 "2016-11-03T02:43:10Z")
When Obama won, the Republicans decided it was their principle goal to make his administration a failure. If Trump wins, the Democrats will have to make it their principle goal to prevent his administration from being a failure. For true and loyal Americans, the good of the country comes first. The Republicans have not been acting like true and loyal Americans. The Democratic opposition must be better than that. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/77 "2016-11-03T03:42:24Z")
> [@Randolph](#): > > No, he’s not. It’s the media trying to make you keep paying attention to them. They will never, ever tell you anything to the contrary. If we had 24/7 news media outlets in 1984 they would’ve portrayed that race as a horserace up until the end to keep people watching long enough to sit through the commercials. Not that Clinton will win by a 20 point margin like Reagan did, but she will probably win 50-40 over trump. ---
**Author:** ![OldGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/3bc359/32.png) [@OldGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/78 "2016-11-03T05:25:46Z")
> [@Omar\_Little](#): > > ACA just shifted who absorbed the costs of healthcare for 20 million people from ER’s to the rest of the American people. And you truly believe that hospitals absorbed those costs rather than folding them into the rates they charge. Believe me they didn’t. They were just part of the cost structure. In some cases quite obviously. Many of them added them to the costs they charged non-insured patients. In 1999 my son went in for surgery. It was something that should have been covered by insurance but was treated as a pre-existing condition even though we’d been covered by the same insurance company since he was 5, and had been covered by some insurance company since before his birth. They sent us a copy of the bill they submitted to the insurance company even though we told them, the company wouldn’t pay it. When it didn’t, in fact pay it, they sent us a new bill for quite a bit more – and yes it was for the same things. I did an item by item comparison. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 9:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/79 "2016-11-03T09:14:50Z")
> [@Dr.Strangelove](#): > > Sam Wang and Nate Silver have been “at war” when it comes to how to interpret the polls. Wang says there’s almost no volatility, and the positioning has been locked in since the debates. Silver’s plots show a lot more variability, and you can see the difference in their predictions: Silver with ~20% Trump winning and Wang with 3%. Who to believe? Hard to say, but my instincts are with Wang. Silver has the greater interest in drumming up the horse race story, but if you simply believe the polls are noisy, you end up with a much simpler explanation for the results: the outliers are expected statistical variation and there just hasn’t been much difference with the core margin. > > Even if you side with Wang, Trump could still pull off a win, but it hardly seems likely, especially with the early results seeming to favor Clinton. It’s almost reaching the point where further news couldn’t make a difference at all. Unlikely, but still possible. I can’t comment on who is more correct without knowing more about their data and methodology. But at least they are looking at the big picture in aggregate instead of cherry-picking polls that fit a partisan narrative. ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2016, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089/80 "2016-11-03T13:25:46Z")
> [@OldGuy](#): > > And you truly believe that hospitals absorbed those costs rather than folding them into the rates they charge. Believe me they didn’t. They were just part of the cost structure. In some cases quite obviously. Many of them added them to the costs they charged non-insured patients. Absorbing these costs and folding them into the rates they charge are the **same thing**. Since ACA, the hospitals didn’t lower the rates at which they charge, even though they collect much more through most everyone being covered by insurance. They are making more profits. Conversely, the insurance companies have raised the premiums on everyone. Follow the money. The burden of taking on the costs of people who treat the ER as their primary care physician was shifted to the rest of the American people. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-going-to-win-after-all/770089.md?page=5)