# Trump In Jail Election Question **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [March 7, 2024, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-in-jail-election-question/998561 "2024-03-07T02:01:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-in-jail-election-question/998561/1 "2024-03-07T02:01:01Z")
What percentage of current Trump supporters would still vote for him if he was in prison or jail come election time? ---
**Author:** ![dolphinboy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dolphinboy/32/330_2.png) [@dolphinboy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dolphinboy)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-in-jail-election-question/998561/2 "2024-03-07T02:20:38Z")
I’m guessing 90%. I haven’t seen a poll on this. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-in-jail-election-question/998561/3 "2024-03-07T02:24:42Z")
Almost all I think. But the number who dislike both Trump and Biden, and now lean toward Trump, are probably enough to determine the result. A lot depends on details. The word jail implies less than a year of incarceration. If Trump reports on October 1 for sixty days in Rikers, voters on the fence won’t see it stopping him from doing the presidential job. So the bump for Biden could be trivial. But if Trump is made to report on November 1 for nine months, it starts looking like he wouldn’t earn his salary. One question is whether he really would be incarcerated pending appeals. Some here say yes, but I wonder if it is wishful thinking. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-in-jail-election-question/998561/4 "2024-03-07T02:37:02Z")
> [@dolphinboy](#): > > I’m guessing 90%. I haven’t seen a poll on this. Most polling concerns, to some extent, hypotheticals. But the more complex the hypothetical, thr harder to poll. And this one is complex. If Trump is convicted, he will loudly and repeatedly predict that his appeals will be successful. And every step of the appeals process will be big news. And, realistically, he may have five Supreme Court justices on his side. Also, a mixed verdict, where he gets acquitted on a few counts to appease a holdout juror, seems highly possible. Put this all together, and a lot of voters who, in the abstract, say they would never vote for a convicted felon, actually would. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-in-jail-election-question/998561/5 "2024-03-07T03:05:11Z")
It’s tough to assign a percentage given that his supporters don’t mind that he’s a rapist, commits fraud as a matter of routine in his business dealings, denigrates veterans, sides with Putin over U.S. intelligence agencies, and was the first president in our history to break the chain of peaceful transfers of power from one administration to the next. He should have already lost enough supporters to preclude any viable campaign for office but here we are. So I’ll say 80%. I think 80% of Trump supporters will continue to vote for him. Trump could actively hurt his base and they’d still vote for him. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-in-jail-election-question/998561/6 "2024-03-07T03:09:58Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > One question is whether he really would be incarcerated pending appeals. Not a chance in the world. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-in-jail-election-question/998561/7 "2024-03-07T03:23:48Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Not a chance in the world. Slight sidetrack. But what evidence is there for this? Assuming he is convicted of a serious felony why would he be released pending appeal? People are released pending appeal in cases where there is a significant chance the appeal would take longer than the sentence itself. If this is not the case (most likely in either J6 case or the MAL documents case) what reason is there to think he’d be let our pending appeal? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-in-jail-election-question/998561/8 "2024-03-07T03:27:53Z")
> [@griffin1977](#): > > what reason is there to think he’d be let our pending appeal? He’s Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-in-jail-election-question/998561/9 "2024-03-07T03:28:02Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > One question is whether he really would be incarcerated pending appeals. Not in this thread, it isn’t. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-in-jail-election-question/998561/10 "2024-03-07T03:30:08Z")
Enough would not vote for him to get elected I’ve seen various poll numbers but it’s either a small majority (53%): [https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4441241-trump-poll-convictions-deep-trouble/](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4441241-trump-poll-convictions-deep-trouble/) Or a large minority (4 in 10): [https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/05/politics/exit-polls-super-tuesday/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/05/politics/exit-polls-super-tuesday/index.html) Depending on which poll you believe. Even if it’s the lower side that is enough to mean he probably won’t get elected. The fact it’s even a reasonable possibility that a candidate for POTUS might get convicted of a felony and still get elected is batshiat. But thats the world we live in. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-in-jail-election-question/998561/11 "2024-03-07T04:06:18Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > It’s tough to assign a percentage given that his supporters don’t mind that he’s a rapist . . . Easy. 100 percent. How could anyone who doesn’t mind that care about business records falsification? I can’t believe that the difference between civil and criminal, or misdemeanor and felony, is something they would focus on. Only Trump voters who already mind that he’s a rapist will be bothered by him posting on Truth Social from Rikers Island. One polling prediction: If Trump is incarcerated, the number of shy Trumpers will skyrocket. P.S. If Trump goes to jail, he’ll probably lose. But that’s because there are real swing/uncertain voters. Everyone with his picture in their work cubicle will still vote for him. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-in-jail-election-question/998561/12 "2024-03-07T04:19:07Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > One question is whether he really would be incarcerated pending appeals. Moved this to separate thread: > [@What reason is there to think Trump would be let out pending appeal?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-reason-is-there-to-think-trump-would-be-let-out-pending-appeal/998564): > > So this has come up a couple of times. It’s been claimed in some quarters (on this board and elsewhere) that even if Trump is convicted of felony before the 2024 election he will be allowed to remain free while appealing his conviction What evidence is there to see support this assertion? What legal basis would there be for Trump to be allowed to stay out of jail while his appeals play our? AFAIK the reason behind letting some people remain free pending appeal is that when someone is given a … ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-in-jail-election-question/998561/13 "2024-03-07T15:51:36Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > What percentage of current Trump supporters What does “trump supporter” mean? Current people who usually vote an R ticket? Current people who own at least 2 pieces of MAGA merch? Of the people who believe only trump can save America, 100% of those will vote for him in Nov even if he’s in solitary confinement since April and never had a chance to campaign at all. “It’s the only way to free him so he can save us!!1!” will be their rallying cry. Of the “I usually vote R, but trump is a bit beyond the pale right now” crowd, probably half would decide he’s fully beyond the pale and sit out were trump imprisoned. The other half would say “any living R is better than the best possible D”, hold their nose, and vote for trump. Note that a righty abstaining is only half as effective at stopping trump as is that same righty voting for Biden. It’s nice to get them to abstain, but it’s much nicer to get them to vote for Biden. Even if they also end up voting a straight R ticket down-ballot. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-in-jail-election-question/998561/14 "2024-03-07T19:59:50Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > What does “trump supporter” mean? Current people who usually vote an R ticket? Current people who own at least 2 pieces of MAGA merch? People that planned to vote for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2024, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-in-jail-election-question/998561/15 "2024-03-09T02:14:36Z")
Well said. You are well named.