# Trump is in rough shape in battleground states **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 5, 2019, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090 "2019-06-05T20:12:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2019, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/41 "2019-06-07T15:41:37Z")
> [@divemaster](#): > > I’ve never contemplated voting for a Democrat. The fact that they are so beholden to abortion is a no-dealer to me. Even when pro-life Democrats make national news (Louisiana), it’s mainly to explain how other democrats want to run the DINOs out of the party. No, not really; though I’m sure you disagree, we feel that Jon Bel Edawrds received legitimate criticism for signing an atrocious piece of legislation, and the (D) by his name doesn’t make him immune to it. We’re never going to agree on abortion, but I will leave you with this. The kinds of laws that you seem to be supporting are exactly the kinds of laws that attract the very worst of the republican party you seem disconcerted with. If more self-identified conservatives would simply nuance their position a little, that would help them reclaim their party. But until then, I hate to say it, but you’re stuck with Trump. Donald Trump is your guy and he represents your politics, whether you want to admit it or not. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2019, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/42 "2019-06-07T16:04:56Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > The “my neighbors are terrible people when my preferred candidate does not win” thinking has always struck me as silly. As a general rule I would agree with you. To think this way in all cases would be silly. But surely you would agree that it depends on the candidates? As an extreme example, if I support a run of the mill centrist candidate and my neighbors support Jeffrey Dahmer, then I’m going to think that my neighbors are terrible people. For something closer to the real world; if my neighbors’ preferred candidate supports a policy of separating families as a way of discouraging asylum seekers, then I’m not going to think very highly of those neighbors. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2019, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/43 "2019-06-07T16:13:52Z")
> [@davidm](#): > > For something closer to the real world; if my neighbors’ preferred candidate supports a policy of separating families as a way of discouraging asylum seekers, then I’m not going to think very highly of those neighbors. Right. When there are so many options, if they continue support a candidate/official who bragged about sexual assault and violating the consent of women, then I’m not going to think that they really value women and girls very highly. If they continue to support a candidate/official who spent years spreading evidence-free racist conspiracy theories, then I’m going to assume they’re, at best, tolerant of racism. If they continue to support a candidate/official who flippantly calls for their political opponents to be jailed, then I’m going to assume they don’t put much value on a serious and fair justice system. And so on. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2019, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/44 "2019-06-07T16:28:28Z")
> [@Kent\_Clark](#): > > Just this afternoon I had an interesting discussion on FB with a friend who flatly stated she WILL NOT vote for Joe Biden because she doesn’t trust his position on abortion rights. I’m waiting to hear back from her on what she will do if her choice comes down to Biden v. Trump v. third-party. An update, my friend (and I really do consider her to be a friend) posted her reply that she will be single-issue in 2020, and she wants an alternative to both Trump and Biden. I suggested she go Libertarian. She’ll get her pro-choice candidate (although she won’t get public funding for any healthcare) and where she lives, a big Libertarian turnout will probably hurt Trump more than Biden. ---
**Author:** ![divemaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/divemaster/32/78_2.png) [@divemaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/divemaster)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2019, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/45 "2019-06-07T16:40:26Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > I’d like to see a Democrat say something along the lines of, “While I believe that abortion should be safe and legal, there is something to be said about the belief that a fetus is not simply a ball of cells, and we should pursue every policy we can to minimize the number of abortions performed in this country. Furthermore, legislation regarding the legality of abortion should be tailored such that when medical professionals have determined that an otherwise healthy fetus that has developed to the point of possessing [distinctly human brain activity](http://www.2think.org/abortion.shtml), that pose no threat to the mother’s health, such human life should be protected.” > > Is that a Democrat you could vote for? Is that a Democrat that Democrats would vote for? Thank you for your response. To answer your question; yes, I could vote for such a Democrat…against Trump. But in all honesty, up until the Republican Party entered into bizarro world 3 years ago, any “mainstream” Republican would get my vote because I will agree with them on my two main issues (the other being gun rights). Especially with the Democrats taking harder and harder lines and litmus tests on these two issues. Trump infuriates me, as a conservative Evangelical-style Republican. I can not vote for him; I will not vote for him. The last two or three local elections I did not vote for the Republican, despite their pro-life and pro-gun _bona fides_. (That’s a separate issue and it relates almost 100% to the current Republican Party platform on immigration.) But aside from my opinion of Trump as (pick whatever adjectives you want), a Democrat candidate has to EARN my vote with a position on my two main issues I can look at myself in the mirror and vote for. Used to be there \*were \*Democrats who had A ratings from the NRA, and who had pro-life voting records. Where are they now? Today’s Democrats obviously don’t want my vote. They don’t get it by default because the other guy is worse. I vote my conscience. I know this pisses a lot of people off, but that’s where I’m at. ---
**Author:** ![divemaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/divemaster/32/78_2.png) [@divemaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/divemaster)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2019, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/46 "2019-06-07T16:53:49Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Donald Trump is your guy and he represents your politics, whether you want to admit it or not. No he does not. He represents my PARTY (likely my soon to be former Party), but he does NOT represent my politics. You don’t know my politics, **asahi** , except what I’ve disclosed in these few posts here. My issues with Trump defy simple boxes. I can’t even begin to make a list. Even on some issues that I might happen to “agree” with him on…what am I really agreeing with? When the man changes his mind from year to year; from month to month; from day to day. How can I trust him to represent my interests when I don’t trust him to have any thought-out political positions or moral center to develop them? For what it’s worth, I have had these conversations with my family. My sister, my mom, my 18-year-old niece. Heck, even my wife (who is an immigrant!). They all voted for Trump. I’ve told them the are being misled. I’ve told them they are being conned. I’ve told them that one day they will wake up and realize who this man really is, and they will be disappointed. I’m especially concerned about my niece, as when you are that age and your heroes fail you, it can be quite devastating. So I’ve done my part to try to convince them not to vote for Trump. But that’s a long shot away from saying we’re all going to vote for some “typical” pro-abortion Democrat. That’s just not going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2019, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/47 "2019-06-07T16:56:36Z")
> [@divemaster](#): > > No he does not. He represents my PARTY (likely my soon to be former Party), but he does NOT represent my politics. You don’t know my politics, **asahi** , except what I’ve disclosed in these few posts here. My issues with Trump defy simple boxes. I can’t even begin to make a list. Even on some issues that I might happen to “agree” with him on…what am I really agreeing with? When the man changes his mind from year to year; from month to month; from day to day. How can I trust him to represent my interests when I don’t trust him to have any thought-out political positions or moral center to develop them? > > For what it’s worth, I have had these conversations with my family. My sister, my mom, my 18-year-old niece. Heck, even my wife (who is an immigrant!). They all voted for Trump. I’ve told them the are being misled. I’ve told them they are being conned. I’ve told them that one day they will wake up and realize who this man really is, and they will be disappointed. I’m especially concerned about my niece, as when you are that age and your heroes fail you, it can be quite devastating. > > So I’ve done my part to try to convince them not to vote for Trump. But that’s a long shot away from saying we’re all going to vote for some “typical” pro-abortion Democrat. That’s just not going to happen. The proven way to reduce abortions is a combination of comprehensive sex education and widespread availability of contraception – i.e. reduce the demand for abortions (unwanted pregnancies). One party is actually pushing for those policies, while the other party generally fights against them. ---
**Author:** ![divemaster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/divemaster/32/78_2.png) [@divemaster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/divemaster)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2019, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/48 "2019-06-07T17:21:36Z")
> [@divemaster](#): > > But Biden seems weak in character, and I expect any day that someone from his team will say he “misspoke” and he indeed is all-in for government-funded abortions. > > The jury is still out for me, but at least now he has my attention. Well, that lasted about as long as I thought it would. “Biden reverses course. Democratic candidate no longer supports Hyde Amendment…” (from my phone’s Yahoo news feed). “…bowing to pressure…and abandoning a long and allegedly deeply held point of personal conviction.” (from my phone’s CNN news feed) ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2019, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/49 "2019-06-07T18:41:09Z")
> [@divemaster](#): > > No he does not. He represents my PARTY (likely my soon to be former Party), but he does NOT represent my politics. I understand what you’re saying, that you disagree with Trump on almost everything else, which is laudable. However… > [@divemaster](#): > > You don’t know my politics, **asahi** , except what I’ve disclosed in these few posts here. My issues with Trump defy simple boxes. You are effectively allowing your objection on one issue to effectively cancel out all of your other positions. You can join a third party if you want, but that probably won’t help much in terms of keeping Trump out of office. There’s a reason that Trump and the GOP are taking such an extreme, uncompromising, and frankly unreasonable position on abortion. It attracts deplorable people. I commend you for not joining them, but I think a very serious problem this country has - and I think I can say this with regard to some on the left as well - is that ideological purity has blinded us. The only way a society can have good things is to allow some space for compromise. Without that, then we lose the ability to operate in good faith. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2019, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/50 "2019-06-07T18:43:58Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > The only way a society can have good things is to allow some space for compromise. Without that, then we lose the ability to operate in good faith. There’s a whole bunch of people who have not been operating in good faith for a long time now; they aren’t gonna want to change eh. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2019, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/51 "2019-06-07T20:01:58Z")
> [@divemaster](#): > > Trump infuriates me, as a conservative Evangelical-style Republican. I can not vote for him; I will not vote for him. You’re in a potential swing state. A vote for a third-party candidate _ **is** _ a vote for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2019, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/52 "2019-06-07T20:08:32Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > There’s a whole bunch of people who have not been operating in good faith for a long time now; they aren’t gonna want to change eh. Very true. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2019, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/53 "2019-06-07T20:13:19Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > You can join a third party if you want, but that probably won’t help much in terms of keeping Trump out of office. > [@Akaj](#): > > You’re in a potential swing state. A vote for a third-party candidate _ **is** _ a vote for Trump. Actually, voting third-party is like either not voting or like voting 1/2 for both major parties. It’s only half as effective at removing the offending candidate as voting for the other major party would be, but it is not _equally_ as effective at keeping the odious person in power as actually voting for him would be. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2019, 9:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/54 "2019-06-07T21:11:47Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > Actually, voting third-party is like either not voting or like voting 1/2 for both major parties. It’s only half as effective at removing the offending candidate as voting for the other major party would be, but it is not _equally_ as effective at keeping the odious person in power as actually voting for him would be. Vote for Schrödinger’s cat in 2020? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2019, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/55 "2019-06-07T23:55:47Z")
> [@divemaster](#): > > Well, that lasted about as long as I thought it would. > > “Biden reverses course. Democratic candidate no longer supports Hyde Amendment…” > > (from my phone’s Yahoo news feed). > > “…bowing to pressure…and abandoning a long and allegedly deeply held point of personal conviction.” > > (from my phone’s CNN news feed) He’s a politician, trying to win the Dem nomination in a time where the Dem party has moved a long ways to the left. He’s doing the amoral, politically-savvy thing. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2019, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/56 "2019-06-08T00:18:29Z")
The Biden abortion stuff is interesting in light of the argument I have been making on the abortion threads. > [@Unreconstructed\_Man](#): > > Unfortunately, the Democrats never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity, and there’s a good chance they’ll nominate someone like Warren because it’s “her turn” rather than someone who can simply connect to people on a gut level like Gabbard or Buttigieg. My first sighting this season of a Gabbard supporter! I knew there must be some out there somewhere, but I had not seen any until this moment. It’s as exciting as I expected–and as hilarious. > [@BobLibDem](#): > > My humble disjointed opinions: Republicans always come home and they always vote. Elections turn on how many Democrats turn out. If Roe v Wade is overturned or appears in imminent danger, this will galvanize Democrats to come out and vote. We can’t be afraid of impeachment riling up Republicans, they’re always riled up anyway and are reliable voters. 2016 was an aberration, Democrats had the misfortune of nominating someone that too many people found totally unlikable. Not Donald is the unlikable one, the “will not vote for him under any circumstance” numbers are killers. > > I think the Dems take back PA, MI, WI, and IA. Ohio and Florida will be tough. Both seem to be trending redder. I don’t see DJT flipping any states. The tight MN race in 2016 was an aberration. Agreed. Minnesota has added my wife and me to its electorate since 2016. We are not letting him win, I promise! But yeah: the 55% “will not vote for him under any circumstance” are not changing their minds. Regardless of the circumstance. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2019, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/57 "2019-06-08T00:28:30Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > Actually, voting third-party is like either not voting or like voting 1/2 for both major parties. It’s only half as effective at removing the offending candidate as voting for the other major party would be, but it is not _equally_ as effective at keeping the odious person in power as actually voting for him would be. Thank you! This trope has always irked me for its innumeracy. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2019, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/58 "2019-06-08T01:04:19Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > … yeah: the 55% “will not vote for him under any circumstance” are not changing their minds. Regardless of the circumstance. About 74% of eligible voters didn’t vote for him last time. Of course about 74% of eligible voters didn’t vote for Clinton. He won with only 26.3% of all eligible voters and she lost with 26.5% of them. Not bothering to vote won the popularity contest by far at nearly 46%. Will not vote for him under any circumstance is not enough. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2019, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/59 "2019-06-08T01:17:48Z")
Speaking of innumeracy… ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 8, 2019, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/60 "2019-06-08T02:00:40Z")
Yes, I was in fact speaking of innumeracy. Thinking that 55% of possible voters saying they are going to not vote for a candidate is the same as 55% saying they are going to vote for the Democratic candidate is a serious lack of understanding the numbers. Let’s actually look at [the poll itself.](https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1205a3Trump2020.pdf) > [@](#): > > … 2020 may not be as much of a slam-dunk for the Democrats as some of his ratings would suggest. One example: Among those who rule Trump out, just 29 percent say they’ll definitely support his eventual Democratic opponent. Two thirds, instead, say they’re waiting to see who that is. > > Also, while more than half say they’ll definitely not support Trump, 42 percent of Americans overall, and 45 percent of registered voters, say they’d at least consider him for a second term. Trump won 46.1 percent of the vote to Hillary Clinton’s 48.2 percent in 2016 … > > … In the Midwest – the region where he won the presidency – 54 percent say they’d definitely or possibly support him for re-election That last bit is particularly scary and on point for this thread. His support is highest in the regions a D cannot again lose and win the election. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090.md?page=4)