# Trump is in rough shape in battleground states **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 5, 2019, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090 "2019-06-05T20:12:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/101 "2019-06-18T14:41:02Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > But who did they endorse in 2016? A newspaper changing its endorsement is significant. A newspaper endorsing the same party it did last cycle doesn’t mean anything. They endorsed Hillary Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/102 "2019-06-18T14:46:56Z")
That’s what I expected. Going from not endorsing Trump to not endorsing Trump is dog-bites-man. Trump was obviously able to win Florida before without this paper’s endorsement, so there’s no reason he couldn’t do it again. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/103 "2019-06-18T14:47:50Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > But who did they endorse in 2016? A newspaper changing its endorsement is significant. A newspaper endorsing the same party it did last cycle doesn’t mean anything. > [@D\_Anconia](#): > > They endorsed Hillary Clinton. Now the question that makes the little duck swing down from the rafters with a Ben Franklin in its beak: Who’d they endorse in the cycle before that? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/104 "2019-06-18T14:55:48Z")
Before that GOPs. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/105 "2019-06-18T15:04:42Z")
Aha. So they are Never Trumpers. Good for them. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/106 "2019-06-18T15:36:43Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I’m guessing it’s not states like Wyoming, but states that may usually be fairly safe ‘red’ like Arizona, which is why they’re alarmed. During the 2016 campaign the Democrats in Arizona were all atwitter with the thought that Clinton might – just might – carry the state. Made me laugh my ass off but her campaign bought it to the point of her showing up here two (maybe three) times in the late stages of the campaign.\* With 20/20 hindsight, the time would have been better spent in Wisconsin or Michigan. \*Both national and local Dems might have been hoping for a coat tail effect. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/107 "2019-06-18T15:37:43Z")
That’s exactly who I’m voting for! ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/108 "2019-06-18T15:40:13Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > During the 2016 campaign the Democrats in Arizona were all atwitter with the thought that Clinton might – just might – carry the state. Made me laugh my ass off but her campaign bought it to the point of her showing up here two (maybe three) times in the late stages of the campaign.\* With 20/20 hindsight, the time would have been better spent in Wisconsin or Michigan. > > \*Both national and local Dems might have been hoping for a coat tail effect. So many states are so close that it’s difficult to predict with certainty where the Dems’ efforts should be focused. But I’m thinking that Arizona could well be on its way to emulating Colorado and Nevada. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/109 "2019-06-18T16:14:39Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Before that GOPs. Since Lyndon Johnson. So they are supporters of actual conservatives and not this new idiotic Republican Party. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/110 "2019-06-18T16:23:47Z")
My point is, Trump won in 2016. If things remain the same in 2020 as they were in 2016, then Trump will win again. Yes, Trump is highly unpopular. Yes, this newspaper is endorsing Not-Trump. But both of those things are the same as they were in 2016. If you want to show signs of Trump’s weakness, then you have to show things that are different from 2016. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/111 "2019-06-18T16:30:18Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > My point is, Trump won in 2016. If things remain the same in 2020 as they were in 2016, then Trump will win again. Yes, Trump is highly unpopular. Yes, this newspaper is endorsing Not-Trump. But both of those things are the same as they were in 2016. If you want to show signs of Trump’s weakness, then you have to show things that are different from 2016. And my point is that a conservative publication with decades of endorsing conservatives is literally endorsing anyone except the “Republican” party leader. Not the Democrat like last time. They are endorsing anyone else. The party is not conservative. Or sane. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/112 "2019-06-18T16:32:30Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > But who did they endorse in 2016? Clinton. Romney in 2012. Trump is holding this rally in the same city where Nixon declared “I am not a crook”. Just for comparison. Also, btw, the city owns the arena, but the DeVos family (you’ve heard of them) owns the naming rights contract and the basketball team. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/113 "2019-06-18T17:48:39Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > My point is, Trump won in 2016. If things remain the same in 2020 as they were in 2016, then Trump will win again. Yes, Trump is highly unpopular. Yes, this newspaper is endorsing Not-Trump. But both of those things are the same as they were in 2016. If you want to show signs of Trump’s weakness, then you have to show things that are different from 2016. People born around the millennium became eligible to vote. People born a few years earlier became much more interested in voting. Consistent voters born before WWII died. Educated center-right voters got to see the reality of a Trump presidency, contrasted with their 2016 hope that he would settle down and let GOP stalwarts handle things while he took on a more ceremonial role. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/114 "2019-06-18T18:25:43Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > That’s what I expected. Going from not endorsing Trump to not endorsing Trump is dog-bites-man. Trump was obviously able to win Florida before without this paper’s endorsement, so there’s no reason he couldn’t do it again. That wasn’t the newspaper’s point. Their point was, Donald Trump is in Orlando today. And today the newspaper welcomed Donald Trump by putting a big, fat headline on their front page that says, 'DON’T VOTE FOR THIS MAN! Vote for anyone else, but not him." I’m not a big fan of front-page editorials on newspapers, but if you’re going to do one, that’s the way to do it. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/115 "2019-06-18T19:17:21Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > People born around the millennium became eligible to vote. > > People born a few years earlier became much more interested in voting. > > Consistent voters born before WWII died. > > Educated center-right voters got to see the reality of a Trump presidency, contrasted with their 2016 hope that he would settle down and let GOP stalwarts handle things while he took on a more ceremonial role. Specifically, there will be about 10 million fewer older voters in '20, an age group with a turnout rate of around 70% and one which gave Trump some majority of their votes. On the other side of the equation are 16 million newly eligible young or immigrant voters whose turnout may be low (40%ish?) but who favor that Not Donald Trump guy by about 35 points. Donald needs to squeeze out more votes from a numerically declining base or he needs converts from the middle and/or left. And even those won’t be enough if Dem turnout increases at the rate it did in the midterms compared to 2014. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/116 "2019-06-18T19:46:32Z")
[The Proud Boys](https://www.orlandosentinel.com/politics/os-ne-trump-orlando-live-updates-20190618-bai5ilktjjf4joxxue5hdnlk34-story.html) and their white power signs have shown up at his rally, chanting “Pinochet was right,” and “Roger Stone did nothing wrong." Also, unsurprisingly, > [@](#): > > Orlando police said they stopped an armed person at the rally who had a valid concealed carry license. > > “He was advised that he would not be able to enter the ticketed event area,” an OPD spokesman said. > > It’s unclear if that person is the same man who News 6-WKMG captured on video with what appeared to be an AR-15 in his backpack being questioned by Secret Service agents. > > The man was wearing a belt with multiple magazines attached, News 6 reported. Heavy rain is dampening the festivities. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/117 "2019-06-18T20:14:06Z")
[No surprise, but](https://www.clickorlando.com/news/politics/updates-heres-whats-happening-at-the-trump-rally-in-orlando) > [@](#): > > Thirty-three year old Alex Fuentes wore a shirt that said “Make Democrats cry again.” ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/118 "2019-06-18T20:18:23Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > So many states are so close that i **t’s difficult to predict with certainty where the Dems’ efforts should be focused.** But I’m thinking that Arizona could well be on its way to emulating Colorado and Nevada. Bolding above is mine. No, it is not difficult to know where Dems’ efforts should be focused. **The key to winning in 2020 is to keep all the states HRC won in 2016 and focus on bringing back Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and possibly Ohio.** The math is very simple. I don’t understand why this is so tough for people to grasp. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/119 "2019-06-18T20:25:16Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Bolding above is mine. > > No, it is not difficult to know where Dems’ efforts should be focused. > > **The key to winning in 2020 is to keep all the states HRC won in 2016 and focus on bringing back Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and possibly Ohio.** > > The math is very simple. I don’t understand why this is so tough for people to grasp. I happen to agree with this but it’s far from a slam dunk. The Rust Belt states and their net 70,000 vote deficit in '16 certainly \*appear \*to be no-brainers to pursue but those are also the states where demographics are moving slightly away from Democrats instead of versa-vicey. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2019, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/120 "2019-06-18T21:06:02Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > I happen to agree with this but it’s far from a slam dunk. The Rust Belt states and their net 70,000 vote deficit in '16 certainly \*appear \*to be no-brainers to pursue but those are also the states where demographics are moving slightly away from Democrats instead of versa-vicey. Of course it isn’t a slam dunk, I never said it was. And the demographics may be moving slightly away from the Dems, but these states are crucial to the D nominee winning in 2020. Crucial, as in I will say unequivocally that if the Democratic nominee fails to carry all three of these states - Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania - Trump will be reelected. I am 100% certain of this. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090.md?page=7)