# Trump is in rough shape in battleground states **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 5, 2019, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090 "2019-06-05T20:12:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2019, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/141 "2019-06-20T04:28:59Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Florida is hardly “fantasy” - it’s definitely in play and Democrats should compete for it. I don’t disagree that WI, PA, MI, and OH are where we should start, but I hope we don’t write off Iowa, Arizona, or Florida. They aren’t fantasies if the Democrats can connect with voters… Fine, saying it is a fantasy that the Dems could win FL or AZ is overstating things. (I actually think Iowa is more likely than either of those because of how much DJT’s tariffs are hurting farmers.) Nevertheless, WI, PA and MI are key to the Democrats winning. They have concerns about similar issues and are in many ways natural D constituencies. Also, as I mentioned in another thread, all three of those states have elected Democrats to statewide offices as recently as 2018. The same cannot be said about Florida and the 2018 election indicates to me at least movement _away_ from the Democrats. If Florida goes to the Democrat it will be because there is a bigger movement away from the GOP on a national scale. Assuming the Democrats can carry the states HRC carried, adding FL to that list still comes up short in the EC. It is a heavier lift in my opinion than getting WI, PA and MI back in the D column. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2019, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/142 "2019-06-20T04:41:09Z")
Kolak, it’s true that like Ohio, Florida has been a red-shifting “swing state” in recent cycles. But I think it’s also a special case because of the reenfranchisement of over a million felons. I don’t think national Democrats should talk too much about this, because it is awkward to expect felons to help us win, but it could potentially be a real game-changer. > [@Chronos](#): > > Whereas I still think that Obama’s 50-state strategy was the right move. Obviously he didn’t spend equal time on all 50 states, but he made an effort to compete in all of them Cite for this? I support an expanded map, but definitely NOT a 50 state strategy. If the 2020 Democratic nominee campaigns in Wyoming or Oklahoma (or, for that matter, in New York or California), I will be livid. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2019, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/143 "2019-06-20T04:45:52Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Kolak, it’s true that like Ohio, Florida has been a red-shifting “swing state” in recent cycles. But I think it’s also a special case because of the reenfranchisement of over a million felons. I don’t think national Democrats should talk too much about this, because it is awkward to expect felons to help us win, but it could potentially be a real game-changer… Good point. I had forgotten about that. But it does require a strong effort to get those people registered and making sure they get to the polls come Election Day. I also fully expect the GOP and their allies to throw up road blocks to this in every way possible. So, I’m not ready to be optimistic yet. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2019, 7:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/144 "2019-06-20T07:10:10Z")
Right, but we should at least make a strong push there (particularly in terms of registration drives). If it falls flat because of those roadblocks, we can reevaluate next time. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2019, 12:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/145 "2019-06-20T12:41:57Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **DSeid** : > > Trump will likely have more money to throw around than any D will… How do you figure? Clinton raised 50% more than Trump. Do you think that none of the current candidates are even close to Clinton’s fundraising ability? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2019, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/146 "2019-06-20T13:40:10Z")
They are, but Trump’s resources will be vastly greater. Not only is he the only horse Putin, Adelson, the Saudis, etc. can bet on, but he has all of the government’s money available to him too. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2019, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/147 "2019-06-20T14:49:01Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Kolak, it’s true that like Ohio, Florida has been a red-shifting “swing state” in recent cycles. But I think it’s also a special case because of the reenfranchisement of over a million felons. I don’t think national Democrats should talk too much about this, because it is awkward to expect felons to help us win, but it could potentially be a real game-changer… There’s no real reason to think felons will vote Democrat other than they are disproportionately black people. They’ll probably vote along normal racial/education/wealth lines and a good portion are still uneducated white men. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they end up having a very low turnout rate compared to the population at large. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2019, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/148 "2019-06-20T14:49:26Z")
As to FL … I wouldn’t rely on reenfranchised felons to be a high turnout demographic. Funds available? Dems will be spending lots fighting each other for a while, [meanwhile](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/us/politics/trump-fundraising-2020.html) > [@NYT](#): > > President Trump’s campaign announced Wednesday that he had raised $24.8 million over 24 hours as he kicked off his re-election bid, an enormous haul that punctuates the financial advantage he is expected to enjoy over his Democratic challengers in 2020 … > > … Democratic strategists have fretted for months that Mr. Trump will spend 2019 building up a large war chest while the 23 Democrats running for president raise far smaller sums and then use that money to bludgeon one another in the primary campaign. > > Mr. Trump had already raised nearly $100 million for his re-election effort by the end of March … As an incumbent president, Mr. Trump also has the advantage of raising larger sums of money through his party. … ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2019, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/149 "2019-06-20T14:59:34Z")
Felons also know who wants them to vote and who doesn’t. “The Republicans are afraid of your votes” is a pretty good motivation both to vote, and to vote against the Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2019, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/150 "2019-06-20T15:04:17Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > As to FL … I wouldn’t rely on reenfranchised felons to be a high turnout demographic. They don’t need to be. They are 1.4 million, going from 0% turnout to whatever low turnout they end up being. Even if that’s only like 25%, that’s a lot of new voters added to the system. As for fundraising, I do believe Trump will outraise his opponent. But even in a regular cycle, I don’t think that’s all that important. I agree with David Brooks’s take: fundraising is crucial in downballot races, but the presidential race gets so much free attention, and even the outspent candidate will have more than enough funds to do what they need to do–any more is just “bouncing the rubble”. And of course, this is not a normal cycle. All the money in the world is just putting lipstick on a pig: it’s not going to convince the people who see Trump for what he is that he is something else. Not after four years of being president. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2019, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/151 "2019-06-20T15:19:02Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > They don’t need to be. They are 1.4 million, going from 0% turnout to whatever low turnout they end up being. Even if that’s only like 25%, that’s a lot of new voters added to the system. [Why letting ex-felons vote probably won’t swing Florida](https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/11/2/18049510/felon-voting-rights-amendment-4-florida) > [@](#): > > One thing that limits the electoral impact of restoring ex-felons’ voting rights is that they turn out at particularly low rates. To demonstrate this, we first look to the population of ex-felons who were restored the right to vote under Crist and calculate what share voted in 2016. We find that just 16 percent of black and 12 percent of nonblack ex-felons voted. > […] > Florida’s Democrats would stand to gain some votes by extending the franchise, but the net gain of 48,000 votes is only about one-quarter of 1 percent of the more than 15 million people of voting age in Florida. Such evidence cannot support the stronger claim that Trump would have lost the state in 2016 but for criminal disenfranchisement. It might make some difference but I wouldn’t pin too much on it. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2019, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/152 "2019-06-20T16:46:05Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > [Why letting ex-felons vote probably won’t swing Florida](https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/11/2/18049510/felon-voting-rights-amendment-4-florida) > > > [@](#): > > > > One thing that limits the electoral impact of restoring ex-felons’ voting rights is that they turn out at particularly low rates. To demonstrate this, we first look to the population of ex-felons who were restored the right to vote under Crist and calculate what share voted in 2016. We find that just 16 percent of black and 12 percent of nonblack ex-felons voted. > > […] > > Florida’s Democrats would stand to gain some votes by extending the franchise, but **the net gain of 48,000 votes is only about one-quarter of 1 percent of the more than 15 million people of voting age in Florida.** Such evidence cannot support the stronger claim that Trump would have lost the state in 2016 but for criminal disenfranchisement. Nitpick: it’s closer to HALF of one percent of the actual 2016 voter turnout (9.1M). ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2019, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/153 "2019-06-20T17:16:16Z")
Al Gore certainly would take that in a heartbeat. There have been a number of other really close races in the state as well, which always seem to go the GOP’s way. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2019, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/154 "2019-06-20T22:37:50Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > If the 2020 Democratic nominee campaigns in Wyoming or Oklahoma (or, for that matter, in New York or California), I will be livid. The nominee will have to go to New York and California, because that’s where the money is. One of the many mistakes Hillary’s campaign made was spending _too much_ time there. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2019, 7:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090/155 "2019-06-21T07:32:59Z")
I didn’t say “fundraises”, I said “campaigns”. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-is-in-rough-shape-in-battleground-states/835090.md?page=7)