Not DJT!
Initial reaction from the TPP countries: “TPP countries welcome Trump’s interest in joining deal, but renegotiation? Forget about it.”
The 11 countries that signed the new TPP went through a substantial round of negotiations after the US pulled out. Now that they’ve reached a final version, they’re not inclined to re-open it.
In another article (can’t find it at the moment), the point was made that in those post-US negotiations, they dropped several provisions that were inserted in the previous version at the request of the US.
So, the deal now is probably less favourable to the US, and there’s no interest in re-opening it.
It’s almost as if the best way to get what you want is to stay in the room, keep negotiating, be patient, and work on building up relations, rather than kicking over the table and leaving in a huff.
The art of the deal, indeed.
If Trump had been interested in the TPP, surely he would have attended the trade oriented Summit of the Americas a few days ago.
Instead, he’s the first president since the summit was created in 1994 to blow it off.
One thing that I was particularly interested in was the Investor State Dispute mechanism - potentially a very dangerous thing for small minnow countries negotiating with a 300kg gorilla. There were some nice developments on that front after the US pulled out, and although ISDS is still in the revised TPP, it looks like New Zealand found a get out of jail free card
There are still things I’m not particularly thrilled about - the fact that ISDS is still there at all, even though the Foreign Affairs department is swearing up and down that it won’t be a danger and only one ISDS claim has ever been brought against Australia (one too many IMO, but at least the complaining company, Philip Morris, got kicked to the curb pretty thouroughly).
However, ISDS is much less of an issue in a TPP that doesn’t involve America, since none of the countries left in the TPP are home to companies large enough to outspend my country in a legal case.
I agree that the original TPP was probably a lot better of a deal for the US than trying to enter the current one will be, and I’m perpetually amazed that Trump’s minions buy the “other countries are stiffing us on trade deals” story. It’s not actually credible that in negotiating between the world’s largest economy and a bunch of others that are a quarter or a tenth the size, that the big player would end up hard done by. That’s not how negotiating works, in the real world. The larger entity always gets a better deal than the smaller entity, unless the larger entity is really staggeringly incompetent…
…hmm. Maybe now **is **the time to start negotiating a trade deal with the USA
I don’t know how anyone could negotiate with Trump.
He can’t hold to any agreement.
Not even his own party in congress can negotiate with him - even when they would sacrifice heavily just to get a bill passed.
The guy who actually wrote The Art of the Deal could probably do better.
During the campaign it was possible to think that he knew his simplistic trade plans wouldn’t work, but he was making it simple for his marks, I mean his base.
But now it seems he is as stupid as his marks. Tariffs on China? The Chinese can put tariffs up that hurt his base the most. TPP? Since the signatories know he’s desperate, he is sure to not get a good deal.
All this winning.
Did he ever say why he thought the TPP was such a bad deal, indeed one of the worst in American history? I have the impression his criticism as well as that of the Iran nuclear deal was big on condemnation but very light on specifics. The difference seems to be he could do something about the TPP without involving congress (so he did) but not the Iran deal (so he didn’t), but beyond that I don’t see a lot of serious concerns about the details of either.
Hell I don’t even remember what my complaints were. I’m generally quite in favor of not having governments interfere with trade, but I recall not being all that down with TPP.
I can relate. People who I trust and admire love it, others equally blessed hate it. As a boor of little brain, it confuses me. Usually, I have to pick between arguments advanced by the “sane but political” and fever swamp reptiles.
Clinton wanted modifications before finalizing it. But, at that time it wasn’t finalized and negotiations could have continued.
Subsequent to Trump, the TPP11 dumped over 20 US-favorable points, thus forming what they have since finalized.
I see zero reason to believe Trump could manage to get back to where we were before Trump. His international relations and trade skills seem pretty much absent.
I guess Trump has made some noises recently that he may be rethinking the TPP. Ironically, according to this article, the other nations are pretty tepid about the US possibly joining at this stage.
I don’t suppose it could happen, but I would like to see the other signatories say “We’ll just wait until America has a leader before renegotiating this trade agreement.”
This thread should be re-named. Trump didn’t kill the TPP. He just pulled the US out of it.
Do you have a good link to the details of exactly what got dropped before finalizing the deal? I’ve really only seen bits and pieces of analysis.
Australian farmers are apparently happy about the current situation
The main thing that got dropped was the intellectual property provisions. Canada tried to get further concessions but was told to fuck off by the rest of the TPP bloc.
I believe that’s the subtext behind the current ambivalence. I can’t imagine that any of the TPP nations are looking at the current NAFTA negotiations and thinking, “Yeah, I want to get in on that.”
TPP-xUSA (CPTPP or TPP11) is not only still “the third biggest trade bloc in the world” but likely to get bigger since UK-post_Brexit wants in. Obama’s negotiators drove a tough bargain, so TPP-xUSA has dropped or modified 22 provisions that only USA wanted. It was estimated that TPP would lead to a 9% increase in U.S. exports! And all the while, the strategic interests of the U.S. would have been advanced by forming a counterweight to China’s power. (IIRC, China is now participating in joint meetings with TPP11 leaders!) TPP should have gone down in history as a great testament to Obama’s genius. Instead it will go down in history as just another blunder by the horrid sub-human now sitting in the Oval Office.
And now the Art of the Deal man (who is really really smart), having left TPP in a brat’s tantrum, wants back in! Who needs parody shows like Yes Minister or Veep when we have this clown?
Funny names heaping scorn on The Art of the Deal are going to be all the rage. Art of the Steal is already taken, so what will be the top contenders? The Wart on the Shill? The Heart of the Heel? Would it be OK to reverse the rhymes and go with something like The Squeal of the Fart?
The Arsehole Ordeal has a nice ring to it