# Trump may be near irreversible collapse. Is multi-candidate free for all near? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 26, 2016, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408 "2016-06-26T15:06:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/1 "2016-06-26T15:06:46Z")
> **[In new poll, support for Trump has plunged, giving Clinton a double-digit lead](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-new-poll-support-for-trump-plunges-giving-clinton-a-double-digit-lead/2016/06/25/0565bef6-3a31-11e6-a254-2b336e293a3c_story.html)** > > Half are anxious about a Clinton presidency; some with reservations about Trump say they will vote for him anyway. It’s only one poll, and it’s a produced in part by an organization that is in a de facto war with the candidate in question. However, it is also consistent with the nearly month-long barrage of negative press, so it would seem to have surface validity. Assuming Trump collapses, and given the fact that the #neverTrump movement is divided and confused, could we be seeing much more attention given to the Johnson/Weld campaign? And if Johnson/Weld enter the race, could we also see Jill Stein and, gulp, Bernie Sanders enter as a fourth party? ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/2 "2016-06-26T16:03:11Z")
No, no, and no. As has been pointed out numerous times, it takes a tremendous amount of time and money to get on the ballot and the deadlines are approaching quickly. Johnson/Weld have already been nominated by the Libertarians. It’s not unreasonable to think that they may draw a few votes from those who can’t support Trump but won’t vote for Hillary. He probably won’t matter, although if Trump’s free fall continues, Johnson/Weld might draw enough from voters to push \_Arizona, Missouri, or Georgia into the Democratic column. Jill Stein is a fucking joke. This pathetic woman can’t even win a race for the Massachusetts state assembly. No one needs to listen to the idiotic rants of a city council member who can’t see a difference between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/3 "2016-06-26T16:07:43Z")
The green party got less than half a million votes in 2012, I don’t think they will be a spoiler. The memory of Nader in 2000 is still fresh on a lot of people’s minds. Some Bernie supporters may support her, but it’ll be a small %. I think Johnson could get some votes, but that is because I’m assuming that the people who are hostile to Trump have more hostility than the people who are hostile to Clinton. So it’ll be harder to hold their nose and vote for the lesser of two evils. Sanders has said keeping Trump out of power is very important, he isn’t going to run as a third party candidate because of that. I think the GOP realizes they fucked up, and are just waiting until 2020 at this point. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/4 "2016-06-26T16:17:45Z")
Knowing how powerful incumbency is, I think that presidentially speaking the Republicans are now looking at 2024. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/5 "2016-06-26T16:28:06Z")
In 2024, there will be a number of people \*voting \*who will literally have no living memory of a Republican president. Or of a white male one, for that matter. ---
**Author:** ![Leo\_Krupe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ebca7d/32.png) [@Leo\_Krupe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leo_Krupe)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/6 "2016-06-26T16:28:49Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Knowing how powerful incumbency is, I think that presidentially speaking the Republicans are now looking at 2024. I’ve thought about that too, but obviously it’s too far off to consider seriously. On the other hand, someone correct me if I’m wrong, but only one time in US history has one party held the presidency four consecutive times (FDR). Republicans held it through Reagan I & II, and Bush I. I’m not counting Kennedy/Johnson or Nixon/Ford because the VEEPs came in as fill ins (not that they could be counted as four terms anyway.) But yeah, it could happen. I just think it’s funny to watch the Republican establishment say, "Okay, okay, you got me. I’ll stick with Trump through this election and hope…hope! mind you, that I can sneak some wins downballot. “But you wait until 2020! Three terms of presidential democrats will be all the public can swallow.” And by then, Trump, or someone equally bad, may run and win then. ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/7 "2016-06-26T16:55:49Z")
It’s a grave mistake to assume Trump is down and out. He fights even dirtier than other Repubs, and that’s saying a lot. And the more trouble his campaign is in, the dirtier he’ll fight. In spite of her current status and her organization and her money, this is gonna be a tough campaign for Hillary. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/8 "2016-06-26T17:03:05Z")
The GOP is having a nervous breakdown. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/9 "2016-06-26T17:36:05Z")
> [@panache45](#): > > It’s a grave mistake to assume Trump is down and out. He fights even dirtier than other Repubs, and that’s saying a lot. And the more trouble his campaign is in, the dirtier he’ll fight. In spite of her current status and her organization and her money, this is gonna be a tough campaign for Hillary. Problem is that he fights so dirty that even Republicans are getting soiled and hit by Trump also. And as I noted in another thread there is still one factor against Trump that was not present in past presidential contests; [this time the right wing echo cave has had many cave ins](http://www.theindychannel.com/news/politics/george-will-dumps-republican-party-over-trump), the monolith seen defending the Republican candidate 24/7 is not 100% in favor of the current Republican candidate. Here is another factor against Trump too: in the past one saw dozens of Republican congress critters from the GOP overwhelmingly and quickly **defending** their candidate against Democratic attacks in TV and other media, currently there is mostly crickets. > **[Trump Time Capsule](https://www.theatlantic.com/category/the-daily-trump/)** > [@](#): > > In all previous happenings of the known political world, the party subject to such attacks would have been ready to respond. While Clinton was still speaking, the “Let’s set the record straight!” emails from GOP HQ would have been pouring in. As soon as the speech was over, worthy-seeming surrogates would have crowded the cable news shows to say how unfair the criticism was, how sound and thought-through Trump’s policies were, how he had the experience and judgment for the challenges ahead. > > - In the actual Trump-era political world, the candidate himself put out one of his trademarked Tweets, shown above. (Which the Clinton campaign was obviously prepared for. They instantly pounced on Trump’s “no basis in fact” and conclusively rebutted it.) And people tell me that Fox commentators have been talking about crooked Hillary — I haven’t watched. But … that’s it. > > From the party as a whole? Nothing. Crickets. > > ``` > [ul] > > ``` > > [li]To the best of my knowledge, not one Republican Senator has stepped up to say: “Secretary Clinton’s criticisms are unfair. Donald Trump is the man for the job.” Not Mitch McConnell or Marco Rubio or John McCain.[/li][li] Not any prominent Representatives. Not Paul Ryan or Kevin McCarthy or any of their committee chairmen.[/li][li] Not any governors (though we should check on Chris Christie).[/li][li] Not any former Republican Secretaries of State or Defense or Treasury, or former Republican nominees or presidents, or national security advisors or trade negotiators.[/li][li] Not Reince Priebus or anyone from the party establishment. No one.[/li][li] Nor has any party leader chimed in to support his attack on Gonzalo Curiel, the “Mexican” judge from Indiana. (Update The never-disappointing Alberto Gonzales, White House counsel and Attorney General for GW Bush, has now weighed in to support Trump on the “Mexican” issue. Read that, then please see Garrett Epps’s Trumpo delenda est absolute demolition of the “Mexican” dispute.)[/li][/ul] > > Many Republicans have continued attacking Hillary Clinton. But as far as I’m aware, no prominent party official has stepped up to say: She’s wrong when she says that Donald Trump is completely unfit for the job he seeks. (The Sunday shows tomorrow are still ahead, but they will be three days late — an eternity in modern news-cycle time.) > > And yet: almost all of these people are preparing to accept Trump as their nominee and have said they “support” him. > > You could say it’s “clever” for the Republican establishment to go through the motions of supporting Trump, while making it 100% clear that they know he’s toxically unqualified. I don’t really understand why they think that’s wiser than saying: No, here I draw the line. Maybe later on they’ll explain. For now this note is just to record the state of affairs and of public knowledge, six-plus weeks before the convention. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/10 "2016-06-26T17:43:58Z")
> [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](#): > > The GOP is having a nervous breakdown. The jaw-dropper for me in that poll is, it has 41% of Republicans saying that Trump’s comments indicate an unfair bias against women or minorities or Muslims. I mean, granted, a majority of Democrats said that, and a majority of Independents said it likewise, but, still: 41% of _Republicans?_ ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/11 "2016-06-26T18:21:57Z")
MSNBC stated this morning that a poll including Libertarian and I think a Green candidate has Hillary ahead by 1 point, within the margin of error. 3rd party candidates are taking the votes away from Hillary. Given the Brexit vote that shows Hillary and Obama still don’t understand the dissatisfaction that people have for globalization this election is far from over. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/12 "2016-06-26T18:23:48Z")
> [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](#): > > The GOP is having a nervous breakdown. The party may be having a breakdown, but Trump supporters are not. Trump has a solid core of true believers. Plus, I have a gut feeling that he has a lot of additional supporters who won’t admit it out loud to the pollsters (or even to family members)— but in the privacy of the voting booth will vote for him. If the polls say 39 vs 51 %, I say, add 3 or 4 % for the “secret admirers”. That changes the results to 43 vs 47—only a 4% difference. Allow an additional 2-4% margin of error in the polling , as we just saw in England… I can imagine that after leaving the voting booth, those “secret admirers” who lied on the phone, will also lie to reporters on the sidewalk doing the exit polls. When the actual votes are counted, we could _easily_ have a surprise just like the Brexit vote. On Election night, people who go to bed at midnight after hearing the TV stations confidently declare that Hillary has won, may well wake up the next morning to President Trump. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/13 "2016-06-26T18:40:00Z")
The Brexit vote wasn’t a surprise, the polls were always at the “too close to call” level, the problem was just like with Trump people simply chose to disregard the polls because it seemed silly. What one should take from both situations is not “anything could happen” it is “stop ignoring the polls”. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/14 "2016-06-26T18:59:22Z")
OP, you should study the polls from previous Presidential campaigns–there has always been a lot of volatility. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/15 "2016-06-26T19:04:31Z")
I seem to remember hearing about a poll taken with the 2012 election a year and a half out. Pegged every state but FL. (Ryan might well have cost Romney that one.) ---
**Author:** ![computergeek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e56c9b/32.png) [@computergeek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/computergeek)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/16 "2016-06-26T20:05:10Z")
I agree with panache, don’t count Trump out until the counting (voting) is done. He fights dirty and he’s willing to say the most outrageous things. Considering he’s only down a few points in the polls when he should be totally cratering, he’s capable of pulling out a few surprises and gaining strength, especially if the party forces him to buckle down and fundraise, pick the right VP and all that other good stuff. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/17 "2016-06-26T20:14:33Z")
Trump has no freaking clue what he is doing, all he can manage to do is turn opportunities that should favor him like Brexit into yet another instance when the news cycle is entirely about what a stupid thing he said. He is not some super political genius playing 3D chess, he is a one note chump. He is Bart Simpson on the “I didn’t do it” episode. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/18 "2016-06-26T21:13:02Z")
If you actually look at the poll results, Trump has “collapsed” to where he was in March. Trump is here to stay until and unless he decides to jump ship. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/19 "2016-06-26T21:45:44Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > MSNBC stated this morning that a poll including Libertarian and I think a Green candidate has Hillary ahead by 1 point, within the margin of error. That was a single poll. [Aggregate polling](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html) shows Clinton winning comfortably in a 4-way race. Even the same day as the +1 poll (NBC/WSJ), another had her +10 (ABC/WP). The day before that, Reuters/Ipsos had Clinton +9. But no one stays tuned in to hear how the race is looking like a blow-out versus the eyeballs you get by saying “Horse race!” ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2016, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/20 "2016-06-26T21:46:55Z")
Libertarians wouldn’t get more than a 2% bump in their vote totals if _everybody else_ dropped out of the race. Those people make Trump look sane. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408.md?page=2)