# Trump may be near irreversible collapse. Is multi-candidate free for all near? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 26, 2016, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408 "2016-06-26T15:06:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/61 "2016-06-27T17:40:40Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > Basically, I agree, and the thread predicting the fragmentation of the party after November is mine. But the rejection of science, and just plain facts, can’t be blamed on Donald. That stuff goes at least as far back as Reagan, though it’s been picking up steam in the past 15 years or so. Well yeah, but Trump actually making an extra effort at[not being even wrong](http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Not_even_wrong). The thing to notice is that currently many professional climate change deniers and few skeptic scientists **accept** that global warming is happening. They put a fig leaf on by misleadingly claiming that humans are not the cause and that the warming will not be as bad as the vast majority of experts tell us it can get the longer we do not control emissions. Trump in that New Hampshire rally demonstrated that he and virtually all his followers there ignore **also** what the few skeptical scientists are telling the Republicans leaders regarding the barely plausible explanations they have to explain the observed warming and the changes, Trump and his followers go to the extreme of denying the warming that even skeptical scientists observed. Killing the explanations that skeptics and deniers have constructed for years. [http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/09/06/204604/climate-crock-of-the-week-video-1998-revisited/](http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2009/09/06/204604/climate-crock-of-the-week-video-1998-revisited/) > [@](#): > > ``` > "You've all seen articles say that global warming stopped in 1998. Well, with all due respect, that's being a little bit unfair to the data...it was a huge El Niño year, and the sun was very active in 1998...make an argument that you can get killed on, **and you will kill us [skeptics] all**..if you lose credibility on this issue, you lose the issue." > > ``` > > -Patrick Michaels, 6 September 2009 ---
**Author:** ![Corry\_El](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecae2f/32.png) [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/62 "2016-06-27T18:07:23Z")
As has been mentioned, there isn’t solid evidence the race has changed much lately. The latest WP poll had Trump down 12, the NBC/WSJ 5 head to head, but the latter poll had Clinton up by only 1 when respondents were allowed to pick minor party candidates, which they are allowed to do in the real world. Actually a whole series of polls now has shown Clinton’s margin smaller when minor party choices are allowed than head to head. The potential positive flip side is that the minor choices almost always fade as the election approaches, and the votes might go back more to Clinton. Trump isn’t particularly collapsing. His average poll position is worse than it’s been at some times and better than at other times recently. But to actually win you have to pull ahead (in the right places to get 270 EV obviously, but aren’t going to pull 270 EV down nationally by more than a fraction of a % in today’s alignment, realistically). ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/63 "2016-06-27T22:27:33Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > may his memory never fade so he will remember to the end what a _loser_ he made of himself this year. I sure hope so. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/64 "2016-06-27T22:37:41Z")
> [@Merneith](#): > > The “fundies” didn’t hijack your party. The “fundies” are your party. It’s not my party. I was simply pointing out that demonizing the other party, while perhaps justified, still isn’t reality. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/65 "2016-06-27T23:27:38Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > The party may be having a breakdown, but Trump supporters are not. > > Trump has a solid core of true believers. Plus, I have a gut feeling that he has a lot of additional supporters who won’t admit it out loud to the pollsters (or even to family members)— but in the privacy of the voting booth will vote for him. However there may be equal numbers or more Republican voters who will never admit to voting for the hated Hillary, but do so in the privacy of the voting booth. Or at least not vote for Trump. The number of Sanders voters who say they will vote for Trump has already fallen from 20% to 3%, and will no doubt decline more after Bernie starts attacking Trump louder. > [@](#): > > When the actual votes are counted, we could _easily_ have a surprise just like the Brexit vote. Brexit never conned innocents. Brexit never made fun of disable reporters. Brexit never called Mexicans rapists. Hillary is fast making this about Trump (speaking of fighting dirty) and even nominal Republican Trump supporters aren’t saying he is qualified. It is too big a lie even for Mitch. > [@](#): > > On Election night, people who go to bed at midnight after hearing the TV stations confidently declare that Hillary has won, may well wake up the next morning to President Trump. That was one paper, and polling is tad better today. You can Karl Rove can doubt the polls all you want. Typically third party candidates get fewer votes than predicted, because peoplw won’t want to throw their votes away. But the Libertarians might get more if it looks like voting for Trump is throwing the vote away. But they won’t be hurting Hillary. You also forget that Trump has no money and no organization, and is depending on the RNC which is not super-enthusiastic. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/66 "2016-06-27T23:31:35Z")
> [@panache45](#): > > It’s a grave mistake to assume Trump is down and out. He fights even dirtier than other Repubs, and that’s saying a lot. And the more trouble his campaign is in, the dirtier he’ll fight. In spite of her current status and her organization and her money, this is gonna be a tough campaign for Hillary. Trump can never be defeated. He can quit, launch Trump TV, and say that this was his plan all along. There is no remote way he will expose himself to the risk of being defeated by a woman in a fair fight. Not gonna happen. I think he’ll flame out before the convention. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/67 "2016-06-27T23:42:37Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > . . . I think he’ll flame out before the convention. And give up his chance to make 45-minute speeches every night? No way! He’s going to revel in the acclaim, soak up the applause, and have the very night of his life, nominated “The next President of the United States of America!” He might flame out sometime in September. That would be sweet. But he’s riding this ego-trip through the convention, sure as the Devil made toupees. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2016, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/68 "2016-06-27T23:56:24Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Trump can never be defeated. He can quit, launch Trump TV, and say that this was his plan all along. Leading off with his update of “All in the Family” and himself as Archie Bunker. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2016, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/69 "2016-06-28T00:55:53Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > I mean, Trump then is looking more like President Buchanan than Pat Buchanan. Cold, bro. Stone cold. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2016, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/70 "2016-06-28T02:07:20Z")
[So apparently Trump wants to hold his acceptance speech in a football stadium, because there won’t be enough room for him and his ego in the convention arena](http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/28/politics/donald-trump-venue-cleveland-convention/). I’m sure the Cleveland police will be thrilled to hear that. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2016, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/71 "2016-06-28T02:14:04Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > [So apparently Trump wants to hold his acceptance speech in a football stadium, because there won’t be enough room for him and his ego in the convention arena](http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/28/politics/donald-trump-venue-cleveland-convention/). I’m sure the Cleveland police will be thrilled to hear that. At least the Browns won’t be the biggest loser in their stadium this year. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2016, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/72 "2016-06-28T02:16:22Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > [So apparently Trump wants to hold his acceptance speech in a football stadium, because there won’t be enough room for him and his ego in the convention arena](http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/28/politics/donald-trump-venue-cleveland-convention/). I’m sure the Cleveland police will be thrilled to hear that. That article is dated May 28th. I, for one, haven’t heard anything about it. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2016, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/73 "2016-06-28T02:22:08Z")
I’m wondering if today’s Supreme Court decision might give Trump one last chance to make good with republicans. Trump and the Republicans don’t agree on much these days, but they both have a healthy contempt for women’s rights. This might be the opportunity he’s been waiting for. Maybe Trump re-brands himself as the foul mouth billionaire who never attends church…but swears he will defend Christians. Maybe this is his chance to be a crusader. The scary thing is…he could make it work. ---
**Author:** ![SCSimmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e495f1/32.png) [@SCSimmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SCSimmons)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2016, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/74 "2016-06-28T13:35:35Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > Your wrong. Long periods of one party holding the WH has generally been the rule, rather than the exception. Democratic Republicans held it for 30 years (Jefferson, Monroe, Madison, Adams). And the GOP had more or less a lock on it from the Civil War through to the Depression, with Cleveland and Wilson being the only breaks (well, and Johnson, but he was elected in a unity ticket with a Republican). Johnson, of course, wasn’t elected to the Presidency. But to be totally pedantic about it, technically both he and Lincoln abandoned their respective parties to run on the third-party National Union ticket in 1864. Which means that that despite its long run of dominance, the Republican party has never won more than four straight Presidential elections. (1868/72/76/80 [Grant, Hayes, and Garfield] and 1896/1900/04/08 [McKinley, Roosevelt, and Taft]). The Democrats have them beat at five (1932/36/40/44/48 Roosevelt II and Truman) on the technicality. I doubt anyone will ever threaten the seven straight wins for the Democratic-Republican Party. Unless today’s Democratic and Republican parties end up merging and reforming it, I suppose. If I ever run for President, I’m running as a Whig. Just 'cause. “You’re a what?” “No, a _Whig_.” ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2016, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/75 "2016-06-28T13:53:20Z")
> [@SCSimmons](#): > > If I ever run for President, I’m running as a Whig. Just 'cause. “You’re a what?” “No, a _Whig_.” Stewie: “_Wh_ig. That’s a niiiiice word…_ **Wh** _ig.” Brian: “You’re doing that WH thing again, aren’t you?” Stewie: “_Wh_ig. I hear that _Wh_igs like Kool _Wh_ip.” Brian: “Arrrrrgh…” Stewie: “_Wh_ig.” Disclaimer: I have Whigs in my family tree. So I’ve been saying _Wh_ig for years. ---
**Author:** ![quiltguy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/e47774/32.png) [@quiltguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/quiltguy)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2016, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/76 "2016-06-28T14:36:03Z")
> [@digs](#): > > Disclaimer: I have Whigs in my family tree. So I’ve been saying _Wh_ig for years. There’s a lovely quilt pattern called _Whig Rose_ if you’re lookin’ to spruce up the place. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2016, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/77 "2016-06-28T16:45:21Z")
> [@panache45](#): > > It’s a grave mistake to assume Trump is down and out. He fights even dirtier than other Repubs, and that’s saying a lot. And the more trouble his campaign is in, the dirtier he’ll fight. In spite of her current status and her organization and her money, this is gonna be a tough campaign for Hillary. Trump has no money, and the free media attention he’s coasted on up to now is drying up. He’s toast, not least because he’s plainly bored with the whole campaign now. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2016, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/78 "2016-06-28T17:01:43Z")
And he’s plainly bored because he’s no longer winning. It’s a vicious cycle. Or virtuous, depending upon your perspective. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2016, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/79 "2016-06-28T17:20:53Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > Trump has no money, and the free media attention he’s coasted on up to now is drying up. He’s toast, not least because he’s plainly bored with the whole campaign now. Drying up?.. There is no news media cycle where Trump is not lead, middle and end of the news cast. If he’s getting bored it’s because he’s being compelled from all sides to start acting his age, not his glove size. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2016, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408/80 "2016-06-28T18:03:04Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > Drying up?.. There is no news media cycle where Trump is not lead, middle and end of the news cast. > > If he’s getting bored it’s because he’s being compelled from all sides to start acting his age, not his glove size. I don’t think free media coverage “drying up” is the problem, its just that its basically the default in a general election race. The media devotes basically 24 hour coverage to every sneeze both general election candidates make, so it doesn’t really give Trump an advantage over Hillary, or an advantage past general election candidates didn’t have. Plus, most of the “free media” Trump got during the nomination was focused on how crazy and racist he was. This turned out to work for him, since a plurality of GOP primary voters wanted a crazy racist candidate. But this (hopefully) isn’t the case with the general electorate. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-may-be-near-irreversible-collapse-is-multi-candidate-free-for-all-near/758408.md?page=5)