Trump feasted off of crisis in the republican debates, but he has attempted to do the same and he’s tried to hit Hillary over the head with it, and it’s not working. There’s a big difference between jumping into a mosh pit full of punk head and jumping into a crowd at the state fair. The first crowd will catch you; the latter will part like the Red Sea, let your bones hit the cement, and wonder just what the fuck you’re thinking by jumping off the stage into a crowd or well-adjusted people.
I agree that there might be a significant numbers of voters who aren’t volunteering their support of Trump to pollsters. But I don’t agree with your premise that those 3 to 4 percent (or whatever) are instead telling pollsters they’ll vote for Hillary. The numbers may grow for Trump, but they sure won’t decline for Hillary by the same amount. Trump might go from 39 to 43, maybe, but Hillary wouldn’t fall from 51 to 47 … 49, maybe.
A few other very interesting items from the ABC/WaPo poll - Hillary leads Trump by 62 points among non-whites. Needless to say, that’s a lot, and (to make the Brexit comparison) the US voting pool is far more diverse than that in Great Britain.
The poll also shows Trump is only tied with Hillary among men. Trump is going to have to win men by some huge numbers if he has any hope of moving into the White House in January.
it’s nice to see trump not gaining traction with the majority of americans; but at the same time, 5 months to go is more than enough time to see someone drop the ball and completely lose the initiative.
respectfully speaking, look what happened in canada last year- the leading major federal party going in came dead last. the main reason for that is the leading party (ndp) decided to play it safe, and the 3rd party (liberals) went with inspirational themes-
a question was asked of the leaders (re head coverings for muslim women in public ceremony) and one cautious safe answer did the ndp in.
And one more thing to note, by this time in the Romney vs Obama race Obama was ahead by just 2 points, of course that is not very meaningful this early. But the important thing IMHO is to see how the general trend remained in the current polarized electorate.
Obama kept that slight advantage in the aggregate of polls for ages. And Clinton is doing the same, as in being ahead of trump, the difference is that Clinton is ahead of Trump by higher margins than Obama.
Still, one should not be complacent, many should help to ensure that Trump does lose the election.
1-The Republican Party includes Americans from every faith and tradition, and our policies and positions respect the right of every American to follow his or her beliefs and underscore our reverence for the religious freedom envisioned by the Founding Fathers of our nation and of our party. As a matter of principle, we oppose the creation of any new race-based governments within the United States.
I wonder what this is referring to. They say race-based government, but I assume they mean Sharia law?
*2-Defending Marriage Against An Activist Judiciary
A serious threat to our country’s constitutional order, perhaps even more dangerous than presidential malfeasance, is an activist judiciary, in which some judges usurp the powers reserved to other branches of government. A blatant example has been the court-ordered redefinition of marriage in several States. This is more than a matter of warring legal concepts and ideals. It is an assault on the foundations of our society, challenging the institution which, for thousands of years in virtually every civilization, has been entrusted with the rearing of children and the transmission of cultural values.
A Sacred Contract: Defense of Marriage
That is why Congressional Republicans took the lead in enacting the Defense of Marriage Act, affirming the right of States and the federal government not to recognize same-sex relationships licensed in other jurisdictions. The current Administration’s open defiance of this constitutional principle – in its handling of immigration cases, in federal personnel benefits, in allowing a same-sex marriage at a military base, and in refusing to defend DOMA in the courts – makes a mockery of the President’s inaugural oath. We commend the United States House of Representatives and State Attorneys General who have defended these laws when they have been attacked in the courts. We reaffirm our support for a Constitutional amendment defining marriage as the union of one man and one woman. We applaud the citizens of the majority of States which have enshrined in their constitutions the traditional concept of marriage, and we support the campaigns underway in several other States to do so.*
I had meant the underlying tenets, like small government, pro-business, pro-military, anti-tax. As said, none of these is inherently racist/sexist. Under the core values, there is room for an atheist, lesbian, Native American women to view herself as Republican, even if she is disgusted by most of the base and decries its having been co-opted by fundies.
As politicians have been forced to make everything public and Liberals keep telling everyone that we’re living in a Democracy, rather than a Republic, the base has progressively become more convinced that their representatives should vote the way that they’re mandated to, and will boot them out if they do not. Politicians have to not just pander to the base but also vote with the base (and basest) of their constituents. So I’m not surprised that the Republican party lists sexist and racist things on their site. But, that does not make those things the core values of the Republican party.
Before Nixon, the Republican party was the one leading the way on racial equality and the Democrats were supporting the racists. That wasn’t a matter of the core values changing. It was a matter of the base changing.
As far as the Muslim ban, if you’re enough of a bigot that the ban made sense to you, then you were already in Trump’s column. Perhaps a terror attack might motivate Trump’s voters, but they aren’t going to win any converts because of it.
That’s only true if you define “Republican Core Values” in such a way that it ignores all the harmful things that Republicans do once they finally get into office - starting pointless wars, shifting the tax burden to the poor and middle class, enacting laws to protect discrimination against gay people, denying healthcare to women and children, weakening social security and medicare, prioritizing the profits of the insurance companies over public health, slashing education funding, fighting anti-polluting regulations, fighting the ERA, fighting Family Leave, fighting affirmative action.
The “fundies” didn’t hijack your party. The “fundies” are your party.
The Republicans can say what they want but the rest of us are free to draw our own conclusions about just what exactly the Republicans “value”.
After Nixon this reversed itself – the Republican party changed to try and get these racist voters, while the Democrats changed to try and get black voters.
Not entirely. HST integrated the armed forces. It was LBJ who spearheaded the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act. Sure, he had the help of many liberal Republicans, but if LBJ hadn’t been pushing it, it wouldn’t have happened. When the South was solidly Democratic, sure the Democrats had more racists. But all of the old Dixiecrats became Republican, thanks to Nixon’s Southern Strategy.
Because repudiating Trump is repudiating the very intelligence of a large percentage of their base voters. They are wedded to the concept of “The people (that is, the Republican people, the only REAL Americans) have spoken.”
Objection Your Honor, that line about the “very intelligence” assumes facts not in evidence.
Yeah, I’m aware of what many on the base are accepting the “Potemkin village” show of unity. But what I see is that there is a very significant percentage of Republicans that are smart enough to realize that even a passive support given to Trump will soil the whole Republican party. And now we see many Republicans that will be “busy” elsewhere and not at the convention. It shows that besides the Republicans that are brave enough to say “no way” to Trump that there are a lot who are voting with their feet while telling the base that they endorse Trump.
Basically, I agree, and the thread predicting the fragmentation of the party after November is mine. But the rejection of science, and just plain facts, can’t be blamed on Donald. That stuff goes at least as far back as Reagan, though it’s been picking up steam in the past 15 years or so.
