# Trump speech live 01/08/2019: follow-along thread. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 9, 2019, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439 "2019-01-09T01:21:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/181 "2019-01-09T23:14:21Z")
> [@](#): > > 92% of bettors wagered that Trump would tell more than 3.5 lies > [@wguy123](#): > > What were those other 8% smocking? In fairness, the 8% may have been betting that mainstream media both-siderism and cowardice would deflate the count used as a criterion (the Washington Post’s fact-checking live blog) like a Patriots football. ---
**Author:** ![wguy123](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wguy123/32/3161_2.png) [@wguy123](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wguy123)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/182 "2019-01-09T23:34:32Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > In fairness, the 8% may have been betting that mainstream media both-siderism and cowardice would deflate the count used as a criterion (the Washington Post’s fact-checking live blog) like a Patriots football. Yep, the long-shot. Like betting a dollar on the old nag to win. If that bet comes in, your $1 becomes $1000. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/183 "2019-01-09T23:35:54Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Seriously I am not trying to be snarky here. But yes, hitting the low for a 12 month period does mean that “he’s become less popular than he has been over the past year.” (Well 10 months since February '18 saw him at 39.) > > To me the significance remains how _flat_ that range has been relative to other presidents. By two months in he had settled into basically a six point range of approval ratings, peaking near 43 and bottoming out near 37. That is very narrow and 40 would be right in the middle of that range. > > The flatness speaks to how entrenched opinions are about him. Big negative stories that would have caused huge swings for other presidents barely move the needle. For that matter something positive, like a good economic report, hardly moves him up. The small scale of his current drop given the shutdown and his stating ahead of time that he would own it is more notable to me than that he is back to his term’s mean. The weird thing is, I _agree_ with every word in your post here. I just think it makes my point! 🙂 “The flatness speaks to how entrenched opinions are about him. Big negative stories that would have caused huge swings for other presidents barely move the needle. For that matter something positive, like a good economic report, hardly moves him up” is why it would be a Big Fucking Deal if something moved him _out_ of this narrow range his approval has been in for nearly a year now. It would suggest that _something_ had broken through at least some population subgroup’s crystallized opinions about Trump. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/184 "2019-01-09T23:38:40Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > Could you expand on this a little? Do you think Obama 1) wrote a speech, 2) provided an advance copy to the networks, 3) the networks reviewed the speech, thought “decent sentence structure but I don’t like the character arc” and 4) decided not to air it? After the whole Donna Brazille thing, I’ve become rather circumspect about underestimating the backroom communication channels between the media and the Democratic Party, but if I had to hazard a guess in that case, I suspect it had more to do with ratings than character arc. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/185 "2019-01-09T23:48:38Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > After the whole Donna Brazille thing, I’ve become rather circumspect about underestimating the backroom communication channels between the media and the Democratic Party, but if I had to hazard a guess in that case, I suspect it had more to do with ratings than character arc. Train wrecks attract more eyeballs indeed. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/186 "2019-01-10T00:18:06Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > The weird thing is, I _agree_ with every word in your post here. I just think it makes my point! 🙂 > > “The flatness speaks to how entrenched opinions are about him. Big negative stories that would have caused huge swings for other presidents barely move the needle. For that matter something positive, like a good economic report, hardly moves him up” is why it would be a Big Fucking Deal if something moved him _out_ of this narrow range his approval has been in for nearly a year now. It would suggest that _something_ had broken through at least some population subgroup’s crystallized opinions about Trump. I guess you see breaking out of the three point range he’s been in for 10 months as more meaningful of breaking through crystalized thoughts than I do. Which is fair enough. To me these last ten months are him floating near his ceiling as he’s had lots of what would have been good enough economic reports and to have put another president _way_ up there. The current drop is just an overdue return to his mean. Approval of 40 +/- 3 is his center of gravity. A run of bad events can drive him to the low end, a lack of major disasters and good economic reports will keep him on the high end, but so long as he’s traveling in that channel it is nothing exciting, either way. Agreed that getting out of the narrow range would be something; I just think of the narrow range as the six point one, not the last ten month’s three point one. Meanwhile these tantrums are aimed at his hard base, not at reaching to leaners. I’d suspect his hard base is approving more strongly now than say last month at his peak of 43. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/187 "2019-01-10T00:44:06Z")
> [@wguy123](#): > > Yep, the long-shot. Like betting a dollar on the old nag to win. If that bet comes in, your $1 becomes $1000. Actually, the bet wasn’t offering long odds in either direction: > [@](#): > > BookMaker.eu offered odds of -145 for more than 3.5 lies and +115 for fewer than 3.5 lies, meaning that if a person bet $145 on Trump telling four or more lies, they would win an additional $100, BuzzFeed News reported. If I’m interpreting the listing correctly, someone betting on less than 3.5 lies would wager $115 to collect $100 (plus the original $115) if Lord Orange had an unusual interlude of honesty. Basically, the site set the “3.5” line by trying to guess a combination of “what number of lies will he be about equally likely to reach or not” and “what number of lies will attract roughly equal ‘over’ and ‘under’ betting so we make a reasonable profit either way”, and guessed much too low. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 1:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/188 "2019-01-10T01:01:09Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > Basically, the site set the “3.5” line by trying to guess a combination of “what number of lies will he be about equally likely to reach or not” and “what number of lies will attract roughly equal ‘over’ and ‘under’ betting so we make a reasonable profit either way”, and guessed much too low. They knew they were in trouble before it aired: > [@](#): > > The maximum wager was set at $2,000, though the biggest bets on Trump lying were $25,000, $20,000, and $15,000, John Lester, an odds consultant, told BuzzFeed News. > > Lester said that 92% of bettors wagered that Trump would tell more than 3.5 lies and that BookMaker.eu would have to pay out $276,424. > > “It’s a bad day for Truthiness and Bookmaker,” he told BuzzFeed News. “We knew we were in trouble early with this one.” > > SOURCE: [Trump Lies During Oval Office Speech Earn Gamblers $270,000](https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-lies-during-oval-office-speech-earn-gamblers-270000-2019-1) ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/189 "2019-01-10T03:30:17Z")
[Dotard-1 explains the problems with a wall…](https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1083169537263054849?s=19) ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/190 "2019-01-10T06:23:19Z")
I gotta think the betting story is bogus. A “lie” is a qualified judgement call, it is not a definite and clarified thing. No way this bet is real, no bookie accepts a wager than depends on argument and interpretation. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/191 "2019-01-10T11:54:05Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > I gotta think the betting story is bogus. A “lie” is a qualified judgement call, it is not a definite and clarified thing. No way this bet is real, no bookie accepts a wager than depends on argument and interpretation. From the initial post of the subthread: > [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > People who bet that Individual 1 would tell more than 3.5 lies during his speech won $276,424 from BookMaker.eu after the bookmaking site, _using the Washington Post’s fact checking_, declared that he had told 6 lies. > [https://www.sfgate.com/technology/businessinsider/article/People-who-bet-on-how-many-lies-Trump-would-tell-13520681.php](https://www.sfgate.com/technology/businessinsider/article/People-who-bet-on-how-many-lies-Trump-would-tell-13520681.php)? ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/192 "2019-01-10T12:43:19Z")
> [@Evil\_Economist](#): > > He didn’t even hit a lie a minute? Probably he was held back by only being able to speak as quickly as he could read. I bet if he’d been winging it he’d have hit his usual 1LPM. I, for one, was disappointed he didn’t go off-script during the speech. It truly would have been a emperor has no clothes moment. > [@DSeid](#): > > The flatness speaks to how entrenched opinions are about him. Big negative stories that would have caused huge swings for other presidents barely move the needle. For that matter something positive, like a good economic report, hardly moves him up. The small scale of his current drop given the shutdown and his stating ahead of time that he would own it is more notable to me than that he is back to his term’s mean. If we can extend back to his candidacy, another disappointment I had was when – as I complained in another thread – neither 'grab ‘em by the pussy’ nor bashing a gold star family moved his approval much or for long. I’ve no coffee yet; what’s the term for when someone has bought the snake oil then doubles down rather than say they might have made a mistake? ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/193 "2019-01-10T12:51:46Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > I’ve no coffee yet; what’s the term for when someone has bought the snake oil then doubles down rather than say they might have made a mistake? idiot? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/194 "2019-01-10T13:00:06Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > I’ve no coffee yet; what’s the term for when someone has bought the snake oil then doubles down rather than say they might have made a mistake? [Sunk cost fallacy](https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFallacies/173/Sunk-Cost-Fallacy) I think is the one you are thinking of. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/195 "2019-01-10T13:28:30Z")
[BEHOLD THE POWER OF THE STEEL SLAT!](https://twitter.com/jacobsoboroff/status/1083349170490986501?s=19) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/196 "2019-01-10T13:39:04Z")
I trust we’ll hear no more about Obama using a teleprompter. This guy looked worse than an SNL guest reading the cue cards during a sketch. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/197 "2019-01-10T13:41:20Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > I trust we’ll hear no more about Obama using a teleprompter. This guy looked worse than an SNL guest reading the cue cards during a sketch. Hell, he looked worse than Captain Hammer reading “I hate the homeless…” _(flip cue card)_ “…ness problem that plagues our city”. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/198 "2019-01-10T15:47:09Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > [BEHOLD THE POWER OF THE STEEL SLAT!](https://twitter.com/jacobsoboroff/status/1083349170490986501?s=19) But…but those steel slats were _artistically designed!_ HOW COULD THEY DEFILE THEM LIKE THAT!! Like throwing mud on the Mona Lisa, I tell ya. 😉 ETA: **Steve MB** : what an absolutely (Dr.) Horrible comparison! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/199 "2019-01-10T15:58:12Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > But…but those steel slats were _artistically designed!_ **HOW COULD THEY DEFILE THEM LIKE THAT**!! > > Like throwing mud on the Mona Lisa, I tell ya. 😉 > > ETA: **Steve MB** : what an absolutely (Dr.) Horrible comparison! 😉 They didn’t. They used a DESAW. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439/200 "2019-01-10T16:03:32Z")
If the steel slats can be used by agents to see if anyone is trying to get through, can they also be used by immigrants to see if any agents are nearby while they easily cut through a slat or two and slip through? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/trump-speech-live-01-08-2019-follow-along-thread/827439.md?page=11)